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PP RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVB #0446 0961404
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 061404Z APR 06 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5964
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000446 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE - ENGLISH, BELL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV HR
SUBJECT: EARLY LOCAL ELECTIONS OFFER NATIONAL PREVIEW 
 
REF: A. 05 ZAGREB 834 
 
     ¶B. 05 ZAGREB 827 
     ¶C. 05 ZAGREB 792 
 
¶1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT: The GoC has called early local 
elections for April 9 in two counties, the city of Velika 
Gorica and the small municipality of Nova Gradiska due to 
administrative irregularities following the 
regularly-scheduled polls in May 2005 (reftels).  What would 
normally be a relatively simple campaign has exploded with 
appearances by top officials from PM Sanader and his top 
cabinet ministers to the leaders of all major political 
parties.  This exaggerated electoral battle reveals political 
leaders' awareness that these local races will create the 
optics for the parliamentary race expected in November 2007 
and establish the relative importance and strength of each 
party in the public eye.  The four jurisdictions involved are 
geographically dispersed, so the results may indeed be 
representative of the whole country. 
 
¶2. Velika Gorica, on the southeastern outskirts of Zagreb, is 
especially attractive to the parties, and the race there 
features several nationally prominent politicians.  Rapid 
growth has made it the sixth largest city in Croatia, and 
proximity to the capital increases its importance as a city 
with tremendous economic potential.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
POLITICAL FRENZY TO PROVE PARTY STRENGTH 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. The northeastern county of Pozega-Slavonia and the 
southernmost county of Dubrovnik-Neretva, along with the 
centrally-located Velika Gorica and the western Slavonian 
Nova Gradiska will open the polls this Sunday to replace the 
city councils and county assemblies dissolved in early 
February.  Each suffered a political crisis when individual 
councilors (mainly from the Croatian Party of Rights - HSP) 
decided to leave the ranks of ruling majorities and thus 
threatened to topple the local governments in question.  In 
an attempt to preserve the status quo, those in local power 
challenged the right of these councilors to break ranks, 
invoking blanket resignations and excluding them from 
councils and assemblies.  Independent legal experts concluded 
that these practices were illegal, prompting the GoC to call 
new elections. 
 
¶4.  Top state and party officials are now actively 
campaigning in support of their respective candidates. 
Moreover, Finance Minister Ivan Suker is the official slate 
"bearer" (prime candidate) for the ruling Croatian Democratic 
Union (HDZ) in Velika Gorica.  Other candidates in the city 
include former foreign minister Tonino Picula (Social 
Democratic Party - SDP), and recently removed justice 
minister Vesna Skare-Ozbolt (Democratic Center - DC).  On 
April 7, five presidents of major Croatian parties -- PM 
Sanader of the HDZ, Ivica Racan of the SDP, Anto Djapic of 
the HSP, Josip Friscic of the Croatian Peasant Party (HSS) 
and Djurdja Adlesic of Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS) 
-- are all scheduled to campaign in Velika Gorica at the same 
time.  By then, each of them will also have visited the two 
counties where early elections are being held. 
 
FEW POLLS TO PREDICT RESULTS 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. While major parties are increasingly choosing to enter 
elections alone and seek coalition partners after the votes 
are counted in hopes of demonstrating their independent 
strength, these races feature various coalition combinations. 
 The HDZ is going it alone in Velika Gorica and 
Pozega-Slavonia County but is in coalition with one of its 
national partners, the HSLS, in Dubrovnik-Neretva County.  In 
Velika Gorica, however, the HSLS crossed over to the SDP, 
which has formed coalitions in all races. 
 
¶6. Despite the campaign circus, parties and the media have 
invested little in opinion polling for these particular 
elections. One exception is a late March poll which found 
that 47 percent of respondents in Velika Gorica would vote 
for the SDP/HNS/HSLS coalition, 23 percent would support the 
HDZ and 15 percent would vote for the DC.  This poll, which 
featured a healthy 37 percent of the electorate as undecided, 
predicts much closer results in the counties.  Despite recent 
national polls indicating support from more than 10 percent 
of voters, the far right HSP appears to be hovering around 
the five percent threshold in all races. 
FRANK