VZCZCXYZ0012
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #1037/01 1281945
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 081945Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4438
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001037 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION IRAN LATIN AMERICA CHAVEZ US 
IMMIGRATION POLICY US/URUGUAYAN FTA 05/08/06 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Weekend stories cover the probable crash between the 
US and Iran; Latin America's regional situation after 
Bolivia's nationalization of hydrocarbons; Brazilian 
fears of a regional 'cold war;' the US "praising 
Argentine and Brazilian efforts to contain Bolivia;" 
the alleged disappointment of Uruguayan President 
Vazquez at the US trade proposal; the alleged military 
imbalance in South America; the role of Venezuelan 
President Chavez in promoting regional crises in South 
America; President Kirchner rallying tens of thousands 
of Argentines against a paper mill project in Uruguay; 
the government of Sudan and the main Darfur rebel 
faction signing a peace agreement to end three years 
of fighting; UK PM Tony Blair overhauling his 
government after one of the worst local election 
defeats of his premiership; and the Argentine Foreign 
Ministry's statement that UN head Kofi Annan would not 
mediate in a diplomatic spat between Argentina and 
Uruguay over the construction of two paper mills. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES AND KEY STORIES 
 
- "Iran could leave a critical nuclear treaty" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports (05/08) "One day 
before the permanent members of the UN Security 
Council, plus Germany, gathered in order to establish 
their strategy vis--vis the Iranian nuclear plan, 
Tehran warned that it will withdraw from the Non 
Proliferation Treaty if the West continues pressuring 
the country to suspend its uranium enrichment program. 
 
"This challenge occurred shortly after US President 
George W. Bush said that Iran represents a threat to 
Israel and other countries and called to take Iranian 
warnings seriously." 
 
- "Iran: burning the bridges" 
 
Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald" 
carries an opinion piece by Gwynne Dyer, who writes 
(05/08) "The draft resolution on Iran's nuclear 
activities that the US, UK and France presented to the 
UN Security Council on Wednesday is designed to fail. 
By making it a Chapter Seven resolution..., the 
authors have guaranteed that it will ultimately face a 
veto by Russia and China, neither of which is 
convinced that such extreme measures are necessary. 
 
"They are not necessary, but this resolution burns the 
bridges on further negotiations..., and there have 
been heavy hints in Washington of military action 
against Iran. If President Bush follows the same path 
that he took into Iraq, a 'failure to act' by the 
Security Council is the necessary precursor to an 
attack on Iran. Such an attack would make no military 
sense, but US foreign policy is still in the hands of 
neo-conservatives whose mantra used to be that 'the 
boys go to Baghdad, the men go to Tehran. 
 
"... Iran will not back down, and neither will the US. 
The crash is probably still many months away, but 
these two countries are on a collision course. So it 
might be a good time to reconsider the question of 
what capabilities Iran is really seeking with its 
nuclear programs." 
 
- "A troubled world" 
 
Eduardo van der Kooy, political columnist of leading 
"Clarin," writes (05/07) "The region is in a chaotic 
situation... Tabare Vazquez's meeting with George W. 
Bush seemed the most meaningful gesture of his anger 
with Mercosur. 
 
"... Washington has long disregarded the Southern Cone 
and is still trapped by the eternal mess in the Middle 
East and the war in Iraq. But in the following weeks 
US Ambassador to the OAS John Maisto will visit 
Argentina and Brazil... He will, among other things, 
look into the reasons why the region has begun to look 
like a volcano. Washington has an idea about it. 
 
"This idea is called Chavez, who is involved in every 
conflict in the region... Kirchner and Lula thought 
 
they discovered Chavez's influence in the Bolivian 
president's fast decision to nationalize hydrocarbons. 
 
"... Washington will raise two issues that directly or 
indirectly involve Venezuela. Maisto will look into 
Argentina and Brazil's stance vis--vis the UN 
Security Council's resolution on Iran. Chavez publicly 
supported Tehran's nuclear plan. Kirchner and Lula let 
Chavez know their disagreement with it. But no one 
knows for sure whether they will support the 
condemnation promoted by the US. They are suspected 
not to do it. 
 
