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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 TOKYO 002836 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST 
DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS 
OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY 
ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 05/23/06 
 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, post-Koizumi 
candidates, USFJ realignment, education law revision 
 
(2) Outgoing Keidanren Chairman Okuda expresses eagerness to 
restore strained Japan-China relations; Resumption of donations 
likely to affect politics 
 
(3) China may attempt to divide Japan 
 
(4) Cabinet decision on Futenma relocation will not specify 
"elimination of danger" on grounds that it was confirmed by 
defense chief; Flight paths to be improved instead 
 
(5) Yosano masterminds establishment of Council on Unified Reform 
of Fiscal and Economic Systems; Panel will likely have great 
impact on post-Koizumi administration; Takenaka's influence on 
wane 
 
(6) Post-Koizumi race: Researching Taro Aso (Part 4) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Poll on Koizumi cabinet, political parties, post-Koizumi 
candidates, USFJ realignment, education law revision 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Full) 
May 23, 2006 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage, rounded off. Parentheses denote the 
results of the last survey conducted April 22-23.) 
 
Q: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet? 
 
Yes       45       (50) 
No        39       (36) 
 
Q: Which political party do you support now? 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)                    34       (38) 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto)       19       (17) 
New Komeito (NK)                                   3        (3) 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP)                     2        (2) 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto)          2        (2) 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto)         0        (0) 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon)            0        (0) 
Liberal League (LL or Jiyu Rengo)                  0        (0) 
Other political parties                            1        (0) 
None                                              37       (34) 
No answer + don't know                             2        (4) 
 
Q: As likely candidates for the next prime minister after Mr. 
Koizumi, there are now some names coming up, such as Mr. Taro 
Aso, Mr. Shinzo Abe, Mr. Sadakazu Tanigaki, and Mr. Yasuo Fukuda. 
Who do you think is appropriate for the next prime minister? 
 
Taro Aso                3        (4) 
Shinzo Abe             41       (45) 
Sadakazu Tanigaki       1        (3) 
Yasuo Fukuda           29       (20) 
Other persons          16       (17) 
 
TOKYO 00002836  002 OF 010 
 
 
 
Q: What would you like the next prime minister to prioritize in 
particular? (One choice only) 
 
Improve Japan's foreign relations       14 
Economic stimulus measures              21 
Fiscal reconstruction                   14 
Low birthrate countermeasures           25 
Correct economic disparities            21 
 
Q: The Japanese and US governments have agreed on the realignment 
of US forces in Japan. To what extent are you interested in the 
US military's realignment? (One choice only) 
 
Very interested            23 
Somewhat interested        49 
Not very interested        21 
Not interested at all       5 
 
Q: The Japanese and US governments have decided to relocate 
Futenma airfield to another site in Okinawa Prefecture and 
redeploy US Marine Corps troops from Okinawa to Guam in order to 
alleviate Okinawa's base-hosting burden in the process of 
realigning the US military presence in Japan. What do you think 
about the US military's realignment this time? (One choice only) 
 
Appreciate very much              7 
Appreciate somewhat              41 
Don't appreciate very much       35 
Don't appreciate at all          10 
 
Q: According to the agreement reached this time, Japan will pay 
for new facilities to be built along with US military base 
relocation. Japan's cost-sharing burden includes a fiscal outlay 
of about 700 billion yen for infrastructure construction in Guam. 
Is this cost-sharing burden convincing to you? 
 
Yes       17 
No        77 
 
Q: Do you think the government has fulfilled its accountability 
to the Japanese people for the realignment of US forces this 
time? 
 
Yes       6 
No       84 
 
Q: Do you think this US military realignment will be a plus to 
Japan's national security, or do you otherwise think it will be a 
minus? 
 
