VZCZCXYZ0017
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHQT #1157/01 1301906
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 101906Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4284
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 5596
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1724
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ MAY 9814
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0567
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 0421
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 001157 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA PLEASE PASS TO USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL EC
 
SUBJECT: Ecuador Election Update--Six Months Out 
 
Ref:  Quito 407 
 
Note: This is an action request for WHA and USAID--see last 
para. 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:  Six months away from national elections in 
October, and three months before candidates formally 
register, more than 20 aspirants already crowd the 
presidential field and that number is likely to rise. 
Former VP Leon Roldos holds a consistent lead in early 
polling, but most Ecuadorians are still undecided.  Roldos 
is followed in the polls by banana magnate Alvaro Noboa and 
newly-announced Social Christian candidate Cynthia Viteri. 
Former Finance Minister Rafael Correa is seeking indigenous 
support and is widely perceived as Chavez' candidate. 
 
¶2.  (U) Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez claims to be running 
and retains core support, but may be blocked on 
constitutional grounds.  Congress has moved to increase 
campaign finance limits and select a method for proportional 
representation, both important advances.  It is currently 
debating electoral reforms to block candidates like 
Gutierrez, and promote party discipline.  New election 
authorities have launched a series of initiatives, but need 
additional OAS and USG support for training and observation. 
End Summary. 
 
Pre-candidates multiplying 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Candidates cannot officially register their 
candidacies until July 15, but unofficial candidate lists 
are growing steadily and now number over 20.  Interestingly, 
all the top contenders (with the exception of ex-president 
Gutierrez) hail from the coastal region; none are from the 
highlands.  The top contenders include former VP Leon 
Roldos, a center-left pragmatist who has allied with the 
Democratic Left (ID) party and named a popular and respected 
young ID leader, Pichincha Prefect Ramiro Gonzalez, as his 
running mate.  Thus far, no other candidates have announced 
their running mates.  Cythia Viteri (PSC) was nominated by 
her party in a well-choreographed event in Portoviejo, in 
populos Manabi province, on April 28, with rival PSC leaders 
Leon Febres Cordero and Jaime Nebot both in attendance. 
 
¶4.  (U) Dark horse populist, anti-American candidate Rafael 
Correa is still low in the polls, with less than 10% 
support, but is seeking an electoral alliance with the 
indigenous Pachakutik movement.  The organized indigenous 
are divided over whether to support Rafael Correa or to run 
their own candidate; CONAIE leaders reportedly oppose such 
an alliance, making it less likely to flourish.  Humberto 
Guillem, the former prefect (U.S. governor-equivalent) of 
Manabi province, is trailing far behind as the candidate of 
ex-president Abdala Bucaram's discredited Roldosista Party 
(not linked to Leon Roldos). 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez retains significant 
core support among popular sectors and his home Amazonian 
region in early polls, but could be blocked from running by 
pending legislation in Congress (see below) or by the 
electoral commission (TSE).  Consecutive re-election is 
prohibited by the constitution.  Gutierrez argues that his 
term was interrupted and therefore his bid is not 
consecutive.  Some speculate the PSC, which controls the 
Constitutional Court, might ultimately support a Gutierrez 
candidacy, to undermine the electoral base of Correa. 
 
Polls Show Roldos Maintaining Early Lead 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) A recent poll by "Informe Confidencial" of residents 
of Quito and Guayaquil generally tracks with other early 
poll trends, showing Roldos substantially leading the field 
in Quito, with 29% support, followed by Viteri (10%) and 
Gutierrez (10%), then Noboa (8%) and Correa (8%).  In 
Guayaquil, Alvaro Noboa leads slightly, with 26%, followed 
by Roldos (23%), Viteri (16%), Gutierrez (8%), and Correa 
(4%).  However, a recent national Cedatos poll showed most 
Ecuadorian voters (well over 60%) still undecided on their 
preferences at this stage in the race. 
 
