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P 082031Z MAY 06
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UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 001515 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/EPSC, INR/IAA, EB, EB/IFD/OMA, 
; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; TREASURY FOR OASIA-J LEVINE; 
DEPT PASS USTR; USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN 
DIVISION; 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: DR PGOV
SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY -- DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #8:ELECTION 
OUTLOOK - BALANCED, MILDLY OPTIMISTIC 
 
¶1.  (U) This is the 8th cable in a series reporting on the 
Dominican Rrepublic's May 16 congressional and municipal 
elections: 
 
Election Outlook - Balanced, Mildly Optimistic 
 
As Dominicans approach the May 16 congressional and municipal 
elections, the latest poll shows their voting intentions to 
be evenly divided between the government party and the 
opposition alliance.  Remarkably, after years of reduced 
purchasing power for most Dominicans, they remain about as 
supportive of President Fernandez as when they elected him in 
¶2004.  Most also have confidence in the electoral 
authorities, despite accusations of political bias among the 
judges. 
 
A Dead Heat Overall 
 
A Gallup poll, conducted April 7-11 and published in 
reputable center-left daily "Hoy" in late April, shows 
Dominican adults' voting intentions to be statistically tied 
between the ruling PLD and its allies (41.7%) and the 
PRD-PRSC opposition alliance (41.4%), with an error margin of 
2.8%.  Although opposition leaders questioned the poll's 
accuracy, their unprecedented coalition of two historic 
adversaries -- both parties weakened by their 2004 election 
defeat -- may be working. 
 
Other results suggest that the main opposition parties 
overall will not suffer heavy defections by members who 
disagree with the alliance their 
leaders have engineered.  As of the polling dates, the small 
percentage of defectors from the government's Bloque 
Progresista would have been about the same as from the 
opposition's Gran Alianza Nacional. 
 
The poll also suggests the parties might get different 
results in Congress and the municipalities.  More respondents 
believed that elected opposition mayors and city council 
members will outnumber those from the ruling coalition -- a 
finding corroborated by another survey measuring the 
popularity of mayoral candidates.  The opposition currently 
controls most city halls; conventional wisdom holds that the 
opposition has stronger local leadership outside the big 
cities. 
 
Opinion was evenly divided on which side would gain more 
seats in each house of Congress, but slightly more 
respondents believed the government would gain strength in 
the Senate (where the PLD presently holds only 1 of 32 
seats).  Again, this is consistent with other poll results. 
Congressional elections depend heavily on provincial and 
local leadership, but the ruling party has some attractive 
senatorial candidates - - such as Attorney General Francisco 
Dominguez Brito in Santiago, the second city - - and seems 
likely to bolster its senatorial bloc. 
 
Whatever the election's outcome, it is unlikely to cause any 
significant shift in the Dominican Government's policies or 
orientation.  Another poll, conducted in December by a 
university think tank, attempted to measure the general 
public's ideological preferences on the eve of the campaign. 
Among the respondents, age 15 and up, 41% overall picked "on 
the right" as best describing their politics; only 7 percent 
chose "on the left"; 18% were "in the center"; and 34% did 
not know or respond.  The think tank's director commented 
that the major parties, regardless of their history or 
rhetoric, in practice represent gradations from moderate to 
conservative, without dramatic differences.  Pragmatically, 
 
their words and deeds are calculated to attract voters. 
 
Mood Swings 
 
The voting public also appears somewhat more optimistic in 
general than two years ago, when they voted overwhelmingly to 
oust incumbent President Mejia. 
The country is headed in the right direction, according to 
52% of respondents, and 51% said the economy would improve 
within two years.  But 45% saw their personal economic 
situation as bad or very bad; only 16% considered their 
circumstances to be good or very good.  Excellent overall 
economic growth since 2005 has had minimal resonance in 
public opinion, except a recognition that the economy has 
stabilized under Fernndez. 
 
Mid-term election results to some extent are viewed as a 
referendum on the incumbent president.  In that regard, 
Leonel Fernandez is sitting pretty.  To a question whether he 
should run for reelection in 2008, 55% responded yes.  This 
approval was even higher in the big cities, 63%. Some 49% 
viewed Fernandez's performance in office as good or very 
good, and 54% were satisfied with his administration.  In 
stark contrast, 80% disagreed with the 
idea that the country should amend its constitution to allow 
former president Mejia to seek another term in 2008.  Even 
65% of Mejia's own party, the PRD, opposed his running again. 
 
Mid-term public opinion can change, however.  In the last 
congressional and municipal elections, in 2002, President 
Mejia's popularity during his first two years in office 
helped elect an overwhelming majority of PRD senators and 
mayors and a large plurality of PRD representatives.  But 
Mejia's popularity collapsed in the ensuing two years, amid a 
national financial crisis and revelations of corruption; his 
no-holds-barred reelection campaign did not avert defeat. 
 
The Central Electoral Board 
 
PLD leaders, especially presidential chief of staff Danilo 
Medina, have repeatedly expressed distrust of the Central 
Election Board (JCE), which will conduct the elections and 
adjudicate any disputes over the results, on grounds that 
most of the JCE judges are affiliated with the opposition. 
As a check on the JCE, Medina has called for reactivation of 
a civil society monitoring committee led by veteran political 
mediator Msgr. Agripino Nez.  Predictably, the opposition 
argues there is no need.  Most voters apparently do not share 
the PLD concern:  71% responded that the JCE is doing a good 
or very good job of organizing the elections; only 12% said 
they were dissatisfied. 
 
Issues of Concern 
 
Which is not to say that the voters have no concerns. 
Respondents picked as the country's main problem, in 
descending order of percentages:  electric power blackouts, 
the crime wave and gang activities, unemployment, potable 
water shortages, illegal drug trafficking and consumption, 
and deficiencies of the educational system.  On a related 
question, the greatest number of respondents singled out the 
health sector as most in need of public investment. 
 
More than half of respondents believed the government was 
using public resources to support its parties' candidates in 
the election.  Half said that in the Fernandez administration 
there has been just as much corruption as under Mejia, or 
even more. 
 
¶2.   (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. 
 
¶3.  (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted 
at our SIPRNET web site 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo)  along with 
extensive other material. 
HERTELL