Plus        39 
Minus       26 
 
Q: The government has introduced a bill to the Diet to amend the 
Fundamentals of Education Law, stipulating an ideal of education. 
The DPJ has also worked out its counterproposal. To what extent 
are you interested in revising the education law? (One choice 
only) 
 
Very interested             33 
Somewhat interested         44 
Not very interested         18 
 
TOKYO 00002836  003 OF 010 
 
 
Not interested at all        4 
 
Q: Patriotism is now a point of contention over the issue of 
revising the education law. To what extent do you think you have 
patriotism in you? (One choice only) 
 
Very much           28 
Somewhat            51 
Not very much       14 
Not at all           5 
 
Q: Are you in favor of including the wording "love Japan and its 
land" in the education law as an objective of education? 
 
Yes       56 
No        29 
 
Q: What do you think should be done about the education law? (One 
choice only) 
 
Amend the law at the current Diet session        12 
Continue discussions without taking a vote at the current Diet 
session                                          73 
No need to amend the law                          9 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted May 20-21 across 
the nation over the telephone on a computer-aided random digit 
dialing (RDD) basis. Respondents were chosen from among the 
nation's voting population on a three-stage random-sampling 
basis. Valid answers were obtained from 1,813 persons (53%). 
 
(2) Outgoing Keidanren Chairman Okuda expresses eagerness to 
restore strained Japan-China relations; Resumption of donations 
likely to affect politics 
 
YOMIURI (Page 11) (Full) 
May 19, 2006 
 
Hiroshi Okuda held his last press conference as chairman of the 
Japan Business Federation (Nihon Keidanren) before leaving office 
at the regular general meeting on May 24. Okuda said that the 
prime minister and he were "on the same wave length." However, he 
expressed eagerness to repair Japan-China relations that have 
been strained over the prime minister's visits to Yasukuni 
Shrine. Some have labeled Okuda as a "giant among Keidanren 
chairmen," but he has still left many tasks for incoming chairman 
Fujio Mitarai to tackle. 
 
"When I assumed the chairmanship, a sense of helplessness and 
uncertainty loomed over the Japanese economy. Later, however, 
politics and the economy were put back on the right course and 
both are now in considerably good shape. I was lucky." 
 
Summarizing seven years in office, he made the above remark at 
his final press conference. He gave his own achievements a mark 
of 70 or 80 out of 100 points. 
 
Backed by the strength of Toyota Motor Corporation, from which he 
hailed, Chairman Okuda has been regarded as the most influential 
chief executive in Japan's business world. Business circles 
always paid attention to his candid remarks. 
 
Okuda has supported Prime Minister Koizumi's reform initiative. 
 
TOKYO 00002836  004 OF 010 
 
 
Regarding mergers and acquisition (M&A), however, he drew a clear 
line with the American M&A style that lets the strong prey on the 
weak and he placed importance instead on a conventional Japanese 
management style. Keidanren allowed Livedoor Co. to become a 
member even after the discovery of its violation of the 
Securities and Exchange Law. Asked about this, Okuda admits: 
"That was a mistake." Regarding recent takeover cases, including 
a business tie-up between Rakuten and TBS, he criticized as 
"lazy" the executives of such companies for not paying attention 
to the moves of their companies' shares." 
 
"(Japan-China relations) have been cold politically but hot 
economically. It is also necessary for the business sector to 
work on the political world in order to bring about a thaw in 
relations with China. We in the private sector would like to do 
our best to attain that end." 
 
Many former business leaders cite as Okuda's greatest achievement 
his efforts to make it easier to relay the business world's views 
to the government. Regarding his ties with Prime Minister 
Koizumi, Okuda said: "Since the prime minister and I are on the 
same wave length regarding structural reforms, we get along well 
with each other." He has never criticized the prime minister's 
visits to Yasukuni Shrine, but he said that even after he steps 
down, he would do his best to repair relations with China. 
 
Keidanren resumed political donations in 2004, defining political 
donations as "a part of our contribution to society." The total 
amount of political donations by Keidanren member companies 
increased from about 1.9 billion yen in 2003 to about 2.5 billion 
yen in 2005, resulting in increasing Keidanren's influence over 
politics. 
 