Latest Contender:  Cynthia Viteri 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Viteri told the Ambassador on May 2 that her 
campaign will be grassroots and emphasize national unity, 
appealing to civil society and business groups for support 
but avoiding alliances with other parties.  She would 
emphasize job creation and citizen security over women's 
issues, she said, since it was unclear that a female 
candidacy would appeal to voters.  An appealing and 
charismatic candidate in her own right, Viteri suffers from 
her close association with discredited party boss Febres 
Cordero.  She told the Ambassador she hoped to balance the 
PSC ticket with a youngish male VP candidate from Quito or 
the highlands.  (Note:  PSC sources tell us this decision 
will not be entirely Viteri's, but will be reached with 
senior party leaders.) 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Viteri estimated the PSC electoral base to be 11- 
12%, and seeks to build on that reach the 19 or 20% needed 
to make the second round of voting on November 26, 
preferably against Noboa, (everybody's favorite runoff 
opponent after two consecutive second-place finishes). 
Viteri emphasized to the Ambassador the need for an FTA "on 
equal terms" with the U.S., to generate investment and job 
creation in Ecuador.  She also alleged Correa was receiving 
substantial financial assistance for his campaign from 
Chavez, and she planned to publicly protest against this 
"flagrant interference in Ecuador's internal affairs." 
 
Electoral Proposals Under Debate 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (U) After setting aside an electoral reform package 
proposed by the executive, Congress is debating its own 
proposed electoral reforms including a provision (referred 
to popularly as the "muerte politica" or "political death" 
clause) which would prevent anyone removed from office 
before the end of their term from seeking elected office 
again for a set period (the proposal began as a prohibition 
for life, but is now down to just six years).  If passed, 
this would prohibit ex-president Lucio Gutierrez from 
participating in this election or next.  As currently 
formulated, the proposal would affect former congress 
members expelled from several major parties as well.  Other 
elements of the measure would reserve national elected 
office for registered political parities only, and would 
promote party discipline by stiffening penalties for 
disaffiliation once in office.  Congress is scheduled to 
vote on the bill on May 10, and a modified version of the 
bill is expected to pass. 
 
¶10.  (U) Civil society leader Cesar Montufar, former head of 
the electoral watchdog NGO "Citizen Participation," is 
leading the call for another electoral initiative, referred 
to here as the "sixth ballot."  If accepted by electoral 
authorities, this initiative would place a sixth ballot (in 
addition to those for president/VP; congress; Andean 
parliament; provincial and municipal councils) asking voters 
if they favor one or a series of undefined political 
reforms, in general terms (e.g. "do you support reforms to 
depoliticize the Supreme Electoral Tribunal").  The 
constitution does not provide for this modified referendum, 
which would be non-binding on the next government. 
Organizers are conducting a march from Quito to Guayaquil to 
generate support for the proposal, and to gather citizen 
suggestions for questions to put to the voters. 
 
Electoral Process: Challenges, Old and New 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶11.  (U) Congress finally acted to raise historically low 
campaign spending limits, and recently decided on a 
proportional representation method.  The latter is awaiting 
the signature of President Palacio, who is expected to sign. 
The method chosen is a complex formula, understood by few, 
resulting from the Ecuadorian constitutional guarantee that 
voters may select candidates by party list or individually. 
Proposed by an obscure Ecuadorian mathematician, German 
Rojas, TSE officials complain the formula will be 
complicated to administer and will require a thorough 
understanding by polling booth workers. 
 
¶12.  (U) TSE president Xavier Cazar told AID Director and 
PolChief on April 28 that the TSE had made progress but 
faced difficult budgetary and other constraints. 
Registration of 141,407 Ecuadorian voters abroad had 
exceeded all expectations and stretched Ecuador's consulates 
to the limit.  Most of these voters (82%) registered to vote 
in Europe, especially Spain with 89,000--only 16,000 
registered in the United States.  Here at home, the TSE had 
invited the OAS to send an observation mission, and approved 
international observation proposals from the EU and CAPEL, 
and domestic observation by two Ecuadorian NGOs receiving 
AID support: "Citizen Participation" and the indigenous 
"Quel'qaj Foundation." 
 
¶13.  (U) Cazar said the TSE is working well with disabled 
citizens to ensure special attention, a claim corroborated 
by our contacts.  Braille ballots will be made available for 
blind voters for the first time.  Cazar requested ($650,000) 
in USG support to the CAPEL, for training of election 
workers at all levels.  Cazar also asked the USG to help 
close a $40,000 budget gap to meet the needs of disabled 
voters. 
 
Action Request 
-------------- 
 
¶14.  (U) AID has only $250,000 in unrestricted Development 
Assistance funds available to provide support to the TSE. 
AID also has additional funds to promote electoral 
inclusiveness, including for the disabled.  To ensure that 
Ecuador's poll workers are able to administer free, fair and 
inclusive elections, we request additional DA funding to 
support the TSE to provide electoral training, as requested 
by the electoral tribunal. 
 
JEWELL