VZCZCXYZ0003
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHDG #1709/01 1442316
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 242316Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4840
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHWN/AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PRIORITY 1921
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RUCOWCV/CUSTOMS CARIBBEAN ATTACHE MIAMI FL PRIORITY
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UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 001709 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/EPSC, INR/IAA; NSC FOR FISK AND 
FEARS; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; USDOC FOR 
4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION; USDOC FOR 
3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: DR PGOV
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #13: A REALIGNMENT IN CONGRESS 
AND THE MUNICIPALITIES 
 
 
¶1.  (U) This is the 13th cable in a series reporting on the 
Dominican Republic's May 16 congressional and municipal 
elections: 
 
2006 Elections - A Realignment in Congress and the 
Municipalities 
 
The ruling PLD of President Leonel Fernandez won the May 16 
congressional and municipal elections by a wider margin than 
expected -- so much so that the margin of victory suggests a 
realignment of political forces in the Dominican Republic. 
 
Nearly complete returns were published by the Central 
Elections Board (JCE) in its bulletin #17 of May 23.  Turnout 
may have been higher than expected, and the few deaths blamed 
on election-related incidents did not substantially exceed 
the record in previous mid-term elections. 
 
Although not final, the congressional vote totals so far show 
the PLD far ahead of either of the main opposition parties: 
about 52% of the electorate voted for the PLD and allies, 22% 
for the PRD and allies, and 23% for the PRSC and allies, with 
independent minor parties picking up the residual.  According 
to local commentators, with its 2004 and 2006 electoral gains 
the PLD has displaced the PRD as the party with the largest 
voter base. 
 
This will support President Fernandez's chances of winning a 
third term in 2008, if he decides to run.  Both he and his 
chief of staff Danilo Medina get credit within the party for 
a successful campaign strategy, prominently featuring weeks 
of street campaigning by the head of state.  One PRSC leader 
in Congress told political officer May 22 that, as of now, 
"There is no one in the opposition who could successfully 
challenge Fernandez in 2008.  Those who aspire will look to 
2012." 
 
The PLD appears to have won absolute control of Congress, 
giving Fernandez leverage to get approval for his proposals 
-- suggesting that legislation on good governance will move 
ahead.  According to the preliminary returns, the PLD has won 
20 of the 32 Senate seats and is ahead for two others; the 
PRD has won 6 and the PRSC 4.  If this result is confirmed, 
the Fernandez administration will have the 2/3 majority 
needed to pass constitutional amendments in the Senate.  His 
PLD may also achieve a simple majority in the House of 
Representatives, enough to pass ordinary legislation.  An 
unpublished JCE projection obtained by the Embassy shows 92 
seats for the PLD (of 178), 42 for the PRSC, and 40 for the 
PRD.  The PLD will chair both houses as of the opening 
session of the new Congress on August 16. 
 
The ruling party also did very well in the municipal 
elections.  As of May 23, the PLD has won or is ahead in 67 
of the 151 municipalities, the PRD in 52, the PRSC in 28, and 
minor parties in the remainder.  Each mayor comes with a 
party list of city council candidates; council members are 
chosen in proportion to each party's vote total.  As in the 
Congress, the municipal election outcome will radically 
change the balance of party control:  the PLD, now in control 
of only 7 towns, may soon have like-minded leaders in nearly 
half, facilitating cooperation between central and local 
governments on public works and delivery of benefits to the 
inhabitants. 
 
 
Election Count Continues 
 
As in previous elections, the Dominican Republic experienced 
significant problems in counting the votes according to a 
 
legally mandated system that is complicated, laden with 
time-consuming security procedures, and reliant on 
error-prone human beings to prepare hand-written and 
calculated tallies subsequently entered into computers.  The 
losers, inevitably suspicious because of a history of 
election frauds into the 1990s, have already submitted the 
first of what are likely to be many challenges to results in 
specific localities. 
 
