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DE RUEHDG #1598/01 1360043
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O 160043Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4738
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHWN/AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PRIORITY 1916
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RUEHGE/AMEMBASSY GEORGETOWN PRIORITY 0861
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UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 001598 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/EPSC; INR/IAA; NSC FOR FISK AND 
FEARS; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; USDOC FOR 
4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION; USDOC FOR 
3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: DR PGOV
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #11: MAY 16 ELECTIONS OUTLOOK 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) This is the 11th cable in a series reporting on the 
Dominican Republic's May 16 congressional and municipal 
elections: 
 
May 16 Elections Outlook 
 
On the eve of the May 16 congressional and municipal 
elections, Central Elections Board (JCE) president Luis Arias 
has credibly assured the Dominican public and international 
community that administrative preparations are complete and 
that the voting process "will proceed normally." 
International observers, led by an OAS election observer 
mission, and domestic observers will be deployed throughout 
the country, with special focus on big cities with close 
races or places with possible irregularities in voter lists 
(see our daily for May 15).  Voters at 12,371 polling 
stations will elect 32 senators,  178 representatives, 151 
mayors, 151 vice mayors, 963 city council members and their 
substitutes. 
 
Outlook in a Nutshell 
 
Nationwide, the ruling PLD will almost certainly increase its 
currently weak representation in Congress, but may fall short 
of majorities in either house.   It may also win control of 
some of the municipal governments now controlled 
overwhelmingly by the opposition, perhaps lessening partisan 
frictions between the central government and local 
authorities.  An unprecedented alliance between the two major 
opposition parties will function in about 26 of the 32 
provinces, but its ability to turn out PRD and PRSC voters 
will be tested on election day.  The highest-profile contests 
for senator and mayor in the capital are too close to call; 
in the northern regional capital, Santiago, the two key races 
are virtually decided. 
 
 
What the Results Might Mean 
 
In the most likely scenario, the Fernandez administration 
will strengthen its forces in both houses of Congress, but 
not dominate them.  If so, he will gain needed leverage to 
pass legislation, such as laws relating to DR-CAFTA 
implementation, but will still have to negotiate with the 
main opposition parties.  This added leverage will be even 
more useful if the PRD-PRSC opposition alliance survives the 
election and becomes a legislative coalition.  In any case, a 
Congress that is more balanced between ruling party and 
opposition may facilitate reaching consensus on major issues. 
 In the event the PLD wins a majority in either house, 
Fernandez could approach the legislative control that 
ex-president Mejia enjoyed during his term. 
 
The ruling party's performance will also be read as a litmus 
test of its ability to back President Fernandez for a third 
term in 2008.  The PLD chose not to ally itself with another 
major party, even though it had the opportunity to do so. 
The conventional wisdom holds that the PLD is weaker in the 
base - at local levels - than at the top.  That could be 
changing after Fernandez's convincing victory in the 2004 
election (57% to 34% PRD and 9% PRSC).  The opposition 
alliance's performance in the 2006 election will be an 
indicator of how much the PRD's grass roots have eroded or 
whether the party has ceded first place to the PLD.  From 
today's perspective, Fernandez will be hard to beat in 2008. 
Only the PRD, if it retains most of its traditional support, 
could credibly challenge him. 
 
 
Races to Watch 
The most highly prized trophies, the mayoralty and Senate 
seat of Santo Domingo (National District), are up for grabs. 
The PLD's strength in the city - about half the voters - 
gives its candidates a natural edge.  Mayor Roberto Salcedo 
(PLD) also has the power of a successful incumbency -- "He 
picks up the trash in my barrio, where the streets are 
narrow," quipped political officer's domestic employee, to 
explain why she will vote for Salcedo.  A poll in early April 
by U.S. firm Penn, Schoen & Berland showed him to lead 
challenger Alfredo Pacheco by 58% to 41%.  But Pacheco (PRD)) 
has gained respect in three terms as speaker of the House of 
Representatives and has spent heavily on his campaign -- his 
glossy brochures come with daily newspapers, detailing a 
14-point action plan.  Outcome is too close to call. 
 
Even closer is the Senate race:  PLD secretary general 
Reinaldo Pared Perez has the backing of President Fernandez 
and his chief of staff, party boss Danilo Medina.  But some 
voters regard Pared as "prepotente" - too aggressive in his 
manner.  Opposition candidate Johnny Jones offers a more 
relaxed demeanor on camera, equally articulate but more 
"simpatico."  Jones's weakness is that of his PRSC, which has 
a low percentage of voters in the capital; he will rely 
heavily on PRD votes in the opposition alliance.  The Penn, 
Schoen poll put these candidates in a technical tie, 49% for 
Salcedo to 45% for Jones. 
 
