VZCZCXYZ0009
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1210/01 1511544
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 311544Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4701
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001210 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION IRAQ; COLOMBIAN ELECTIONS; UN 
SECURITY COUNCIL; ENRON CASE; US IMMIGRATION 
LEGISLATION; ARGENTINE JUDICIAL SECURITY; IMF 
DELEGATION TO ARGENTINA; MERCOSUR; MONTENEGRO 
05/30/06;BUENOS AIRES 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Weekend stories include the current situation in Iraq; 
the outcome of Colombian elections; the imminent 
voting at the UN Security Council to remove five of 
its non-permanent members; the implications of the 
Enron case; the status of the US immigration draft 
bill; the arrival of an IMF delegation to Argentina; 
the re-launching of Mercosur and Venezuela's entry 
into it; the independence of Montenegro; Venezuelan 
President Hugo Chavez preparing to sign deals to 
secure his country's role in Bolivia's recent 
nationalized energy industry; and Hamas withdrawing 
its militia from the streets of Gaza. 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" (05/28) published an 
interview with Leslie Burger, Library Association 
President, who lectured at the 39th Argentine Meeting 
of Librarians in Buenos Aires. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES 
 
- "Far from a triumphant attitude, Bush and Blair 
issue a 'mea culpa' about Iraq" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading 
"Clarin," writes (05/27) "... President George W. Bush 
and PM Tony Blair gave a joint press conference to 
issue a 'mea culpa' due to the mistakes made in Iraq. 
Aware of the cost that those mistakes have had on 
their respective presidencies and the manner in which 
it affected their popularity rates, both were more 
united than ever. 
 
"Bush admitted having used a tough language, with 
which he gained the image of a cowboy decided to 
exterminate Indians... 
 
"... Furthermore, Bush said that the most important 
mistake on a military level was the abuse of prisoners 
at Abu Ghraib and the pictures that were shown all 
over the world... 
 
"For his part, Blair said that his most important 
mistake was having overthrown every former member of 
the Baaz political party, which left the Iraqi 
government institutions without any government 
official with the necessary knowledge and background 
to perform duties." 
 
- "They still don't get it" 
 
Gwynne Dyer, contributor to liberal, English-language 
"Buenos Aires Herald," writes (05/30) "... The 
original decision to invade Iraq was the fatal 
mistake; the rest is just consequences. Iraq's 
government was crueler and less loved than most 
regimes in the Arab world, but the US and UK would be 
facing the same kind of resistance movement today if 
they had invaded Morocco, Egypt or Yemen in 2003. 
There is no country of over two million people in the 
Arab world where an invading US army would not soon be 
confronted by the kind of resistance it is facing in 
Iraq. 
 
"... If some other country had invaded Iraq with the 
best of intentions - Russia, say, or Japan - it might 
have got away with it. But the Anglo-American invasion 
of Iraq was doomed from the first, and Bush and Blair 
had dozens of experts on call who could have told them 
why. Either they didn't listen, or they chose not to 
ask." 
 
- "Iraq cannot write the final chapter yet" 
 
Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed piece by Felipe A. 
¶M. de la Balze, international economist and 
negotiator, who opines (05/28) "The Iraqi people has 
been subject during almost all its history to cruel 
tyrannies... 
 
"Since last week, for the first time in its history, 
Iraq has a 'national unity' democratic government 
including its most representative communities - 
 
 
 
 
Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis... 
 
"... According to the optimistic ones, the 
conformation of a national unity government is the 
first step toward a new Iraq. The pessimistic believe 
that Iraq will inexorably be pushed to civil war... 
 
"... For the USG, the possibility of civil war 
represents a strategic, almost humiliating defeat." 
 
- "Bush's victory; Chavez's setback" 
 
Business-financial "Ambito Financiero's" columnist 
Marcelo Falaz writes (05/29) "If Alvaro Uribe's 
reelection has been much more of a possibility for 
months, his definitive triumph is the most emphasized 
news of yesterday's elections and has an impact beyond 
Colombia. 
 
"The outcome of Colombian elections implies strong 
support for the most pro-US South American 
administration and, at the same time, a possible brake 
on Hugo Chavez's wishes to gain regional influence. 
 
"Colombia's importance for the Bush administration is 
that US top priority issues (drug trafficking, 
terrorism, and free trade) overlap extensively in that 
country." 
 
