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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 002681 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KISL BG
SUBJECT: PRE ELECTION JOCKEYING CONTINUES 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Election Commission issued a voter list 
based on a fresh voter canvas, which showed a 22 percent 
increase over previous election lists. AL SYG Jalil responded 
to BNP SYG Bhuiyan to ask for mutual concessions in creating 
an acceptable dialogue committee to discuss AL demands for 
electoral reforms. Splinter Islamic party breaks from BNP led 
four-party alliance to create new Islamic party. End summary. 
 
ELECTION COMMISSION ISSUES NEW VOTER LIST 
========================================= 
 
¶2. (SBU) On May 3, the Election Commission (EC) issued its 
"draft" list of 91.3 million voters.  Media criticized this 
as an unusually large over the 2001 voter list saying that 
such an increase would only be possible if there were no 
deaths and no one was excluded from the count  US AID funded 
National Democratic Institute (NDI) statisticians told poloff 
that based on the 2001 census, after adjusting for any 
undercount, the maximum number eligible age population could 
only be a projected 77.0 million. They said that without 
conducting a statistically valid sampling, it's not possible 
to know the basis for the EC's list but speculated that the 
difference may be double counts and/or fictitious names. 
 
¶3. (SBU) BNP appointed Election Commissioner Mohamed Zakaria 
told embassy that the year 2000 voter list prepared by the AL 
government then in power showed a 33 percent increase in 
voters from the 1995 list.  He said that the current list 
shows an increase of only 22 percent, charged that the 
allegations of political bias are wholly partisan based, and 
that the EC had doubts about any comparison using census data. 
 
WHY A NEW VOTERS LIST ANYWAY? 
============================= 
 
¶4. (SBU) After the EC declared it would create an entirely 
new list, the High Court on January 4 ruled that the EC 
should update the list and not make a new list.  The EC 
appealed, and the Supreme Court deferred a decision several 
times, with the latest deferral set for May 14.  Election 
Commissioner Zakaria insisted to poloff that the law 
stipulates that a new list must be created for each election. 
 Awami League (AL) appointed and recently retired Election 
Commission Munsef Ali disagreed in an interview with poloff. 
Ali said the law only provides for updating or revising the 
voter list.  He told poloff he read the law to Zakaria who 
agreed that the list could only be updated.  However the next 
day, Ali said, Zakaria said the EC's decision was to create a 
new list. Ali said that Zakaria explained that although 
making a new list is inconsistent with the law, making a new 
list has been done in the past and we should continue the 
practice, even if it's wrong. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Asked if there was enough time to correct any 
problems with a possible overcount, Zakaria blamed the High 
Court's decisions for any potential delays.  He told poloff 
that the hand written "draft" list would be open for 
inspection at the 503 sub-district election offices as well 
as at the 83 election districts.  May 22 would be the last 
day for people to file complaints or objections and officials 
have until June 25 to revise the list. Then the list will be 
made typed, computerized and would be available three months 
later.  Zakaria said that although the typed lists would be 
available in electronic format, they would be organized only 
by locality.  When asked about how the EC would solve the 
problem of double counting, when the same person migrates 
from one area to another, and is included on both lists, 
Zakaria acknowledged there would be no central data base, and 
it's the law that prevents them from having one. 
 
¶6. (SBU) AL Presidium member Muhuiddin Khan Alamgir told 
poloff that the AL rejected the voter list outright.  "We 
don't think anyone can accept a voter list that exceeds our 
historic population growth."  Alamgir criticized the limited 
distribution, saying that the voter lists need to be 
distributed to the 4,500 rural unions, which is one step 
lower that the sub-election districts. Only then can the 
local people see if their names are excluded or not. 
 
EFFORTS TO START ELECTION REFORM DIALOGUE CONTINUES 
============================================= ====== 
 
¶7. (SBU) On May 9, media reported that AL's Secretary General 
Abdul Jalil replied in a letter to BNP's Secretary General 
 
DHAKA 00002681  002 OF 002 
 
 
Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan suggesting both sides might offer 
concessions. At issue is the inclusion of Jamaat Islami on a 
proposed dialogue committee to discuss AL and its 14 party 
alliance demands for electoral and caretaker government 
reforms.  Asked about JI's exclusion, Bhuiyan said that since 
the BNP is already in an alliance with JI, it is difficult to 
exclude them.  Jamaat Islami's Senior Assistant Secretary 
General Mohamed Kamruzzaman told poloff that JI's position is 
that there can be no dialogue committee without JI and he has 
BNP's assurances on that.  AL Whip Farouk Khan discounted 
AL's opposition to Jamaat Islami, saying that BNP's nominated 
committee is not sufficiently high ranking; the BNP 
delegation does not include Secretary General Bhuiyan while 
AL's committee has AL Secretary General Jalil. 
 
SPLINTER IOJ GROUP QUITS FOUR-PARTY ALLIANCE 
========================================= 
 
¶8. (SBU) On May 6, the smallest faction of the Islami Oikiya 
Jote (IOJ) announced they would quit the four-party alliance, 
citing misrule and corruption, and would form their a new 
party, the Bangladesh Islami Oikiya Jote (BIOJ) led by 
Misabahur Rahman.  Media reported that BIOJ members would 
support the AL led 14-party alliance's demands, and had 
"positive" discussions with the Sheikh Hasina.  IOJ is 
composed of five Islamic based faction with the largest 
faction having three MPs under Maulana Fazlul Haque Amini and 
another faction composed of MP Azizul Haque. 
CHAMMAS