"... The other dilemma is the temporary chair at the 
UN Security Council... Washington will surely not want 
to see Chavez there with his fiery statements against 
the White House. Maisto could convey this fear." 
 
- "An option between democracy and populism" 
 
Joaquin Morales Sola, political columnist of daily-of- 
record "La Nacion," opines (04/08) "... The conflict 
over energy could spoil the climate of dialogue and 
peace in South America, which was perhaps the most 
important achievement of regional democracy. 
 
"Brazil and Argentina have enough resources to 
guarantee the stability of the region... Their 
presidents only need to put Latin American neo- 
populism under control. 
 
"... Mercosur is at a crossroads - it needs to be re- 
founded or buried. Uruguay is leaving it. Tabare 
Vazquez opened all doors to the US, even those of an 
FTA during his recent trip to Washington. Paraguay 
only expects an invitation to follow suit. 
 
"... Chavez has been and still is a disintegrating 
factor in the region. He divided the Andean Community 
of Nations, sowed intrigue in Mercosur, of which he is 
not a member, and now took Evo as his favorite 
student... 
 
"Washington was shocked at Evo's decision to 
nationalize. Both Washington and Madrid prefer to hold 
on to the hope that Lula and Kirchner will fulfill 
their old promises to contain Chavez and now Evo. 
 
"... Never have Washington and Madrid's eyes been so 
fixed on the Argentine president. He has his own 
domestic front. 
 
"... Kirchner is neither Chavez nor Evo, but the 
Argentine Government has already interfered in the 
private economy as he had never done during the last 
two decades." 
 
- "Brazil fears a regional 'cold war'" 
 
Luis Esnal, on special assignment in Brazil for daily- 
of-record "La Nacion," writes(05/08) "Marco Aurelio 
Garcia, advisor to President Lula on International 
Affairs, said 'We do not want a 'cold war' climate in 
Latin America.' During the interview, he warned there 
is a clear and concrete difference between the way 
Brazil perceives geopolitics and that of Presidents 
Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales. 
 
"'Brazil's foreign policy for South America and the 
rest of the world is not based on the 'anti' prefix. 
'We are not anti-anyone.' We are 'pro,' with respect 
to Chavez's anti-US rhetoric. 
 
"Brazil has differentiated its strategy from that of 
Chavez and even directly criticizing his style and 
measures. The growth of Chavez's influence in South 
America... has started to irritate Lula." 
 
- "South America's military balance is increasingly 
jeopardized" 
 
Leandro Uria, columnist of daily-of-record "La 
Nacion," comments (05/08) "While there have not been 
serious military conflicts in the region for the last 
two decades, South American countries, like Chile, 
Venezuela and Colombia, embarked on a career to 
overhaul their military equipment. If this race 
 
continues it could end up in an importance imbalance 
in the war capability of the region. 
 
"According to the Latin American Security and Defense 
Network, which gathers 250 military experts in the 
region, current military expenditures in Chile, 
Ecuador and Colombia are over 3% on their respective 
GDPs, while the regional average is of 1.4%." 
 
- "The US praises Argentina and Brazil's dealings with 
Bolivia" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading 
"Clarin," writes (05/08) "The US State Department has 
valued the rapid reaction of Brazil and Argentina vis- 
-vis Bolivian gas nationalization, and also their 
efforts to contain President Evo Morales. In fact, 
there is certain relief because it was not the US who 
had to intervene. 
 
"According to a US diplomat in Washington, 'This is 
good news.' The diplomat acknowledged, however, that 
there is fear that Venezuela and Cuba have more 
influence on Bolivia than Brazil and Argentina. This 
is a big concern for the White House. It considers 
that what is happening in Bolivia confirms Chavez's 
increasing influence on the region." 
 
- "The US offers itself as a partner without any 
ideology" 
 
Conservative "La Prensa" reports (05/06) "According to 
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, the US wants 
to be ' a partner for the creation of better 
opportunities' in Latin America regardless of the 
political affiliation of their governments. 
 
