VZCZCXYZ0030
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBUL #2365/01 1441508
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 241508Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0413

UNCLAS KABUL 002365 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS H SCOTT FISHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON OTRA AF
SUBJECT: KABUL SCENESETTER FOR CODEL INHOFE 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The U.S. effort in Afghanistan continues to 
promote economic reconstruction, build democratic 
institutions and develop the government's capacity to deal 
with continuing threats to security.  The Afghanistan Compact 
adopted at the January London Conference and Parliament 
elected in September and seated in December 2005 are major 
achievements.  Significant challenges remain however, 
including the need for economic reform and development and an 
uptick in the level of violence this year, particularly in 
the south.  The recent Christian convert case of Abdul Rahman 
caused perplexity among many in the West and concern among 
the Afghan population because of the contradiction in the 
Afghan Constitution between the right enshrined in the 
Universal Declaration of Human Rights and respect for Sharia 
Law - both of which are written into the Constitution.  In 
order to ensure that U.S. nation-building efforts in 
Afghanistan are successful, we will have to remain committed 
for years to come to ensure that Afghanistan does not once 
again become a breeding ground for extremist terrorist 
groups.  End Summary. 
 
The Afghanistan Compact 
----------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  At the January 2006 Afghanistan Conference in 
London, President Karzai presented to the world the face of a 
reborn and newly confident Afghanistan that, with the seating 
of its first parliament in 32 years, has successfully 
fulfilled the last major task set out in the 2001 Bonn 
Agreement.  There he delivered to the broader international 
donor community a post-Bonn vision of integrated political, 
economic and social development designed to ensure a donor 
and IFI commitment to provide Afghanistan the support needed 
to see it through the next five years.  An Afghanistan 
Compact that lays out these accomplishments and this vision 
was endorsed by over 60 national delegations who pledged USD 
10.5 billion in additional support.  The key principle of the 
Compact is Afghan leadership of - and accountability for - 
its reconstruction and development process.  It identifies 
four interdependent areas -   Security; Governance, Rule of 
Law and Human Rights; and Sustainable Economic and Social 
Development; plus a crosscutting Counternarcotics agenda that 
need to be tackled over the next five years.  The Compact 
sets out over 90 high-level benchmarks to measure progress 
and creates a UN and GoA-led monitoring and coordination 
board to ensure appropriate GoA and international community 
engagement. 
 
The Afghan Economy 
------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) In the four and a half years since the Taliban's 
defeat, post-conflict Afghanistan has achieved a remarkable 
degree of macro-economic stability that is laying a 
foundation for economic growth, development and job creation. 
 Yet progress is fragile - with an average longevity of only 
47 years, twenty percent literacy, and only 6 percent of the 
population enjoying access to electricity from the national 
grid - life for millions of Afghans has not advanced much 
beyond the Middle Ages.  Sustaining a viable Afghan nation 
will require the GoA to continue structural reforms 
encouraging private sector development; work hard to enhance 
customs and tax revenue generation; target its limited budget 
resources at pro-poor spending and productive investment; and 
contain wage costs.  Until that point ) at least a decade 
down the road -- when the GoA can generate sufficient 
domestic customs and tax revenue to cover its recurring 
budget expenses, Afghanistan will require a steady, reliable 
and well-coordinated flow of assistance from the United 
States and from the broad international donor community. 
 
¶4. (U) Economic growth in Afghanistan will be driven by 
private sector-led development.  The most serious constraints 
on such private sector development remain security and access 
to basic factors of production, including physical utilities 
and infrastructure (power, water, telecom, roads, etc.), 
land, skilled labor and finance.  The willingness of 
investors to put capital into play is further limited by a 
still inadequate commercial and financial sector activity. 
None of these constraints is unique to Afghanistan,s 
post-conflict economy.  But their concentration and 
telescoped immediacy brings the limited capacity of the GoA's 
line economic ministries into sharp relief.  Two key areas of 
commercial reform where the GoA has lagged are in 
establishing a legislative framework and in privatizing 
state-owned enterprises. 
 
