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DE RUEHAK #2416/01 1221414
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 021414Z MAY 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5234
INFO RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-5// PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC//USDP:PDUSDP/ISA:EUR/ISA:NESA/DSCA// PRIORITY
RUEHAK/USDAO ANKARA TU PRIORITY
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RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/425ABS IZMIR TU//CC// PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/39ABG INCIRLIK AB TU PRIORITY

UNCLAS ANKARA 002416 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO H/BARBARA FLECK 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OREP TU
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR MAY 7-8 VISIT OF CODEL PENCE TO 
TURKEY 
 
REF: STATE 66587 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Your visit follows a successful visit by 
Secretary Rice which paved the way for a new "strategic 
 
SIPDIS 
dialogue" with Turkey on issues of mutual import.  Turkey is 
a strong ally in the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), 
facilitating the distribution of critical supplies and fuel 
to the coalition in Iraq and supporting the NATO Training 
Mission (NTM-I) there; publicly calling on Iran to comply 
with its IAEA commitments; and pressuring Syria and Hamas to 
renounce their support for terrorism.  This summer Turkey 
will share command of ISAF-Central with France and Italy and 
open its first Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in 
Afghanistan.  But there are challenges.  Bilateral defense 
cooperation is on the decline.  An increased Turkish security 
presence along the Iraqi border to combat an up-tick in PKK 
terrorist activity has raised concerns with the Iraqi 
government and increased pressure for someone (US, Iraq, or 
Turkey) to take action.  Turkey's EU accession aspirations 
are frustrated by slow implementation of reforms and the lack 
of progress on Cyprus.  You may wish to welcome their 
partnership in GWOT and urge Turkey to stand firmly and 
publicly with the international community on Iran, especially 
as chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Larijani will also be 
visiting Ankara May 8.  END SUMMARY. 
 
STRATEGIC DIALOGUE 
------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) During an April 25 visit to Ankara, Secretary Rice 
unveiled with Foreign Minister Gul an agreement to formalize 
a regular series of meetings to further our bilateral efforts 
on issues such as Iraq, Iran, the Caucasus and Central Asia, 
among others.  As a majority Muslim country that straddles 
Europe and the Middle East, Turkey shares a history and 
culture with many countries of US concern and is poised to 
increase its constructive role in Iraq and Afghanistan, in 
the Broader Middle East and North Africa (BMENA) initiative 
and potentially in the Middle East Peace Process.  This will 
also provide a forum to dialogue with Turkey on issues of 
importance to its future, including Cyprus and the EU 
accession process. 
 
A PARTNER IN GWOT 
----------------- 
 
Iraq: 
 
¶3. (SBU) Turkey's agreement to allow the use of its territory 
as a logistical hub has been a crucial asset in our Iraq 
operations.  Two-thirds of gasoline and diesel fuel shipments 
(3 million gallons per day) for the Iraqi people and 25% of 
sustainment fuel for the coalition crosses into Iraq through 
the Ground Line of Communication at Habur Border Gate.  Since 
Turkey approved the use of Incirlik Air Base as a cargo hub 
to support coalition operations in Iraq in May 2005, over 152 
million pounds of equipment has been shipped to US troops. 
Six C-17 aircraft now deliver from Incirlik the amount of 
supplies it took 9-10 planes to deliver from Germany. 
Additionally ten KC-135 tanker aircraft based at Incirlik 
since 2003 have run 2800 refueling sorties, delivering 192 
million pounds of fuel in support of Operation Enduring 
Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom.  Turkey has four 
personnel assigned to NTM-I in Iraq and, under this rubric, 
has trained 57 Iraqi military officers in Turkey.  Iraqis 
have pledged to send officers to at least seven additional 
courses this year. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Turkey shares the US goal of a unified, democratic 
Iraq that is secure within it borders.  While Kurdish 
aspirations and the PKK presence in northern Iraq remain a 
significant concern, the government is contributing to 
efforts to ensure the success of the country as a whole.  The 
GOT vocally supported the participation of all ethnic and 
religious groups in the elections and the constitution 
referendum; and separately hosted a multi-party conference on 
the Iraqi constitution, a dialogue of hard-line Sunni leaders 
with US Ambassador Khalilzad, and a meeting of tribal leaders 
from the city of Talafar in an effort to calm the situation 
there.  It provided extensive training to over 300 Iraqi 
diplomats and political party members, and spearheaded a 
 
