VZCZCXRO8472
RR RUEHGR
DE RUEHGE #0462/01 1371923
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171923Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY GEORGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3509
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0956
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0306
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0117
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 2145
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0046
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GEORGETOWN 000462 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/CAR 
WHA/OAS 
S/CRS 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINS KDEM OAS GY
SUBJECT: POLITICAL STALEMATE CONTINUES: ELECTION PREVIEW #8 
 
REF: A. GEORGETOWN 371 
 
     ¶B. GEORGETOWN 344 
     ¶C. GEORGETOWN 308 
     ¶D. GEORGETOWN 181 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY.  Guyana's election impasse has moved into a 
new phase.  The country currently has neither a legislature 
(dissolved May 2 by President Jagdeo) nor an election date 
(no new date has been set since the Guyana Elections 
Commission (GECOM) decided April 12 that it could not meet 
the August 4 constitutional due date for elections (ref A)). 
Over the past month GECOM has worked towards a revised 
timeline for an August 31 election day.  The GoG has 
temporarily bought itself some breathing room by unilaterally 
amending the constitution to extend the election deadline by 
one month -- a move that has predictably brought threats of 
legal action from the opposition.  Observers agree that 
meeting even this new September 2 constitutional deadline 
will be very difficult.  While Parliament's dissolution 
passed without great incident, opposition leaders at a May 13 
rally called on their supporters to take to the streets in 
protest.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Governance Status: No Legislature, No Election Date 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶2. (U) President Jagdeo dissolved Parliament on May 2 (the 
next to last possible day) without bipartisan consensus on 
election timing or how to deal with the country's governance 
until elections take place.  Just prior, Parliament amended 
Article 61 of Guyana's constitution to require that elections 
be held within four months of Parliament's dissolution, 
instead of three months as originally written.  The GoG was 
able to pass this amendment with a simple majority. 
Legislators left Article 69, the other pertinent section, 
unchanged -- the new Parliament "shall begin ... four months 
from the end" of the prior Parliament's dissolution.  Unlike 
Article 61, Article 69 is one of the constitution's sections 
that requires a two-thirds majority (and thus opposition 
support) to amend.  The parliamentary opposition parties were 
counting on this fact to extract political concessions for 
their support of an amendment.  Circumvented by the GoG, the 
opposition predictably disagrees with the GoG's 
constitutional interpretation and has threatened legal 
challenge. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Where does this constitutional tinkering leave the 
elections process?  On the one hand, the GoG has temporarily 
bought itself some breathing room by extending the 
constitutional due date for elections to September 2, in 
post's estimation.  (Note: The parties and GECOM are still 
unclear as to whether the actual new due date is September 
2nd or 3rd -- underscoring that this was a rush job 
constitutional amendment).  On the other hand, the consensus 
view in Georgetown is that the chances of meeting the new 
deadline are slim.  Under Article 69, the new Parliament is 
still constitutionally mandated to meet by September 2. 
GECOM is working on the basis of a timeline with an August 31 
election day.  This creates an untenable situation.  In 
practical terms, this means that votes would have to be 
transported and counted, results announced, and new MPs named 
between August 31 and September 2 -- an almost inconceivable 
scenario even in the unlikely event that there are no more 
slippages in GECOM's work plan. 
 
¶4. (U) The GoG's internal legal analysis supporting Article 
61's amendment also set forth the opinion that President 
Jagdeo and his ministers could remain in their positions 
indefinitely until the next elections are held. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
Opposition Election Commissioners Return: But For How Long? 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The three opposition-nominated election commissioners 
who "withdrew" from GECOM April 15 returned to the fold for 
GECOM's May 12 meeting.  Nevertheless, the meeting was 
acrimonious and unproductive.  The source of dispute remains 
 
GEORGETOWN 00000462  002 OF 002 
 
 
the opposition's demand for verification of the voters list 
(reftels).  Having set a precedent of retreating when they 
fail to get their way, the opposition commissioners could 
withdraw again before the May 19 GECOM meeting. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Faltering Political Dialogue; Opposition Rally Call 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶6. (U) The ruling PPP/C and main opposition PNC/R parties 
continue to engage in a halting dialogue aimed at resolving 
the impasse over verification.  If a solution is to be found, 
it will have to come from the politicians rather than GECOM. 
However, both sides have sent only lukewarm signals of 
willingness to compromise. 
 
¶7. (U) The parliamentary opposition parties held a May 13 
rally, urging their supporters to "enter the struggle" and go 
"into the streets".  PNC/R leader Robert Corbin later invoked 
his stock phrase again: "There can be no peace without 
justice."  As usual, the speakers did not explain what these 
statements/threats entail, nor what supporters should do once 
they are in the streets. 
 
------------------------------ 
OAS Long-term Observers Arrive 
------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (U) OAS' two-person electoral observation mission arrived 
in Guyana May 12-13.  They are on contract to remain in 
country through the end of September and will focus on 
technical preparations for the elections. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Most observers think that further slippages in 
election preparations are unavoidable, meaning that the 
additional month gained by the constitutional amendment is 
merely a superficial fix.  The root cause of the unresolved 
election delay is the ruling PPP/C and opposition PNC/R's 
unwillingness to find a political compromise that allows 
elections to proceed in a constructive fashion.  Without such 
negotiation and compromise, the political temperature in 
Guyana will continue to rise as September and a fresh 
constitutional crisis draw closer.  END COMMENT. 
 
Bullen