Prominent USAID-supported civic organizaation Participacion 
Ciudadana, which fielded national observers of the election, 
reminded the public on May 24 that the parties have a right 
to challenge results believed to be inaccurate and asked that 
the challenges be well documented.  The group also urged the 
parties not to engage in protests or other disruptive tactics 
that could raise tension, and to prepare to accept the final 
results as determined by the JCE. 
 
JCE administrative chamber president Nelson Gomez announced 
that, beginning May 25, the municipal boards would begin 
hearing challenges and requests for correction of widespread 
adding errors and other mistakes on the tally sheets prepared 
by poll workers on election night.  The boards would have up 
to five days to resolve the challenges; the JCE would serve 
as a court of appeal if necessary.  Political officer has 
seen egregious examples of bad math and a few of what might 
have been intentional changes to alter results. 
 
As of May 23, the vote count was still incomplete, with 
municipal election boards in two provinces working to correct 
the tallies.  The JCE plenary May 22 strongly invited the 
remaining boards to submit their results within 24 hours; the 
JCE subsequently anticipated releasing complete provisional 
returns on May 24.  Opposition leaders and candidates 
asserted to political officer that the errors consistently 
favored the ruling party, and threatened a trench-to-trench 
battle to push things their way in provinces and 
municipalities where the PLD edge is relatively thin.  This 
strategy, while understandable, will nonetheless drag out the 
final determination of the winners while the election boards 
adjudicate challenges -- particularly in the numerous races 
for representative and mayor. 
 
 
What Path for the Opposition? 
 
The opposition parties are talking about internal reforms to 
revitalize the parties that dominated Dominican politics for 
more than 40 years.  This election was primarily a defeat for 
the PRD.  The party that won three straight elections -- in 
1998, 2000, and 2002 -- lost the presidency in 2004 and now 
in 2006 its legislative and municipal dominance.  The 
anti-PRD vote is attributed by many to the continuing 
widespread voter disapproval of ex-president Meja, who left 
office in 2004 amid financial crisis, corruption scandals, 
and a failed effort at re-election.  Some Embassy contacts 
believe Mejia's influence will wane after the electoral 
defeat, and some hope the current PRD and PRSC party officers 
will resign or be forced to do so. 
 
The PRSC of deceased president Balaguer had already hit a low 
point in 2004, when its presidential candidate Eduardo 
Estrella got less than 9 percent of the vote.  This time, the 
PRSC elected additional senators, representatives, and 
mayors, and Reformista leader Amable Aristy Castro handily 
won the senate seat from La Altagracia and aspires to run for 
president.  However, the PRSC's gains are in large part 
attributable to its alliance with the PRD.  Not counting 
allies, the PRSC received only 11% of the vote -- barely more 
than the 9% PRSC vote in the 2004 presential election.  An 
 
unknown but considerable number of Reformista voters, unhappy 
over the alliance, abstained or absconded, and their future 
party affiliation is in doubt. 
 
 
Both opposition parties are in a shambles; their "Grand 
National Alliance" failed to reverse their decline.  PRD 
secretary general Orlando Jorge Mera told political officer 
 
SIPDIS 
May 17 that the elections "damaged the system of political 
parties.  We need to pass a good political party law, 
requiring greater transparency and discouraging candidates 
from switching parties opportunistically."  Renegade Senator 
"Tonty" Rutinel, who renounced his PRD membership before the 
elections, predicted profound changes and "a total 
recomposition" in the parties. 
 
As if to underscore that need, local daily Diario Libre on 
May 24 ran a front-page photo of two re-elected congressmen, 
all smiles, congratulating each other.  One was Radhames 
Ramos Garcia (PRD) of La Vega, re-elected despite the fact 
that last year the Supreme Court convicted him of alien 
smuggling and he served 9 months of an 18-month prison 
sentence. 
 
¶2.   (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. 
 
¶3.  (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted 
at our SIPRNET web site 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo)  along with 
extensive other material. 
KUBISKE