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DE RUEHSK #0501/04 1311416
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 111416Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4377
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS IMMEDIATE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE IMMEDIATE 1144
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE IMMEDIATE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 04 OF 06 MINSK 000501 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: NOVAK POST-ELECTION RESULTS MIRROR THOSE OF 
IISEPS: LUKASHENKO WON 54 PERCENT OF VOTE 
 
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MINSK 00000501  004 OF 006 
 
 
Yes, once           11.4 
No, not once        59.4 
 
"Where, in your opinion, does the population live better - 
Belarus or the EU?" 
 
           % 
EU        45.8 
Belarus   39.5 
 
"Do you ever discuss with your family, friends, and 
colleagues about how people live in the EU?" 
 
                  % 
Yes, often       22.4 
Yes, sometimes   52.2 
No               25.4 
 
"Do you think that you know enough about the EU in order to 
decide whether Belarus should join the EU?  And NATO?" 
 
       EU      NATO 
      ----     ---- 
Yes   36.0(%)  31.3 
No    55.7     61.4 
 
"Do you think that one day Belarus will join the EU?" 
 
                                 % 
No, never                       31.7 
Yes, in no less than 10 years   29.4 
Yes, within the next 10 years   13.5 
 
"Name five countries that, in your opinion, are friendly to 
Belarus and five countries that are not (more than one 
choice):" 
 
              Friendly   Not Friendly 
              --------   ------------ 
Russia          85.1(%)      1.4 
China           43.1         2.1 
Ukraine         24.9        13.5 
Kazakhstan      23.2         2.3 
Cuba            20.3         2.4 
Iran            13.3         9.8 
Latvia           9.2         9.2 
Iraq             7.9        10.9 
North Korea      6.2         2.5 
Georgia          4.2        23.8 
USA              4.1        74.3 
Britain          2.6        21.6 
Czech Republic   2.4         4.0 
 
"In the beginning of March, U.S. President George Bush, 
within the framework of the Belarusian Democracy Act, sent 
Congress a letter saying President Lukashenko's personal fund 
receives income from the sale of weapons and suggested 
Lukashenko's foreign bank accounts be frozen.  Some people 
think this is a good move and others do not.  How do you feel 
about Bush's initiative?" 
 
                % 
Positive       28.2 
Negative       38.2 
I do not care  25.9 
 
"Belarusian television often talks about a conspiracy in 
which Western countries under U.S. leadership are trying to 
organize an overthrow of power in Belarus.  Do you believe in 
this conspiracy?" 
 
         % 
Yes     41.6 
No      47.2 
 
"The EU and U.S. are bringing new sanctions against Belarus' 
leadership - including visa bans to high-level GOB officials 
and Lukashenko - who are considered responsible for the 
falsification of presidential election results and 
repressions against participants of peaceful demonstrations. 
Many of our citizens think this is a good move and others do 
not.  What do you think?" 
 
                % 
Good           16.5 
Bad            53.9 
I do not care  22.8 
 
 
MINSK 00000501  005 OF 006 
 
 
"More than a thousand demonstrators, most of them young, who 
protested against the March 19 presidential election results 
were arrested and sentenced to three to 15 days in jail.  The 
leaders of several European countries announced that if 
student participants in those demonstrations were expelled 
from Belarusian universities, then they could continue their 
studies abroad.  What do you think of this announcement?" 
 
                       % 
I accept it           46.3 
I do not accept it    41.6 
 
Russian Union 
------------- 
 
¶6. Similar to IISEPS' last survey, Belarusians indicated to 
NOVAK that they prefer a closer union with Russia to 
increased relations with the West.  A bizarre twist is that 
many respondents believe it is in Belarus' and Russia's best 
interests to let Lukashenko rule over the union state. 
 
"Would you want the USSR resurrected?" 
 
       % 
No    63.4 
Yes   26.7 
 
"It is possible that Belarus and Russia would soon hold a 
referendum on the Constitution Act, which would open the path 
for closer integration of the two governments.  How would you 
vote on this referendum?" 
 
                                   % 
For                               37.8 
Against                           14.8 
Will not vote                      7.1 
Depends on the circumstances      36.4 
 
"Many people in Belarus and Russia believe it would be better 
for both countries if they united and Lukashenko became the 
leader of the combined governments.  What do you think?" 
 
                               % 
I would like this             35.5 
It does not concern me        17.4 
I would not want this         36.0 
 
"What is the historical path, in your opinion, of Belarus? 
Of Russia?" 
 
                                        Belarus    Russia 
                                        -------    ------ 
General path of European civilization     17.3(%)   29.5 
A return to the Soviet path               25.5      19.2 
Its own, unique path                      56.8      51.2 
 
Gas Price Increases 
------------------- 
 
¶7. Many respondents claimed that a rise in Russian natural 
gas prices would not destroy the Belarusian economy, but the 
majority view GAZPROM's price hike negatively and even more 
would disapprove of a Russian takeover of Belarus' gas 
transport industry. 
 
"At the end of March, the head of Russia's GAZPROM A. Miller 
announced that beginning in 2007 Belarus would pay European 
prices for natural gas - a five-fold increase.  What do you 
think of this demand?" 
 
                                                       % 
The prices are fair. We need to pay the true price 
for goods                                             30.8 
The prices are not fair.  Russia is a close ally and 
should not demand such a high price from Belarus      61.3 
 
"In your opinion, in what conditions would it be worth it for 
Belarus to sell its gas transport system Beltransgaz?" 
 
                                                       % 
Beltransgaz should not be sold under any circumstance 82.0 
It can be sold for market price                       16.9 
 
"With which line do you agree with?" 
 
                                                       % 
Belarus- an abundant country with an economy that 
would survive even after Russia raises gas prices     53.6 
 
MINSK 00000501  006 OF 006 
 
 
If Russia raises gas prices to European levels, the 
Belarusian economy will collapse                      45.5 
 
Surveys and Information 
----------------------- 
 
¶8. "In the last year have you become familiar with (through 
the press, leaflets, conversations with colleagues) results 
of independent surveys of society's opinion?" 
        % 
Yes    21.7 
No     73.9 
 
"Do you use the internet?" 
 
                             % 
Yes, daily                   5.0 
Yes, several times a week    8.0 
Yes, several times a month   7.7 
Yes, several times a year    6.4 
No                          68.8 
 
"What sites do you visit the most?" 
 
             % 
Russian     19.7 
Belarusian  17.2 
European     9.2 
 
"What language do you use in daily conversations?" 
 
                            % 
Belarus                     3.8 
Russian                    62.2 
Russian and Belarusian     12.7 
A mix of both              21.0 
Krol