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P 032023Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO
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UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 001464 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, INR/IAA; NSC FOR FISK AND FEARS; 
USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; USDOC FOR 
4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION; USDOC FOR 
3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; 
DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: DR PGOV
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #8: ELECTION OUTLOOK - 
BALANCED, MILDLY OPTIMISTIC 
 
¶1.  (U) This is the 8th cable in a series reporting on the 
Dominican Rrepublic's May 16 congressional and municipal 
elections: 
 
 
Election Outlook - Balanced, Mildly Optimistic 
 
As Dominicans approach the May 16 congressional and municipal 
elections, the latest poll 
shows their voting intentions to be evenly divided between 
the government party and the 
opposition alliance.  Remarkably, after years of reduced 
purchasing power for most 
Dominicans, they remain about as supportive of President 
Fernandez as when they elected 
him in 2004.  Most also have confidence in the electoral 
authorities, despite accusations 
of political bias among the judges. 
 
 
A Dead Heat Overall 
 
A Gallup poll, conducted April 7-11 and published in 
reputable center-left daily "Hoy" 
in late April, shows Dominican adults' voting intentions to 
be statistically tied between 
the ruling PLD and its allies (41.7%) and the PRD-PRSC 
opposition alliance (41.4%), with 
an error margin of 2.8%.  Although opposition leaders 
questioned the poll?s accuracy, 
their unprecedented coalition of two historic adversaries -- 
both parties weakened by 
their 2004 election defeat -- may be working. 
 
Other results suggest that the main opposition parties 
overall will not suffer heavy 
defections by members who disagree with the alliance their 
leaders have engineered.  As 
of the polling dates, the small percentage of defectors from 
the government's Bloque 
Progresista would have been about the same as from the 
opposition's Gran Alianza Nacional. 
 
The poll also suggests the parties might get different 
results in Congress and the 
municipalities.  More respondents believed that elected 
opposition mayors and city council 
members will outnumber those from the ruling coalition - - a 
finding corroborated by 
another survey measuring the popularity of mayoral 
candidates.  The opposition currently 
controls most city halls; conventional wisdom holds that the 
opposition has stronger local 
leadership outside the big cities. 
 
Opinion was evenly divided on which side would gain more 
seats in each house of Congress, 
but slightly more respondents believed the government would 
gain strength in the Senate 
(where the PLD presently holds only 1 of 32 seats).  Again, 
this is consistent with other 
poll results.  Congressional elections depend heavily on 
provincial and local leadership, 
but the ruling party has some attractive senatorial 
candidates - - such as Attorney General 
Francisco DomInguez Brito in Santiago, the second city - - 
and seems likely to bolster its 
senatorial bloc. 
 
Whatever the election's oucome, it is unlikely to cause any 
significant shift in the 
Dominican Government's policies or orientation.  Another 
poll, conducted in December by a 
university think tank, attempted to measure the general 
public's ideological preferences on 
the eve of the campaign.  Among the respondents, age 15 and 
up, 41% overall picked "on the 
right" as best describing their politics; only 7 percent 
chose "on the left"; 18% were "in 
the center"; and 34% did not know or respond.  The think 
tank's director commented that the 
major parties, regardless of their history or rhetoric, in 
practice represent gradations 
from moderate to conservative, without dramatic differences. 
Pragmatically, their words 
and deeds are calculated to attract voters. 
 
 
Mood Swings 
 
The voting public also appears somewhat more optimistic in 
general than two years ago, when 
they voted overwhelmingly to oust incumbent President Mejia. 
The country is headed in the 
right direction, according to 52% of respondents, and 51% 
said the economy would improve 
within two years.  But 45% saw their personal economic 
situation as bad or very bad; only 
16% considered their circumstances to be good or very good. 
Excellent overall economic 
growth since 2005 has had minimal resonance in public 
opinion, except a recognition that 
the economy has stabilized under Fernndez. 
 
Mid-term election results to some extent are viewed as a 
referendum on the incumbent 
president.  In that regard, Leonel Fernandez is sitting 
pretty.  To a question whether he 
should run for reelection in 2008, 55% responded yes.  This 
approval was even higher in the 
big cities, 63%. Some 49% viewed Fernandez's performance in 
office as good or very good, 
and 54% were satisfied with his administration.  In stark 
contrast, 80% disagreed with the 
idea that the country should amend its constitution to allow 
former president Meja to seek 
another term in 2008.  Even 65% of Meja's own party, the 
PRD, opposed his running again. 
 
Mid-term public opinion can change, however.  In the last 
congressional and municipal 
elections, in 2002, President Meja's popularity during his 
first two years in office 
helped elect an overwhelming majority of PRD senators and 
mayors and a large plurality of 
PRD representatives.  But Meja's popularity collapsed in the 
ensuing two years, amid a 
national financial crisis and revelations of corruption; his 
no-holds-barred reelection 
campaign did not avert defeat. 
 
 
The Central Electoral Board 
 
PLD leaders, especially presidential chief of staff Danilo 
Medina, have repeatedly 
expressed distrust of the Central Election Board (JCE), which 
will conduct the elections 
 
and adjudicate any disputes over the results, on grounds that 
most of the JCE judges are 
affiliated with the opposition.  As a check on the JCE, 
Medina has called for reactivation 
of a civil society monitoring committee led by veteran 
political mediator Msgr. Agripino 
Nez.  Predictably, the opposition argues there is no need. 
Most voters apparently do not 
share the PLD concern:  71% responded that the JCE is doing a 
good or very good job of 
organizing the elections; only 12% said they were 
dissatisfied. 
 
 
Issues of Concern 
 
Which is not to say that the voters have no concerns. 
Respondents picked as the country's 
main problem, in descending order of percentages:  electric 
power blackouts, the crime wave 
and gang activities, unemployment, potable water shortages, 
illegal drug trafficking and 
consumption, and deficiencies of the educational system.  On 
a related question, the 
greatest number of respondents singled out the health sector 
as most in need of public 
investment. 
 
More than half of respondents believed the government was 
using public resources to support 
its parties' candidates in the election.  Half said that in 
the Fernndez administration 
there has been just as much corruption as under Meja, or 
even more. 
 
 ¶2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. 
 
 ¶3. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted 
at our SIPRNET web site 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo)  along with 
extensive other material. 
KUBISKE