VZCZCXYZ0065
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSK #0538/01 1421412
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221412Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4432
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC

UNCLAS MINSK 000538 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
MOSCOW FOR FAS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR PGOV PHUM ECON BO
SUBJECT: Belarus Suffers Large Crop Loss, Still Expects 
Record Harvest 
 
Ref: 05 Minsk 923 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified: Protect Accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Spring has finally come to Belarus 
and, along with it, President Aleksandr Lukashenko's mad 
fervor to attain an unrealistic harvest yield. 
Lukashenko raised the national quota of grain to 8.4 
million tons, a 700,000-ton increase to Lukashenko's 
2005 quota that was never achieved.  To meet this end, 
the GOB allocated enormous subsidies, totaling USD 1.3 
billion, in seed, fuel, chemicals, and equipment. 
However, unfavorable weather and GOB interference has 
not been sympathetic to farmers.  Belarus' cold winter 
temperatures killed over 741,000 acres of sown winter 
crops, including 50 percent of the country's winter 
wheat.  To make up for the loss, Lukashenko ordered 
farmers to replant the fields to spring crops in as 
short a time as possible with no regard to current 
weather conditions. Belarus' agriculture sector will, 
officially, come close to meeting Lukashenko's 
expectations, but unofficially, it will likely fall 
short just as it did in 2005.  End Summary. 
 
The Cold Snap 
------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In January-February 2006, Belarus witnessed the 
coldest winter in 20 years with temperatures in the 
Vitebsk district dipping to minus 29 degrees Fahrenheit 
and minus 11 degrees in Minsk.  These cold conditions 
and lack of snow resulted in a major crop loss. 
According to GOB statistics, the cold snap killed 
approximately 741,000 acres (20 percent) of the nation's 
winter crops, including 50 percent of sown winter wheat, 
30 percent of rye, and 50 percent of rapeseed.  The 
total loss, however, could be much greater than what 
authorities report.  A group of private farmers on May 
11 told Emboffs that their farms in the Minsk oblast 
lost 25-35 percent of their winter crops and in the 
Vitebsk oblast they lost over 50 percent. 
 
The Spring Sowing Campaign 
-------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Despite the losses, the GOB still expects to 
yield 8.4 million tons (metric) of grain in 2006, a 
record harvest.  To accomplish this, fields affected by 
the cold snap would be replanted to spring crops or 
pasture.  On March 29, Lukashenko ordered State Control 
Committee chairman Anatoly Tozik (now Ambassador to 
China) to complete the 2006 spring sowing campaign in a 
shorter time frame and directed his ministries to supply 
agricultural enterprises with enough seed, fuel, 
fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides, and machinery to 
complete the task.  In the following weeks, the 
government exhausted itself meeting Lukashenko's 
demands. 
 
¶4. (U) Deputy Agriculture Minister Vasily Pavlovsky on 
April 12 told reporters that sowing would begin on April 
15, ten days later than usual.  Approximately 5.7 
million acres were to be sown, including 2.7 million 
acres of grain and leguminous crops.  All grains would 
be planted by May 1, sugar beets by May 5, and potatoes 
and other crops by May 10.  Upon Lukashenko's orders, 
Pavlovsky directed farmers to work day and night to 
finish planting on time.  In addition, farmers who 
finished early were to send their machinery to other 
farms so that no tractor or planter "sat idle." 
 
Free Fertilizer. 
---------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The GOB allocated USD 1.3 billion for the 2006 
spring sowing campaign, an 89 percent year-on-year 
increase (and nearly five percent of GDP).  Out of this, 
USD 80 million reportedly went to Russia for 82,000 tons 
of phosphate fertilizers and 245,000 tons of nitrogen 
fertilizers that Belarusian manufacturers failed to 
produce.  According to Pavlovsky, farmers applied 60 
percent more chemical fertilizers to their fields in 
2006, averaging 178 pounds per acre (up from 165 pounds 
per acre in 2005) to "prepare" the topsoil that, by the 
time the sowing campaign started, had thawed only eight 
 
inches deep. 
 