- "A hard regional role for Bogota" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading 
"Clarin," opines (05/30) "... Just like Chavez's 
successive triumph and the most recent one of Evo 
Morales did not imply... an automatic rebirth of a 
'populist chaos' in the region..., four years of 
sustained economic growth and a notorious reduction of 
violence are the reasons for Uribe's victory... 
Neither the right nor the left wing can today 
disregard Latin America's real mosaic. 
 
"Nevertheless, the truth is that four more years for 
Uribe will place Colombia in a troubled regional 
situation, between the sword and a hard place. 'The 
Times' newspaper considered (Colombia) a crucial place 
'in the new Cold War' that is occurring in South 
America, in clear reference to the growing 
confrontation between the US and Venezuela. 
 
"Colombia is in the middle of a confrontation between 
its first and second trading partners. And, while 
Uribe's obvious empathy is tuned to Bush's view and he 
depends on Bush for his future FTA and for continued 
military aid, the truth is that Venezuela not only 
represents an economic asset (for Colombia) but a 
national security issue as well." 
 
- "An ally of George W. Bush" 
 
Mercedes Lopez San Miguel, columnist of left-of-center 
"Pagina 12," writes (05/29) "One of the few remaining 
allies of the Bush administration in the region, which 
is increasingly hostile to it, is perpetuating in 
power. Recently, both Bush and Uribe signed an FTA, 
and Washington is funding the so-called Plan Colombia 
(an anti-drug plan that ended up in an 'anti- 
terrorism' plan). 
 
"Alvaro Uribe's reelection occurs now that the Andean 
Community of Nations is dying, and the Cuban- 
Venezuelan-Bolivian axis has invigorated since Evo 
Morales took over. 
 
"The man who has a tough line with insurrection and 
ties with the paramilitary, has two challenges on both 
the domestic and international levels - coming to 
terms with the FARC and reviving the Andean Community 
of Nations." 
 
- "Chile rejects US pressure" 
 
Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" reports (05/30) 
"Chilean Foreign Minister Alejandro Foxley said 
yesterday that his country is willing to be persuaded, 
 
 
 
 
not pressured, to vote at the UN Security Council, 
which will remove five of its non-permanent members. 
 
"... According to 'La Tercera' local newspaper, the 
USG had warned Chile that the bilateral relationship 
between the two countries will be damaged if Chile 
supports Venezuela's entry into the UN Security 
Council." 
 
- "The Enron case and a statement of condemnation of 
corporate culture" 
 
Mario Diament, contributor to daily-of-record "La 
Nacion," comments (05/27) "... The US verdict against 
two business executives of the Enron Company was a 
condemnation of a perverse trend in US corporate 
culture. 
 
"... The implications of the Enron case are not 
limited to the business environment. To a great 
extent, they reach the White House due to a series of 
complex ties between Kenneth Lay and George W. Bush... 
 
"As has happened with other scandals, including that 
of the war in Iraq, Bush has managed to avoid all 
responsibility. 
 
"With his popularity rate at the lowest level in 
history, Bush has the advantage of a tiger and its 
stripes - one more stripe does not make a difference." 
 
- "Key US immigration legislation makes progress" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (05/26) "The US 
took an important step yesterday toward the biggest 
immigration reform in 20 years through the US Senate's 
approval of a restrictive immigration draft bill that 
will increase the penalties for those hiring illegal 
immigrants and reinforce border controls. However, the 
initiative includes the possibility that nearly ten 
million undocumented immigrants will obtain US 
citizenship. 
 
"The (US) Senate's deal represents the first clear 
triumph for President Bush's domestic agenda during 
recent months. However, the draft bill could suffer 
deep changes. The Lower House approved its own text, 
even harsher, last December, and now legislators will 
have to come to terms about a unique draft bill that 
can be passed. 
 
"In an election year, the initiative immediately 
triggered an increasing wave of demonstrations of 
immigrants, civil rights defenders and the Catholic 
Church... 
 
"... If approved, this immigration reform will affect 
the future of millions of workers and their families, 
most of whom have come from Latin America." 
 
- "A very premature reelection project" 
 
Joaquin Morales Sola, political analyst of daily-of- 
record "La Nacion," comments (05/28) "They talk about 
Kirchner's reelection as it only depended on his 
solitary decision. 
 
"... The international economy is having a negative 
twist... Its direct consequences may not be 
catastrophic either for Latin America or for 
Argentina... 
 