"To my regret, scandals involving companies were exposed one 
after another. I was unable to demonstrate leadership as 
chairman." 
 
Okuda also made the above statement. He reviewed Keidanren's 
Business Behavior Chapter and set up a system to enable Keidanren 
to urge problem members to leave the organization. He added: "We 
were able to get many hits, but there were no home runs." On tax 
reform, he succeeded in persuading the government to reduce taxes 
on investments in such areas as research and development, and 
information technology, but the corporate tax rate has yet to be 
lowered, despite Keidanren's request. On pension reform in 2004, 
Keidanren's call for holding down the insurance rate to 15% was 
also unsuccessful. Senior Keidanren members were chagrined at the 
result, recognizing it as "our clear defeat." The Okuda vision in 
January 2003 proposed raising the consumption tax, but this 
proposal has also been left unattended. 
 
(3) China may attempt to divide Japan 
 
SANKEI (Page 3) (Full) 
May 21, 2006 
 
China experts see changes in China's policy toward Japan. Some of 
them are pointing to China's changeover to a flexible stance of 
dealing with Japan, while others are noting China's switchover to 
a tactic of dividing Japan, as is evident from a rush of 
delegations from the government and ruling coalition this year to 
visit China. 
 
 
TOKYO 00002836  005 OF 010 
 
 
In February, Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Toshihiro Nikai 
visited China, where Nikai met with Premier Wen Jiabao and 
Commerce Minister Bo Xilai. In March, Finance Minister Sadakazu 
Tanigaki visited that country to meet with Finance Minister Jin 
Renqing, and Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Heizo 
Takenaka also went over to China. Meanwhile, the ruling coalition 
has also sent delegates to China. In February, Hidenao Nakagawa, 
chairman of the LDP's policy board, and other ruling executives 
attended a meeting in Beijing of officers from the Japanese and 
Chinese ruling parties. In March, seven organizations for 
friendship between Japan and China sent their members to China, 
including former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, who presides 
over the Japan Association for the Promotion of International 
Trade (JAPIT), and former Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura, who 
chairs the Japan-China Friendship Parliamentary League. 
 
In the meantime, there have been almost no VIP visits from China 
to Japan, with the exception of Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei 
and few others, ever since Vice Premier Wu Yi suddenly canceled 
her meeting with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and returned 
home in May last year. 
 
As seen from those visits, there have only been one-way 
pilgrimages from Tokyo to Beijing. "China is probably thinking to 
shake up the post-Koizumi candidates expected to run in this 
September's LDP presidential election," one LDP lawmaker said. In 
March, Wen stressed China's policy toward Japan, recounting that 
China would continue a strategic dialogue with Japan, promote 
private-sector exchange programs, and develop economic trade 
relations. "Once the Chinese economy falls into minus growth, 
they will need Japan's cooperation," a source close to Japan- 
China relations said. This source added, "They have a sense of 
crisis, thinking to themselves that if they only keep up 
attacking the prime minister for his Yasukuni visits, they won't 
be able to find a way out." 
 
Meanwhile, China has been unilaterally exploring natural gas near 
the equidistance line of Japanese and Chinese exclusive economic 
zone (EEZ) waters in the East China Sea. As is well known, there 
are still many difficult problems lying between Japan and China. 
One of these pending issues is disposing of poison gas shells and 
other chemical weapons that reportedly were left behind in China 
by the Imperial Japanese Army. Another problem is China's claim 
over Japan's inherent territory, the Senkaku isles. In addition, 
there is the question of how to demarcate EEZ waters. China's 
military spending is also unclear. 
 
How will Japan face up to China? Japan will now have to conduct 
its own strategic diplomacy. 
 