.And Fuel. 
----------- 
 
¶6. (U) On March 23, the GOB allocated 60,000 tons of 
diesel fuel to farmers, but later announced that 277,000 
tons of diesel and 70,000 tons of gasoline were needed 
to complete the sowing campaign.  On April 4, the 
authorities ordered Belarus' two oil refineries in Mozyr 
and Novopolotsk (Naftan) to supply the needed gasoline 
and diesel free of charge. The "agreement" was that out 
of every 1,000 kilograms of gasoline the refineries 
produce, eight kilograms would go to farms free of 
charge.  Naftan was to supply 2,600 tons of gasoline and 
Mozyr 2,700 tons.  Both companies were to provide 3,500 
tons of diesel, approximately 38 kilograms for each ton 
produced.  The joint venture Slavneft-Start was to 
supply an additional 4,000 tons of diesel and the state- 
owned petrochemical holding company Belneftekhim was to 
supply 60,000 tons. 
 
.And Machinery 
-------------- 
 
¶7. (U) The GOB on April 18 issued a USD 59 million loan 
to the state-run equipment company Belagroservice to 
lease Belarusian tractors to farmers, provided that 
farmers repay half the tractors' cost.  The Fund for 
Support of Agricultural Producers would pay for the 
rest.  Belagroservice leased 1,230 tractors, 1,000 MAZ 
trucks, and 1,300 combines for the campaign. 
 
The Results 
----------- 
 
¶8. (U) On May 4, Agriculture Minister Leonid Rusak 
informed Lukashenko that the sowing campaign had 
finished (except for corn and sugar beet), and 445,000 
acres of winter grains were reseeded.  Lukashenko, the 
"expert" in agriculture, ordered Rusak to "toughen" 
control over spring fieldwork in order to attain good 
results. 
 
Complications 
------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Weather during the sowing campaign was not 
always favorable.  At first, many of the fields were 
still wet from the snow thaw and had not completely 
drained.  Afterwards, windy conditions blew away the 
topsoil, which was powder after visible overworking of 
the ground and a month without rain.  Farmers told 
Emboffs that erosion was a large problem, especially for 
those farming in hilly areas.  Once it did rain, the 
hills--which are planted from top to bottom rather than 
in a contour and lack terraces--form downhill rivers, 
washing away much of what is planted and flooding the 
lower areas.  A visiting U.S. farm specialist added that 
the soil quality of many Belarusian fields was very poor 
and many fields lacked topsoil.  He also mentioned that 
farms were experiencing problems with lodging, meaning 
crops were lying on the ground rather than standing 
upright, due to lack of potassium in the soil. [Note: 
Belarus is one of the world's largest exporters of 
potash fertilizer, a primary source of potassium.] 
 
¶10. (SBU) Although they face a number of obstacles, 
several private farmers told Emboffs that they expect to 
double their crop output this year because of better 
farming practices and technology.  However, whether a 
private farm or state-owned collective, the farms' 
success lay with the labor force which, as a consequence 
of the Soviet collective farm system and its 
preservation in Belarus, was largely inefficient.  All 
farmers and specialists whom Poloff has spoken to agree 
it will take at least one more generation, and likely 
privatization, before farm hands learn to work 
efficiently. 
 
Lukashenko's 2005 Quota Unrealistic 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) According to initial results, the 2005 harvest 
"yielded" approximately seven million tons, a record 
 
harvest, but one that fell short of Lukashenko's 7.7 
million-ton quota (reftel).  Regardless, GOB authorities 
celebrated the results and Lukashenko declared it was an 
indicator of Belarus' national security.  But after 
processing plants and mills dried the crops (much of 
which was water heavy and not yet ripe) and removed 
foreign material (added to grain loads to meet weight 
quotas), the final "official" yield was only 6.4 million 
tons.  Only in the end of 2005 were the final totals 
briefly mentioned in the state press, as were reports of 
manipulated yield statistics and complaints of low- 
quality grains. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Judging from Belarus' latest agriculture 
history, it is highly improbable Belarus in 2006 would 
increase its total grain yield by two million tons.  The 
cold snap was a rocky start and government interference 
hinders the development of the agriculture sector. 
Although Lukashenko's quota may be too high, authorities 
and farmers will employ their same tactics to "produce" 
a yield that may fall short of the quota, but be higher 
than last year.  Unfortunately, farmers and local 
authorities have little choice.  They can either report 
the true yields and be blamed for undermining the 
harvest, or manipulate the results with the slight 
possibility of someone calling foul. 
 
KROL