"neighbors meetings" process which has helped Iraqi 
government leaders interact with their regional counterparts. 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) In addition to Turkey's desire for political 
stability, a sovereign, stable Iraq is in Turkey's economic 
interests.  Bilateral trade in 2005 was $2.87 billion, of 
which $2.42B was Turkish exports to Iraq.  Turkey exports 270 
MW of electricity to northern Iraq.  Both countries aim to 
increase electricity exports from Turkey to 1000MW, which 
equates to 25% of Iraq's current peak capacity.  Turkey has 
pledged $50M in assistance to Iraq for energy, health and 
other projects, which remains mostly unfunded for security 
reasons.  Turkey's port of Ceyhan is the terminus of the oil 
pipeline from Kirkuk. 
 
Afghanistan: 
 
¶6. (SBU) Turkey has twice successfully led the International 
Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, most 
recently from February to August 2005.  Beginning in 
mid-2006, it will share joint command of ISAF-Central in 
Kabul for a two-year period, and will open its first PRT in 
the neighboring province of Wardak.  PM Erdogan visited 
Afghanistan in spring 2005 and subsequently increased 
Turkey's pledged assistance ten-fold to $100M.  This will be 
allocated in $16M increments for five years to build schools, 
hospitals, medical clinics and drinking water wells 
throughout the country.  Four hospitals have already been 
constructed.  The GOT provides counter-narcotics training in 
Turkey to Afghan security forces and will initiate such 
training in Afghanistan this year under the auspices of the 
Wardak PRT.  President Karzai demonstrated his gratitude for 
Turkey's assistance by participating in a March 
counter-terrorism conference at Turkey's NATO Center of 
Excellence for the Defense Against Terrorism. 
 
Other: 
 
¶7. (SBU) In addition to its efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, 
Turkey continues to contribute forces to the peacekeeping 
efforts in the Balkans and provides training to Georgian 
security forces, including for pipeline security.  Turkey has 
contributed $41M in equipment to Georgia over the past six 
years, and has trained some 1400 Georgian personnel.  In 
Azerbaijan, Turkey has provided some $150M in equipment and 
over $100M in training and facilities over the past six 
years. 
 
INCREASING PKK THREAT 
--------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Since ending its self-imposed cease-fire in May 
2004, the PKK terrorist group has stepped up bomb attacks in 
Istanbul and increasingly clashed with Turkish security 
forces in the country's southeast.  A PKK off-shoot, the 
Kurdish Freedom Hawks (TAK), has warned foreigners to stay 
away from Turkey and threatened additional attacks in tourist 
centers.  The funerals of 14 PKK terrorists killed in a March 
operation led to civil unrest in Diyarbakir and other 
southeastern cities, which in several cases turned violent. 
Televised news programs are filled with the funerals of 
Turkish security forces.  Tourism bookings are down from 
¶2005. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The PKK issue is the biggest irritant in bilateral 
relations.  The Turkish public and the GOT expect the US to 
take action against the PKK in Iraq.  The government welcomes 
our efforts with European allies to eliminate the PKK's 
financing sources and support networks in Europe and our 
intelligence-sharing program, but both the GOT and the public 
insist on US action against the PKK presence in northern 
Iraq.  While recognizing that the insurgency prevents 
coalition troops from engaging the PKK in Iraq, the GOT 
remains frustrated at its inability, and US unwillingness, to 
stop attacks it believes are emanating from the other side of 
its border. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Security forces have had some success against the 
PKK in Istanbul and Ankara, where significant caches of 
plastic explosives were found and suspects arrested.  The 
 
early up-tick in terrorist activity in 2006 also hastened the 
military's push to strengthen its troop presence along 
Turkey's border with Iraq, as it does every spring.  The 
Turkish press speculates that Turkey is either already 
conducting or will engage in cross-border operations into 
northern Iraq where the PKK has a presence.  The Chief of the 
Turkish General Staff GEN Hilmi Ozkok and FM Abdullah Gul 
have both publicly dismissed these reports and said that 
Turkey is doing nothing more than protecting its sovereign 
territory, as it does every year. 
 