(4) Cabinet decision on Futenma relocation will not specify 
"elimination of danger" on grounds that it was confirmed by 
defense chief; Flight paths to be improved instead 
 
OKINAWA TIMES (Page 2) (Full) 
May 23, 2006 
 
TOKYO - Turning a deaf ear to Okinawa's strong call, the 
government has decided not to specify the "elimination of the 
danger" of Futenma Air Station in the planned cabinet decision on 
the implementation of the Japan-US final report on US force 
realignment, a senior Defense Agency official revealed yesterday. 
The official explained that the decision was made based on the 
 
TOKYO 00002836  006 OF 010 
 
 
perception that the matter has been confirmed by an agreement 
between Okinawa and the central government. 
 
 ASTERISK   ASTERISK   ASTERISK   ASTERISK   ASTERISK 
 
The official played up the government's plan to reduce the risks 
by such measures as making corrections in the flight paths at 
Futenma Air Station until it is completely relocated to the 
coastal portion of Camp Schwab in 2014. 
 
Touching on Okinawa's strong reaction to the wording of the 
cabinet decision, which has been delayed, the official noted: 
"(The last ten years) has been an accumulation of such responses. 
That kind of reaction from Okinawa will not result in reducing 
the burden on the prefecture." The official underscored the 
government's plan to advance work based on the agreement with 
Okinawa. 
 
In a regular press conference yesterday, Administrative Vice 
Defense Minister Takemasa Moriya indicated that a cabinet 
decision would not be made until after the 4th Pacific Islands 
Summit to be held in Okinawa on May 26-27, saying: "The earlier, 
the better. But given the local circumstances, we have no 
deadline." 
 
He alluded to the government's possibly making the cabinet 
decision next week, noting, "We want to decide on it as soon as 
possible by obtaining local understanding and cooperation." 
 
Cabinet Office, Nago mayor agree that Defense Agency must not 
race to hasty cabinet decision 
 
NAGO -- Yoshinobu Higashi, director-general for Okinawa affairs 
of the Cabinet Office, called on Nago Mayor Yoshikazu Shimabukuro 
at his office yesterday. The two leaders shared the view that the 
government should avoid a hasty cabinet decision on US force 
realignment, which the Defense Agency is aiming for. 
 
After the talks with Higashi, Shimabukuro said, "Word is out in 
the Defense Agency that a cabinet decision would be made on (May) 
30 or (June) 2. But we agreed with that side (Cabinet Office) 
that a decision must not be made hastily." He also explained that 
Higashi had not briefed him on the proposed cabinet decision in 
detail. 
 
Tokyo and Washington has agreed to build 1,800-meter runways to 
relocate the heliport functions of Futenma Air Station to the 
coastline of Camp Schwab. Nago in reaction demanded that the size 
of the runways be reduced to 1,500 meters. Okinawa Vice Governor 
Hirotaka Makino also conveyed his opposition to the two-runway 
plan to Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Masahiro Futahashi. Many 
Okinawa residents are opposed to the cabinet making a decision on 
the assumption that the prefecture will approve it. 
 
Shimabukuro commented about proposed economic packages: "We will 
discuss the matter thoroughly with the central government." 
 
(5) Yosano masterminds establishment of Council on Unified Reform 
of Fiscal and Economic Systems; Panel will likely have great 
impact on post-Koizumi administration; Takenaka's influence on 
wane 
 
MAINICHI (Page 3) (Excerpts) 
 
TOKYO 00002836  007 OF 010 
 
 
May 23, 2006 
 
The Council on Unified Reform of Fiscal and Economic Systems 
(CURFES) of the government and ruling parties yesterday held its 
first meeting. It is a supreme decision-making panel launched by 
State Minister for Economic and Fiscal Policy Hajime Yosano. The 
Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, the central command for 
the Koizumi reform initiative, will also be integrated into this 
panel. Yosano has relegated a major task of cutting government 
spending to Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Policy Research 
Council Chairman Hidenao Nakagawa, with whom he had once engaged 
in a fierce tax hike argument. In the meantime, he has asked 
Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Toshihiro Nakagawa to draft 
an outline of an economic growth strategy, in which Nakagawa had 
dug in his heels. Yosano has thus created a new role-sharing 
system, diminishing the presence of Internal Affairs and 
Communications Minister Takenaka. 
 
