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PP RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSF #0661/01 1301147
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 101147Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1885
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000661 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MARR PINR SOCI RU BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: EXTREME NATIONALISTS REAPING WHAT THEY 
SOW 
 
REF: SOFIA 0647 
 
SOFIA 00000661  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The extreme nationalist party Ataka is 
reeling from self-inflicted wounds just one year after its 
founding.  A recent scandal steming from the erratic behavior 
of several Ataka members following a highway accident has 
contributed to a sharp decline in the party's support and led 
to further splits and likely defections within the already 
dwindling group. The party's fiery leader Volen Siderov is 
expected to be stripped of his parliamentary immunity to face 
charges of perjury, inducement of perjury and obstruction of 
justice related to the incident.  Siderov's hope of drawing 
huge crowds of protestors during the NATO ministerial 
fizzled, leading the mainstream press to adopt a largely 
disparaging tone. Despite the party's current travails, it 
may be too soon to begin writing Ataka's obituary.  Given the 
public's persistent discontent with the mainstream parties 
and the appeal of Ataka's nationalist rhetoric, there is 
still room in the political spectrum for a nationalist 
anti-establishment party. END SUMMARY 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
TRAKIYA INCIDENT REVEALS THE TRUE FACE OF ATAKA 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Ataka's latest troubles began with the events 
surrounding a car accident on the Trakiya highway on April 
7th. Initial media reports stated that Ataka deputy Pavel 
Chernev had physically assaulted the driver of another 
vehicle following a collision with the car carrying Chernev 
and Ataka leader Volen Siderov.  Chernev and Siderov 
characterized the incident as an attempt on the Ataka 
leader's life.  Chernev first told authorities that the 
would-be "assassin" had bumped his car and tried to force him 
off the road.  Chernev, however, later changed his account of 
the story claiming that he was never driving the car but was 
in the back seat, feeling unwell and could not recall what 
had occurred.  The "would-be assassin," meanwhile, turned out 
to be a 22-year old student driving his sick grandfather to 
the hospital.  He told police that the driver of Siderov's 
car smashed his windshield, slashed his tires and began 
beating him on the head, screaming "you will die here." 
 
¶3. (SBU) Following a public uproar over the assault and faced 
with criminal charges, Chernev eventually confessed that 
Siderov had in fact forced him to lie in order to protect his 
real driver Lyubomir Bakurdzhiev, who has a criminal record. 
Chernev acknowledged he was never in Siderov's car, but had 
traveled separately with a friend, which was later 
substantiated by a gas station video camera showing Chernev 
in a separate vehicle.  Bakardzhiev, on probation for 
stealing chewing gum and razors from a store, later admitted 
his responsibility for the attack. Bakardzhiev, after his 
confession, hinted that he knew many details about Siderov's 
private life, which he would disclose to whomever offered him 
the most money. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Trakiya incident has sparked strong criticism 
from the press and political elite.  Shortly after the 
assault, the Bulgarian parliament passed by a two-thirds 
majority a declaration condemning the behavior of the Ataka 
politicians as "a brutal act of hooliganism," which showed 
"complete disregard for other people's dignity, public order 
and state institutions." The strongly-worded declaration 
highlighted the "arrogance" of Siderov and Chernev (who then 
was presumed responsible) in portraying themselves as 
victims, and called on the prosecutor's office and Interior 
Ministry to take swift criminal action in the case.  After 
further investigation, Prosecutor General Boris Velchev on 
April 28 made a formal request to parliament to strip Siderov 
of his immunity to face charges of perjury, inducement of 
perjury and obstruction of justice. 
 
---------------- 
ATAKA ON DEFENSE 
---------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Many commentators have noted that the highway 
incident has exposed the true face of Ataka as a party of 
hooligans, two-bit criminals and opportunists.  Ataka is now 
paying a heavy price for this unmasking with sharply 
declining rates of popularity.  According to some recent 
polls, Ataka's has lost as much as 40 percent of its support 
as a result of the scandal--shrinking from 11.1 percent 
support to 6.5 percent. Depending on the poll, Ataka has 
fallen to the third or fourth position in the polls after the 
Sofia Mayor Boiko Borisov's prospective party (GERB), the 
Socialists, and the mainly ethnic-Turkish MRF. This setback 
reversed an upward trend since February in which Ataka was 
gaining 2-3 percent support a month. 
 
 
SOFIA 00000661  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) The controversy over the Trakiya incident has also 
caused further fragmentation within the party. Ataka's 
coordinator for Sofia, Khristo Krayselski, announced that the 
party would propose expelling Chernev and four other party 
members deemed "not worthy of confidence." Krayselski said 
the party "will be strict with everyone who is disloyal and 
harms the good image (sic!) of the party, and misrepresents 
and ridicules the leader."  Among the other Ataka deputies 
targeted for explusion is Pelo Stoev, the first person to 
announce to the press that he and Chernev were traveling in a 
separate vehicle the night of the assault.  At the same time, 
the more moderate Ataka coalition member and apparent rival 
to Siderov's leadership, Petar Beron, told the press that he 
will soon establish a new parliamentary group called "Ataka 
Coalition" that would exclude Siderov and his cronies. 
Siderov's recent actions, according to Beron, prove that he 
is unworthy of the honor of leading a nationalist movement. 
Any further division within Ataka, whose parliamentary group 
already has shrunk from 21 to 14 members, could bring the 
party's divisive existence to an end. 
 
---------------------- 
BASING PROTEST FIZZLES 
---------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The lukewarm turnout for Ataka's long-planned rally 
during the NATO ministerial was a further blow to the party's 
standing.  Rather than the "tens of thousands" of Ataka 
supporters that Siderov promised would take to the streets to 
protest Bulgaria's Defense Cooperation Agreement with the 
U.S., the police estimated that approximately 1000 protestors 
attended the demonstration. The numbers decreased even 
further (to roughly 300 by our estimates) when the group 
attempted to deliver their anti-basing petition to the U.S. 
Embassy.  The party had planned to hold a second day of 
protests, but eventually cancelled the rally--possibly due to 
lack of interest--stating there was no point since Secretary 
Rice had already departed Bulgaria.  One newspaper's 
summarized the party's efforts with the headline, "Feeble 
Attack Against NATO." 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶8. (SBU) Despite the justifiable outpouring of Schadenfreude 
from the majority of Bulgarians who have always regarded 
Ataka with contempt or shame, it is too soon to predict the 
party's demise.  The current, cozy three-party coalition has 
left many supporters of the mainstream parties disillusioned 
and dissatisfied.  With the traditional opposition still weak 
and divided, populist and nationalist groups like Ataka have 
ample opportunity to attract public support.  Ataka, however, 
now faces a serious challenge from Sofia Mayor Boiko 
Borisov's new political formation, GERB,(reftel) which offers 
many of the same simple and clear solutions but may represent 
a more acceptable, and therefore promising alternative for 
dissatisfied voters. 
Beyrle