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DE RUEHRO #1317/01 1231548
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 031548Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4632
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHFL/AMCONSUL FLORENCE 1356
RUEHMIL/AMCONSUL MILAN 7022
RUEHNP/AMCONSUL NAPLES 1428

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001317 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV IT
SUBJECT: ITALY: CHAMBER PRESIDENTS ELECTED, PRESIDENCY OF 
THE REPUBLIC NEXT 
 
 
ROME 00001317  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Italy's new parliament formally sat April 28 and 
subsequently voted Communist Renewal (RC) National Secretary 
Fausto Bertinotti President of the Chamber of Deputies and 
Daisy party leader Franco Marini President of the Senate. 
Both were contentious votes.  As one of his first acts as 
Chamber President, Bertinotti set the date for election of 
the next President of the Republic on May 8, making it 
unlikely that Romano Prodi will receive a mandate to form a 
government this week or next.  PM Berlusconi, who resigned 
May 2 but stays on as caretaker PM, formally endorsed a 
"Ciampi-bis" -- that is, that current President of the 
Republic Ciampi be re-elected for another term.  Prodi, by 
contrast, appears to prefer elevating Democrats of the Left 
(DS) leader Massimo D'Alema, or another senior DS-affiliated 
official, to the Presidency.  END SUMMARY. 
 
NEW PARLIAMENT ELECTS LEADERS 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Italy's new parliament formally sat April 28.  The 
Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, meeting separately, 
immediately began deliberations and voting for Presidents of 
the two houses. 
 
BERTINOTTI IN THE CHAMBER 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Communist Renewal (RC) National Secretary Fausto 
Bertinotti was elected April 29 as President of the Chamber 
of Deputies.  His election was all but secured the previous 
week when the only other viable candidate from the 
center-left "Union" coalition, Democrats of the Left (DS) 
President Massimo D'Alema, bowed out of the race.  Prodi's 
majority in the Chamber is a secure 340 to 277. 
Nevertheless, some DS members showed their discontent with 
the selection of Bertinotti, casting 51 votes for D'Alema in 
the second vote April 28, which forced voting to continue 
until April 29. 
 
MARINI IN THE SENATE 
-------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) In an even more contentious vote, the Senate elected 
Daisy party leader Franco Marini President in the fourth 
round of voting April 29.  Marini defeated Senator for Life 
Giulio Andreotti by a vote of 165 to 156.  Prodi's regular 
senate majority of 158-156 is tenuous and will often require 
support from Italy's seven Senators for Life, five of whom 
generally lean toward the center-left. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Senator for Life Luigi Scalfaro presided as 
temporary President over the senate proceedings.  The second 
vote on April 28 was thrown into controversy when three 
senators wrote "Francesco" Marini on their ballots, and the 
center-right refused to accept that the senators had intended 
to vote for Franco Marini.  In the third round of voting, the 
left-leaning Scalfaro announced "Franco," on a ballot that 
read "Francesco," counting it as a valid vote for Marini. 
Senate secretaries subsequently discovered the "error," and 
the center-right publicly accused Scalfaro of making a 
convenient mistake.  The acrimonious show apart, many 
observers believe it no accident that three senators (plus 
another who submitted a blank ballot) cast dubious votes for 
Marini.  They assert this was a clear message to Prodi by 
some of his erstwhile allies that he must be careful not to 
take their support for granted. 
 
TOWARD A CIAMPI REPLACEMENT AND A NEW GOVERNMENT 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Election of chamber Presidents was the first step 
toward government formation.  This week, parties are 
selecting their group leaders.  As one of his first acts as 
President of the Chamber of Deputies, Bertinotti set the date 
for election of the next President of the Republic as May 8. 
Expectations had been that the vote to replace Ciampi, whose 
mandate expires May 18, would take place on May 13.  Most 
observers believe that the accelerated election schedule 
reduces the odds that Prodi will get a mandate to form a 
government before the new President is elected.  The new 
president would be sworn in a few days after his election. 
He would then normally conduct about two days of formal 
consultations before giving the new PM-designate the nod. 
 
BERLUSCONI CALLS FOR A CIAMPI-BIS 
 
ROME 00001317  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) PM Berlusconi, who formally resigned May 2, and his 
allies in the center-right officially endorsed a 
"Ciampi-bis," that is that current President of the Republic 
Ciampi be re-elected for another term.  Prodi said that would 
be fine, but it was up to Ciampi to decide if he would like 
to continue as President. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The government formation process remains fluid, and 
public speculation regarding the next President of the 
Republic and the various ministers varies wildly.  It appears 
that Ciampi has received general support from business and 
political leaders and would easily win another term if he 
decided to let his hat be thrown into the ring.  But Italian 
analysts say that Ciampi will not agree to a second term 
unless called on to serve, presumably by both coalitions. 
Prodi's comparatively lukewarm welcome falls short of that, 
so the assumption is that Prodi wants a DS-affiliated leader 
in the Presidency.  While the center-left has the votes to do 
this, the question is whether they are willing to abandon the 
concept of a President with a broad consensus.  DS President 
D'Alema, reportedly the lead Prodi candidate, faces 
center-right opposition.  And, in a race where the person in 
the pole position almost always stumbles, DS-affiliated 
politicians Giulio Amato and Giorgio Napolitano also remain 
in contention.   END COMMENT. 
 
¶9. (U) Updated unclassified biographies for Bertinotti and 
Marini can be found on the Embassy's siprent website. 
Unclassified biographies for Prodi and his cabinet, when 
 
SIPDIS 
named, will also be posted. 
SPOGLI