Close-up 2006 
 
Many members of the government and the ruling parties are 
surprised to see key officials replaced in only a couple of 
months. They attribute it to Takenaka rapidly losing power and 
Yosano expanding his role in policy discussions in the 
administration. 
 
Fierce debates between Yosano and Sadakazu Tanigaki on one hand 
and Nakagawa and Takenaka on the other have continued since last 
year over such issues as raising the consumption tax or an 
economic growth rate to be targeted. 
 
On May 11, Yosano and Nikai visited Nakagawa at the LDP 
headquarters and signed an agreement document delegating Nikai to 
finalize an outline of an economic growth strategy. Discussing 
economic growth strategy is one of the areas for which the CURFES 
is responsible. The launching of the panel stems from this 
concept, following a successful effort by Yosano. Behind such a 
shrewd effort is his desire to leave Takenaka out and to bring 
Nikai into the fold. 
 
On the other hand, Nakagawa, who regards himself as the guardian 
of Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, a frontrunner in the race 
to elect a successor to Koizumi, wants to obtain prospects for 
fiscal reform by using the CURFES. Though he is lined up with 
Yosano, gaps in views on such issues as hiking the consumption 
tax still remain between the two. During the first meeting on the 
22nd, Nakagawa did not forget to make it clear that the 
government should fully discuss the issue with the party. Their 
relations are like those of enemies who were placed by fate in 
the same boat. 
 
The next administration will have to come up with a policy of 
succeeding, developing and correcting Koizumi's reform line when 
compiling the fiscal 2007 budget, while making efforts to 
reconstruct the foreign policy line from October through 
December. Due to the limited time available, whatever conclusion 
the panel reaches on package reform of expenditures and revenues 
will likely be respected as is. Discussions by the panel will set 
a direction for economic policy and budget compilation by the 
next administration. The development of discussions by the panel 
and the fate of leadership could set the political agenda for the 
post-Koizumi administration. 
 
 
TOKYO 00002836  008 OF 010 
 
 
(6) Post-Koizumi race: Researching Taro Aso (Part 4) 
 
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full) 
May 20, 2006 
 
Taro Aso started playing golf after becoming a politician. In 
defiance of his father, Aso had been determined never to play 
golf. But he changed his mind on the advice of Susumu Nikai, a 
veteran politician from the Kyushu region, where Aso also comes 
from. Nikai told Aso that politicians should either play mahjong 
or golf. Aso is now a player with a single-digit handicap. 
 
Failure of business 
 
He has a sense of pragmatism that was cultivated from his 
experience of being a businessman. He failed a foray into the 
food services industry and a venture into ore mining overseas. He 
once said that those who listened to other persons' advice should 
be suitable for a company president's post 
 
During the 2001 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential 
campaign, in which he competed with Junichiro Koizumi and Shizuka 
Kamei, Aso stressed the importance of concentrating funding in 
public works projects such as the construction of a Tokyo outer 
ring road underground, the laying of fiber-optic cables, and 
improvement in international airports. Drawing a line with 
Koizumi, Aso stated in the campaign, "It is necessary to prepare 
anesthetics to ease the pain caused by reforms. Economic recovery 
is needed for fiscal reform." He went along with Koizumi's reform 
drive only after Koizumi won big in the presidential race, though 
he has raised opposing views from time to time. 
 
Regarding the widening social disparity issue, a possible major 
campaign issue in the September LDP presidential election, Aso 
said, "People feel a social divide when reforms are carried out 
rapidly. But I don't think the social gap has widened." He has 
criticized the idea of placing priority on fiscal reconstruction 
by an early consumption tax hike, saying, "Reform may change 
things for the worse. Consideration should be given to regional 
areas." He is now consciously playing up differences between his 
reform policy and Koizumi's. 
 