REGIONAL DIPLOMACY 
------------------ 
 
¶11. (SBU) Given its shared historical, cultural and religious 
ties with countries in the region, as well as its geographic 
location bridging both east and west, Turkey feels both a 
right and a responsibility to engage countries of concern on 
issues of importance to the international community.  Turkey 
has worked hard in recent years to re-establish relations 
with Iran and Syria both to bolster its fight against the 
PKK, which has a presence in those countries, and to 
strengthen its economic ties.  It also believes that, as the 
only Muslim country that has good relations with both Israel 
and the Palestinians, it can play a special role in the peace 
process.  Despite Western disapproval, however, the FM, 
representing the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), 
welcomed a Hamas delegation to Ankara, and the PM and FM 
continue to engage the Iranian and Syrian governments.  In 
all cases, they assure us, they are sending the right 
messages in private. 
 
¶12. (SBU) The MFA, military and many in the AKP government 
view a nuclear Iran as a threat to Turkey but all view 
diplomacy as the only road to a solution and therefore insist 
on engagement.  The GOT is averse to broad economic sanctions 
that could disrupt a growing commercial relationship with 
Iran, particularly energy imports, but is willing to consult 
with us on targeted financial sanctions.  The government's 
public statements -- which we are told match their private 
statements -- on Iran's nuclear program have significantly 
strengthened since Iran resumed uranium enrichment.  You may 
want to welcome these statements and to encourage a continued 
strong message.  This will be particularly important as 
Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Larijani will be in Ankara 
while you are here. 
 
CYPRUS THREATENS TURKEY'S EU BID 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) The EU has expressed frustration with what it 
perceives as lackluster GOT efforts to fully implement 
democratic reforms.  Indictments against novelist Orhan Pamuk 
and other writers and intellectuals for statements 
purportedly undermining the Turkish identity, and unresolved 
issues with Turkey's Kurdish population which are 
exacerbating the PKK problem, give ammunition to those who 
want to prevent Turkey's accession.  But the lack of a 
settlement of the Cyprus question may be the biggest 
immediate threat to Turkey's EU bid.  Turkey remains bitter 
over the 2004 Greek Cypriot vote against UN secretary-general 
Annan's plan for a comprehensive settlement and the lack of 
measures to reward Turkish Cypriots for their favorable vote, 
and continues to look to the UN for the way forward.  Under 
its EU customs agreement, amended in 2005 to expand to 
include all new EU members -- including Cyprus, Turkey must 
open its sea and airports to Greek Cypriot vessels.  Turkey 
is unwilling to do so in absence of some opening of Turkish 
Cypriot ports and has put forward a proposal that would 
include this.  The lack of a deal could stall further EU 
negotiations. 
 
DEFENSE INDUSTRY COOPERATION DECLINING 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) Defense industry cooperation, once the strongest 
aspect of our military-to-military relationship, is in 
significant decline.  No US firm has won a direct commercial 
sale since Boeing was awarded a contract for an Airborne 
Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft in 2002.  In 2004, 
three tenders (UAVs, Main Battle Tanks, and attack 
 
helicopters) were canceled.  Two US firms, Boeing and Bell, 
were interested in a second attack helicopter tender, but 
declined to participate due to onerous liability and 
technology transfer requirements.  (Several non-US firms did 
submit bids.)  Sikorsky may choose not to participate in a 
tender for 54 utility helicopters for the Turkish Armed 
Forces and Forestry Service for the same reason, and Raytheon 
may bow out of contention for an aircraft trainer tender. 
Both in Ankara and in Washington, US firms and the USG have 
raised the technology transfer and liability concerns with 
Turkey's Ministry of Defense and Defense Industry 
Undersecretariat (SSM).  Despite both Turkish military and 
government insistence that it wants US competition in these 
tenders, SSM has resisted making the necessary changes to the 
tenders to ensure it. 
 
AGGRESSIVE COUNTER-NARCOTICS PROGRAM 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶15. (SBU) Turkey remains a significant transit country for 
Southwest Asian heroin destined for European markets. 
Turkish law enforcement vigorously pursues opiate traffickers 
and have made extensive opiate seizures.  Arrests resulting 
from large seizures are prosecuted and generally result in 
lengthy sentences.  Over eight metric tons of heroin were 
seized in Turkey in 2005, while nearly ten metric tons were 
seized in 2004.  Several of the world's largest verified 
opiate seizures have been made in Turkey in recent years, 
including 7.5 metric tons of morphine base that were captured 
in a single seizure in 2002.  In 2004, 4.4 metric tons of 
morphine base were seized and in 2005 there were two heroin 
seizures of over 1,000 kilograms each.  Turkish law 
enforcement is actively participating in DEA's Operation 
Containment, a regional plan for combating Afghan opiates. 
 
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/ 
 
WILSON