In the northern regional capital, Santiago, Attorney General 
Francisco Dominguez Brito (PLD) is very likely to win a 
Senate seat.  He led PRD candidate Hector "Papin" Dominguez 
by 58%-31% in the Penn, Schoen poll and continues as the 
front runner.  He stands for rule of law, judicial and 
prosecutorial reform, and transparency, and is likely to 
pursue such a legislative agenda if elected.  Incumbent mayor 
Jose Enrique Sued (PRSC) has an even wider margin, 65%-29%, 
over PLD provincial governor Jose Izquierdo.  The mayor has 
attracted international loans to address the city's problems 
and takes credit for substantial investment in public works 
as well as social programs.  He benefits from local 
Reformista Party strength, roughly equivalent to that of the 
ruling PLD and opposition PRD. 
 
 
Issues for Voters 
 
Although many candidates have skimped on campaign proposals, 
the voters have concerns that they hope will be addressed. 
Topping the list of most important problems confronting the 
county, in the Penn, Schoen poll, were corruption (21% of 
respondents) and unemployment (21%).  Next were illegal drugs 
(19%) and violence and crime (13%).  Crime has focused the 
attention of candidates in the biggest cities, such as 
Pacheco in Santo Domingo, who have proposed remedies within 
the limited resources of local governments.  An impressive 
82% of citizens nationally agreed that the Dominican Republic 
"needs a hard-line government" to reduce crime; only 17% 
disagreed.  This is noteworthy in a country where, according 
to other surveys, most citizens still express faith in 
democracy under any circumstances. 
 
Criticisms by Civil Society 
 
Prominent civil society organizations predict a generally 
"normal, orderly" voting process May 16.  But they are not so 
sanguine about some of the JCE's actions or the campaign just 
completed.  The complaints strike familiar chords from 
previous elections.  The digital photographic list of some 
5.6 million voters includes many persons who have been 
transferred from one polling place (colegio electoral) to 
another, generally for valid reasons including migration of 
voters or creation of new polling tables.  Such transfers 
often provoke suspicions of malicious intent.  This year, 
more than 10,000 persons were shifted from colegios in and 
around the capital to some of the least populated and most 
distant provinces.  Civil society and political leaders have 
alleged that the transfers, which in two towns increased the 
total number of voters by more than 20 percent, may have 
resulted from improper action by an unnamed JCE employee, to 
boost particular candidates' chances.  But there is no 
evidence that the transfers were not voluntary. 
 
"The election campaign was no model," clucked top political 
commentator Juan Bolivar Diaz at an event honoring the 
election observers.  The Fernandez  administration "abused 
state resources" in a flurry of inaugurations of public works 
by the president, who turned them into campaign events. 
Government employees and vehicles were dragooned into service 
to support ruling-party candidates; ads run in the media by 
government agencies had a similar effect.  Also, the parties 
failed to comply with a legal requirement that 33% of the 
candidates be women. 
 
On the positive side, there was less violence than in 
previous campaigns -- only 1 dead and 8 injured, by Diaz,s 
count.  While many candidates emphasized style over 
substance, some 30-40 -- according to Diaz -- did present 
serious proposals.  (Out of more than 14,000 candidates, we 
would add.  Many local candidates addressed local issues from 
street paving to garbage collection.)  As usual, noted 
Participacion Ciudadana executive director Javier Cabreja, 
patronage has primed the pump:  many voters gauge the 
candidates, especially for mayor, on their promises to 
provide public jobs to supporters. 
 
 
Apathy or Disenchantment? 
 
Voting is legally obligatory in the Dominican Republic, but 
is not enforced.  Abstention in previous mid-term elections 
was on the order of 49%, more than the 27% in the 2004 
presidential voting.  Increased voter apathy in legislative 
and local elections characterizes many democracies, some 
commentators have noted.  But for others, like Diaz, it is 
symptomatic of "politicians' growing lack of credibility and 
voter disgust" at what is perceived as their lack of 
proposals, corruption, and patronage-oriented behavior. 
Several candidates have criminal charges pending or 
have been allowed to run despite convictions for corrupt 
activities. 
 
 
¶2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. 
 
¶3. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted 
at our SIPRNET web site 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo)  along with 
extensive other material. 
HERTELL