He has made controversial remarks, such as his claim that the 
Korean people were willing to change their Korean names to 
Japanese ones; that Taiwan is a country; and that China's 
military power is a "threat" to Japan. One of his aides said, "He 
has little conception about watching what he says." 
 
Aso has the image of being a hawk politically, but he basically 
is able accept the reality. He wrote this in a local newspaper 
about the Japan-US alliance, "Even children have a wisdom that it 
is good to get along with a strong person if you have a dangerous 
person around you." He said, "It's wrong to call Japan's defeat 
in the war as the end of the war. He also clearly stated: "The 
Self-Defense Forces are a military." This kind of his thinking is 
similar to that of Koizumi, who has brought "common sense" to the 
security argument. 
 
Refrains voluntarily from visiting Yasukuni Shrine 
 
The major issue is whether he will visit Yasukuni Shrine (if he 
becomes prime minister). Aso first visited the Shinto shrine at 
the age of 11 on April 28, 1952, when the San Francisco Treaty 
 
TOKYO 00002836  009 OF 010 
 
 
came into effect, along with his grandfather, then Prime Minister 
Shigeru Yoshida. He never forgets his grandfather who always 
bowed his head at the shrine. His grandfather told him, "Today is 
the day when Japan becomes independent." 
 
Aso continues to support Koizumi's shrine visits, saying, "Other 
countries should not interfere in the prime minister's visits to 
the shrine." There are differences in specifics between Aso and 
Shinzo Abe, but the public sees them as alike. 
 
Aso has visited Yasukuni Shrine every year since he became a 
politician, but he stopped visiting there after assuming the 
foreign minister's post. He explained: "I must give preference to 
national interests over personal beliefs. It is problem to 
entrust to one religion the important task of honoring the 
spirits of the nation's war dead." He indicated in his remarks 
that he might continue to refrain from visiting the shrine. He 
also indicated that he was looking into making Yasukuni Shrine a 
secular organization or having Class-A war criminals removed from 
the shrine where they are enshrined. 
 
However, Aso's strategy of playing up his differences with Abe is 
now a double-edged sword since forces opposing Abe have turned to 
supporting Yasuo Fukuda. Aso is now looking for ways to play up 
his own political identity in between Abe and Fukuda. 
 
Asia diplomacy 
 
Improvement in the transparency of China's military power is 
important, and Japan welcomes China's constructive involvement in 
East Asia. The US military's deterrence power will be maintained 
and strategic ties with India and Australia will be strengthened. 
Regarding the North Korea issue, Japan, the United States, and 
South Korea will make efforts in unison. (Speech delivered in May 
in Washington) 
 
Yasukuni Shrine issue 
 
We should think of a system under which the war dead would 
appreciate our visits to the shrine. It is a significant problem 
that (Class-A war criminals) who were not killed in the war are 
enshrined. (Speech in May in Tokyo) 
 
Social divide 
 
Those who live in regional areas feel more a sense of remoteness 
than those living in urban areas. Consideration should be given 
to local areas. I wonder why everybody thinks all of Japan should 
be like Tokyo. (interview in May by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun) 
 
Consumption tax hike 
 
I am not a fundamentalist when it comes to fiscal reconstruction. 
When the economy is rising, what should be avoided is doing 
something that will nip recovery in the bud. The targeted 
consumption rate should be 10%. (Interview in January by the 
Nihon Keizai Shimbun) 
 
Constitutional reform 
 
The Constitution should be amended. It was established under the 
US Occupation. Japan and the international situation have greatly 
changed since then. Since environmental issues have now come up, 
 
TOKYO 00002836  010 OF 010 
 
 
I think Article 9 is not the only one that should be amended. 
(Press conference in January) 
 
SCHIEFFER