Parliament 
---------- 
 
¶5. (U) Afghanistan's National Assembly is the country's first 
democratically elected legislature since the Soviet invasion. 
Its members are diverse, including former warlords and 
mujahideen commanders, tribal leaders, intellectuals, former 
leftists, reconciled Taliban and professionals.  All are 
eager to learn from international experience and wish to 
establish a close relationship with the U.S. Congress. 
 
¶6. (U) The National Assembly consists of two houses, the 
Meshrano Jirga (upper house - 68 members elected by 
Provincial Councils and 34 appointed by President Karzai) and 
the Wolesi Jirga (lower house ) 249 members elected by 
province on September 18, 2005).  One of the great 
achievements of Afghan women in post-Bonn Afghanistan is the 
fact that there are 68 women (one-quarter) in the Wolesi 
Jirga and 29 women in the Meshrano Jirga.  These women MPs 
are talented and playing a vital and accepted role in the 
Parliament. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Parliament has hit a rough spot after months of 
successfully organizing itself and a positive vote on the 
Cabinet (confirming 20 of 25 ministers).  Parliament rejected 
the Afghan budget May 21 ) on the grounds civil service 
salaries and payments to the disabled should be increased. 
The GOA was not able to accept these amendments due to 
international conditions attached to the budget, and the 
process is now at an impasse.  On May 24, Parliament approved 
only two of nine Supreme Court Justice nominees ) with 
voting that may have taken place on ethnic grounds.  They 
have also spent an extended amount of time talking about 
internal procedures (including the definition of a 
parliamentary majority).  The upper house of Parliament also 
recently voted to form a commission to review the security 
situation in the country. 
 
¶8. (U) USAID funds several projects to support the National 
Assembly.  They technical assistance and training on legal 
procedure through the State University of New York (SUNY) 
Center for International Development.  The National 
Democratic Institute (NDI) and International Republican 
Institute (IRI), which receive USAID funding, will also 
conduct programs on constituent relations and 
coalition-building in the near future. 
 
Abdul Rahman Case 
----------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Christian convert case of Abdul Rahman focused 
international attention on the lack of protection for 
religious freedom (the right of conversion) in Afghanistan. 
Credible evidence indicated that Rahman had a history of 
being under a doctor's care, and on medication, as well as 
allegedly abusing his family.  The case received huge 
attention both in the West and in Afghanistan where the 
overwhelming majority of Afghans, in their interpretation of 
Islam,s tenets, do not support the right of conversion.  A 
contradiction remains in the Afghan Constitution, which 
states that & no law can be contrary to the beliefs and 
provisions of the sacred religion of Islam,8 (and Shariah 
Law), while also stating support for the Universal 
Declaration on Human Rights, which specifically includes the 
right of conversion.  Helping Afghanistan to resolve this 
contradiction will likely be the focus of our efforts for 
some time.  The GOA was able to release Rahman from detention 
on the grounds that facts concerning his mental state 
rendered the case incomplete, and he subsequently received 
asylum in Italy. 
 
Security 
-------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) There has been a significant increase in security 
incidents and attacks since the beginning of the year, an 
increase which the Embassy predicted.  There are many reasons 
behind the upsurge ) from pushback to poppy interdiction 
efforts in the south, to the Taliban,s desire to &test8 
newly-arriving ISAF forces taking over from the coalition in 
the South.  The GOA is developing a plan to send more Afghan 
National Police to areas in the south which have heightened 
security concerns. Details on the security situation are 
sensitive, but the codel will be briefed on the key issues 
the morning of their arrival. 
 
Conclusion 
---------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Afghanistan is where the 9/11 plot was hatched. 
The U.S government is working hard at the task of 
nation-building to ensure that Afghanistan will never again 
be the source of another major terrorist attack.  In order to 
succeed, it is crucial that we continue our long term 
commitment to support the creation of a democratic, stable 
and prosperous Afghanistan.  We will continue to work on 
security to provide a safe environment for development.  Many 
challenges remain in improving the economy, putting 
Afghanistan's nascent democracy on a stronger footing and 
creating a stable Afghanistan that is part of the modern 
world.  It is in our country's vital interest to see this 
effort through. 
NEUMANN