"However, a deceleration in world economic growth 
could bring some reduction in the prices of Argentine 
exports... 
 
"Argentina's economic growth was based on four pillars 
- high exchange rate, high fiscal surplus and trade 
surplus, and inflation under control. For those 
variables to continue, consistency and a high level of 
investment are needed. 
 
"Argentina needs direct foreign investment. It has 
 
 
 
 
received less than deserved during recent years 
because the required domestic political and judicial 
conditions never existed. Things are worse today - at 
the current pace, that investment could only be half 
of that of last year. Even domestic investment could 
be reluctant due to virtual price control accords, the 
lack of a strategic plan and the official rebuffs to 
businessmen who are, in last instance, investors." 
 
- "An IMF delegation will arrive today in the country 
to monitor the situation of the economy" 
 
Juan Cerruti, economic columnist of business-financial 
"El Cronista," writes (05/29) "After the total 
cancellation of Argentina's debt to the IMF, both the 
IMF and the Argentine Government will resume formal 
contacts when an IMF delegation arrives today in the 
country... 
 
"The purpose of this delegation is gathering 
information for an IMF annual audit on the evolution 
of the economy of every IMF country-member... 
According to speculation, the delegation will 
particularly focus on two variables - the status of 
inflation and the evolution of (governmental) 
expenditure, and the situation of the provinces." 
 
- "A USG position is being defined, which will be 
crucial for Argentina" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading 
"Clarin," writes (05/28) "Now that the departure of US 
Treasury Secretary John Snow is imminent, there are 
three candidates to replace him - former Secretary of 
Commerce Dan Evans..., current number two at the US 
Department of State Robert Zoellick, and Secretary of 
Commerce Carlos Gutierrez. 
 
"... Zoellick was one of the  main protagonists of 
attempts to re-launch the FTAA..., and has closely 
followed our region and particularly Argentina and its 
deep economic crisis. 
 
"For his part, Carlos Gutierrez has played a very 
active role in trade negotiations, and was one of the 
members of Bush's delegation at the Summit of the 
Americas." 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "Uribe's triumph in Colombia" 
 
An editorial in daily-of-record "La Nacion" reads 
(05/30) "Colombian conservative President Alvaro 
Uribe's sliding victory... has broken the prevailing 
Latin American trend of recent times to vote left-wing 
or center-to-left candidates. However, we should 
recognize that the violence caused by guerrillas and 
narcoterrorism has turned Colombia into a very 
different country vis--vis the rest of the 
hemisphere, and that this has determined the outcome 
of presidential elections. 
 
"... Uribe's re-election is a clear victory of his 
government's frontal policy against guerrillas and 
high crime rates in big urban hubs... but it has also 
implied the people's support for the country's 
sustained economic growth after 1999 recession. 
 
"... With all the power Colombians have granted to 
Uribe, he will be in a position to consolidate his 
policy oriented to put an end to violence and put the 
country on a safe track towards stabilization and 
peace. For this purpose, it will be fundamental that a 
frontal struggle against guerrillas and drug 
trafficking will continue guaranteeing the full 
enforcement of human rights." 
 
- "Mercosur's re-launching" 
 
Conservative "La Prensa" (05/26) editorializes "... 
Venezuela's entry in MERCOSUR will have economic and 
political effects that should be considered, 
particularly bearing in mind the difficult situation 
 
 
 
 
the alliance is going through due to bilateral 
confrontations and unsolved issues regarding trade 
asymmetries among its partners... 
 
"To all this, one should add the USG's increasing 
mistrust regarding the progress made by the Venezuelan 
government in the area, which has been one of the most 
important points taken into account for the definitive 
nomination of a new US ambassador to our country." 
 
- "Montenegro, a new State" 
 
Leading "Clarin" editorializes (05/27) "There are 
processes of integration and disintegration in the 
current international scenario, which reveal the 
strong tensions within societies... 
 
"The EU is the most successful example of a supra- 
national integration process. The disintegration of 
former Yugoslavia... has been the harshest expression 
of dis-integration processes. 
 
"We should equally emphasize that Montenegro's 
independence has been peaceful and has not threatened 
to end up in another outburst of violence. 
 
"... The independence of the small state of Montenegro 
closes a traumatic cycle in the expectation of a new 
form of coexistence with its neighbors, which will 
discourage extreme fragmentation." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
GUTIERREZ