VZCZCXYZ0010
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKH #1091 1290559
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 090559Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2690
INFO RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 0906
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 0063

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 001091 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN PREF SOCI PINR SU
SUBJECT:  Juba Inflation Slows in April, then Spikes 
¶1.  A market survey in Juba taken the second week of 
April shows prices stabilizing as the early rains in 
March stopped and allowed the roads to dry up, with an 
overall inflation month-on-month rate of just over 3 
 
percent.  Drops in the price of some grains were offset 
by higher meat prices, with the food and beverage 
category posting an overall rise of just over 2.5 percent 
(Note: when meat prices go up, consumers tend to buy less 
meat.  End note.)  The household goods category remained 
basically steady, with a gain of just over 1 percent, 
which is not statistically significant.  The largest 
percentage jump, nearly 40 percent, was in the 
miscellaneous category (clothing, transportation, 
entertainment).  This was caused by the price of a bus 
ride doubling from 50 Sudanese Dinars to 100 when gas 
supplies began to dwindle. 
 
¶2.  By the end of April, diesel in Juba was unavailable, 
which caused prices to rise another 3 percent, or nearly 
7 percent over prices in March.  The prices are expected 
to return to their early April levels now that diesel is 
once again available.  Because the March rains did not 
signal the start of the true rainy season, the expected 
rainy-season price rise in April did not materialize. 
 
¶3.  Methodology:  A local employee of the USG completed 
the price survey.  Prices of goods were then adjusted 
based upon an estimation of the frequency of purchase for 
an average family of four in one month.  Due to the ad 
hoc nature of data collection, these numbers are only 
intended to be used as a general guide to capture market 
conditions in Juba.  Figures should not be compared to 
other inflation indexes.  Because prices are so low and 
the basket of goods for an average household so limited, 
small changes in pricing will lead to a larger percentage 
change than in more developed economies with broader 
selections of goods available.  Furthermore, there is a 
high degree of flexibility in purchasing patterns, and 
many households are completely outside the monetary 
economy, relying solely on bartering and subsistence 
farming.  Once it is fully operational, the Bank of 
Southern Sudan plans to do a more precise and detailed 
consumer price index. 
 
STEINFELD