VZCZCXRO4434
PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0835/01 1241747
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P 041747Z MAY 06
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000835 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, S/P, EB 
PLEASE PASS TO TDA 
MANILA FOR ADB AMB. SPELTZ 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON ENRG AF TI
SUBJECT: TAJIK DEPUTY PM OUTLINES VISION FOR HYDROPOWER SECTOR 
 
REF: A)  DUSHANBE 0326  B) DUSHANBE 0327  C) DUSHANBE 0748  D) DUSHANBE 0802 
 
DUSHANBE 00000835  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please handle accordingly. 
Not for public Internet. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Although the Chinese have made the Tajiks an 
offer too good to refuse on a South-North transmission line 
project, according to Deputy Prime Minister Asadullo Ghulomov, 
many energy projects remain for U.S. and other investors.  AES's 
proposed project to build 220 kV transmission lines to the 
Afghan border remains on track, but the Asian Development Bank 
(ADB) has yet to finalize the funding - which appears to be the 
key sticking point.  Ghulomov prefers that Tajik presentations 
at the June Istanbul conference focus on mid-sized generation 
and transmission projects and not rehabilitation of existing 
facilities that will bring only small increases in output. 
Dasti Zhum represents the first of three significant hydropower 
projects he says will "tame the River Pyanzh" and bring energy 
security to future generations in the region.  He hinted that 
the United States could take the lead on regional transmission 
projects.  END SUMMARY 
 
¶3.  (SBU) An exceptionally animated Ghulomov spent more than 75 
minutes May 5 explaining his vision for Tajikistan's hydropower 
sector.  He confirmed press reports that the Chinese would 
finance and construct South-North (Dushanbe-Khujand) high 
voltage lines, offering 95% financing through a 20-year loan 
with a seven-year grace period.  A second high-voltage line 
between Lolazor and Obi Mazor, west of Dushanbe, was included in 
the package.  Ghulomov noted the Chinese deal was part of a 
regional $900 million assistance package through the Shanghai 
Cooperation Organization.  Reluctant to call it absolutely 
final, he reported the Chinese and Tajiks would sign the 
agreement on June 15, and noted that while they welcomed any 
investment in that project, no other donors or investors came 
close to matching the Chinese terms. 
 
AES ON TRACK 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Financing was the last hurdle delaying the 
government's signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with 
AES to construct 220 kV transmission lines, but Ghulomov 
dismissed this as a technicality. "Signing an MOU, an agreement 
or a contract, what does it matter?  We've agreed to do it and 
are waiting for the ADB or another donor to figure out the 
funding. " (NOTE: AES has been waiting for the Tajiks to sign an 
MOU that would establish a joint venture to build the lines. 
END NOTE.)   Ghulomov looks forward to meeting the AES CEO when 
he visits Dushanbe at the end of May.  He also proposed AES 
consider medium sized-generation projects. 
 
TDA ISTANBUL CONFERENCE 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Ghulomov accepted the invitation to the U.S.-sponsored 
"Energy Without Borders" conference in June in Istanbul, but 
observed the presentations the Trade and Development Agency 
requested did not entirely match Tajikistan's energy priorities. 
 Ghulomov saw no point inpresenting the South-North transmission 
lines project days before they would sign the agreement with the 
Chinese.  According to Ghulomov, the Kairakkum rehabilitation 
project would only bring a net gain of 12 MW to Tajikistan's 
energy supply.  He stated that rehabilitation projects were a 
low priority. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Instead, Ghulomov proposed that after his overview 
presentation, Energy Minister Yurov could outline projects in 
 
DUSHANBE 00000835  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
the upper Vakhsh, including Enurskaya hydropower station and 
Garmskaya hydropower station, a 400 MW project. (NOTE:  This is 
the first time anyone in the Tajik government suggested 
developing the upper Vakhsh river.  Most talk focuses on Rogun 
and below, and Enurskaya does not appear in any of the previous 
Ministry of Energy materials. END NOTE.)  Ghulomov suggested 
state-run electric utility Barqi Tojik's presentation focus on 
high voltage lines, namely Rogun-Sangtuda to the Afghan border. 
REGIONAL TRANSMISSION LINES NEEDED 
¶7.  (SBU) Changing topics, Ghulomov explained that new 
transmission lines to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan would help 
Dushanbe break its dependence on Uzbekistan to transmit power to 
northern Tajikistan, but noted it was a sensitive topic and not 
yet a matter for public discussion.  He drew a map to show how a 
transmission line from Kazakhstan to Datka, Kyrgyzstan, to 
Khujand could supply Tajikistan's Sughd region with 6.5 billion 
kilowatts per hour per year. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) This power transmission would supply reliable 
electricity to Sughd, freeing Tajikistan to export electricity 
from its southern grid.  Currently the Sughd electricity grid is 
connected to the southern grid through 1500 km of 500KV 
transmission line running through Uzbekistan.  They would save 
money on transit fees, he noted.  "And we would prevent 
Uzbekistan from controlling us!" he added with a smile.   He 
commented on how a 220KV power transmission line exists between 
Konibodom, Tajikistan, and Batken, Kyrgyzstan, but 22 km of this 
line runs through Uzbekistan.  Uzbekistan finds various reasons 
to interrupt power transmission.  "We have good relations with 
the Kyrgyz and the Kazakhs, but we need a catalyst to start this 
(high voltage transmission line) project," he commented. 
However, he suggested several times that the United States could 
play a regional role in establishing a transmission network. 
DASTI ZHUM 
¶9.  (SBU) Ghulomov was pleased that his trip with PolOff to the 
Dasti Zhum site April 17 had made such an impression on the 
visiting advisors from Embassy Kabul (reftel C).  The 4000 MW 
Dasti Zhum was the first of three large projects. Hydropower 
stations at Roshan (3,000 MW) and Granite Gates (2,100 MW) would 
also help tame River Pyanzh, he said.  PolOff emphasized that to 
attract donors, Tajikistan and Afghanistan would need to take 
some concrete steps to prove their cooperation before anyone 
would consider funding even a feasibility study. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Ghulomov could offer no clarification on the status 
of agreements between Tajikistan and Afghanistan.  "The 
Cooperative Agreement has been signed," he argued.  When posed 
the question whether there were any outstanding agreements that 
need to be signed before Tajikistan could export electricity 
south, he paused and noted that a seven-member Afghan delegation 
led by the deputy minister of power would be in Dushanbe May 
21-22 to discuss further cooperation in the power transmission 
and electricity issues.  (COMMENT:  We are concerned that 
Tajikistan and Afghanistan left on their own, without 
international advisers present, will not necessarily do the 
right things to move forward.  We suggest Embassy Kabul consider 
the possibility of adding U.S. advisers to this Afghan 
delegation.  We will help on the Tajik side to the fullest 
extent possible.  END COMMENT.) 
 
 
¶11.  (SBU) COMMENT:  Ghulomov was unusually expansive, and kept 
an Avian Flu assessment team from the WHO, UNICEF, FAO, and 
World Bank waiting 45 minutes while he carefully explained his 
vision to us.  He seemed enthusiastic about the Istanbul 
 
DUSHANBE 00000835  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
conference, but wanted to be sure the requested presentations 
were in line with what Tajikistan needed and wanted to do. 
Fortunately, he did not push mega-project Dasti Zhum as a topic 
for Istanbul, but understood the need for concrete projects that 
would attract U.S. investors and suppliers.   He ran out of time 
before talking about the goals of the Islamabad regional energy 
meeting May 8-9, or the latest on RAO UES and Sangtuda, but 
promised to meet again at the end of the month.  END COMMENT. 
HOAGLAND