 
"According to Rice, free trade is the most viable tool 
for cooperation. 'The US will not set an ideological 
price for its support.' What matters to us is that the 
government has been democratically elected, that it 
rules in a democratic way and that it is fulfilling 
its duties to their people.'" 
 
- "Venezuela promotes regional crises" 
 
Rosendo Fraga, prestigious political columnist, writes 
in centrist Perfil newspaper (05/07) "Venezuelan 
President Hugo Chavez has unleashed the crisis in the 
Andean Community of Nations... 
 
"At the same time, Chavez deepened his conflict with 
Peru by slashing out at the Peruvian president and 
former president Alan Garcia. 
 
"It is clear that Chavez has chosen the moment to 
cause the crisis of the regional group in order to 
politically use and strengthen his regional 
leadership, now that Time magazine has included him as 
the only Latin American among the 100 most influential 
people in the world." 
 
- "Chavez' influence in Evo Morales' decrees" 
 
Business-financial "Ambito Financiero's" columnist 
Carlos Pagni writes (05/08) "The presence of 
Venezuelans in La Paz is surrounded by mystery. There 
is a blooming political order in Latin America based 
on two decisive factors -Hugo Chavez' regional 
activism, fueled by his attractive petrodollars, and 
the incipient energy crisis in Brazil and Argentina. 
 
"... When Morales' progress was perceived as 
inevitable, the US State Department attempted to have 
the Kirchner administration lead a friendly 
protectorate on La Paz, under the form of a technical 
cooperation agreement... Condoleezza Rice suggested 
this to Rafael Bielsa. The US Embassy in Buenos Aires 
even drafted a minimal energy program that could be 
the chore of said cooperation. All this in order to 
prevent YPFB from having Venezuelan engineers..., but 
history had some other ideas." 
 
- "Free trade - Uruguay is disappointed by US 
proposal" 
 
Carlos Burgueo, columnist of business-financial 
"Ambito Financiero," writes (05/08) "Uruguay is 
reported to be disappointed by the US proposal of an 
FTA received by Uruguayan President Tabare Vazquez 
during his meeting with US President George W. Bush. 
 
"This is the information the Argentine Government has 
on the meeting. However, when he was back from the US, 
the Uruguayan president said that he is willing to 
sign an FTA with the US while he pointed out that his 
country feels disregarded by Mercosur." 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "Regional ties ask for a more rational attitude" 
 
An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (05/07) "The 
Puerto Iguazu presidential summit has left some 
lessons regarding regional ties and the establishment 
of strategic goals of mutual interest. 
 
"A good example of a cautious handling of a conflict 
is that of Bolivian gas and oil nationalization. In 
spite of the malaise it caused, the Brazilian 
government decided to call for dialogue among 
interested parties to prevent an escalation of the 
conflict... Argentina got involved in this initiative 
and mediated between Bolivia and Brazil. 
 
"On the contrary, vis--vis the pulp mills problem, 
the Argentine Government adopted a confrontational 
style that cut down the possibilities of a 
negotiation. 
 
"... Furthermore, during his visit to Washington, 
President Tabare Vazquez told President Bush about the 
problem and therefore introduced the US into a 
bilateral or regional conflict with which the US has 
nothing to do. 
 
"The energy cost and the innumerable topics on the 
regional agenda require Latin American governments to 
implement realistic policies oriented to the best use 
of their resources without descending into aggressive 
stances among themselves, toward investors or third 
countries." 
 
- "Latin presence in the US" 
 
An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (05/08) "The US 
Latin community has just staged the greatest protest 
demonstrations since the demonstrations for civil 
rights. More than two million people staged 
demonstrations in favor of the immigrants' rights. 
 
 
"... The legislation that is being promoted by 
conservative sectors implies a toughened policy that 
could deepen existing inequality. The Hispanics' claim 
is as legitimate as the aspiration of obtaining 
acknowledgement of their status as citizens." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
GUTIERREZ