VZCZCXRO7380
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHIN #1461/01 1180129
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 280129Z APR 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9907
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5125
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0083
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1226
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RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 9272
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6328

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 001461 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: Kaohsiung Mayoral Election - Preliminary Report 
 
REF: A) 2005 TAIPEI 4353   B) 2005 TAIPEI 3856    C) 2005 TAIPEI 
 
3793   D) 2005 TAIPEI 4799 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  In the run-up to the DPP and KMT primaries,  DPP 
elected officials and supporters are urging DPP's Central Office to 
recruit Acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan as its candidate in the 
upcoming December Kaohsiung mayoral election.  Although former 
Council of Labor Affairs chairperson Chen Chu is likely to win an 
actual DPP primary, Yeh is deemed by pragmatists as a better 
candidate because she belongs to no DPP faction and remains 
untainted by the Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corporation (KRTC) scandal 
(reftels A, B, C).  The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) has announced 
its intention to nominate its own Secretary General and Kaohsiung 
City Legislator Lo Chi-ming to run in the mayoral election. Despite 
Lo's many public calls for the DPP to work with the TSU to jointly 
nominate a pan-green candidate to avoid splitting green votes, the 
DPP's factional splits and low morale among local supporters prevent 
that type of cooperation at this time.  Riding high on KMT Chairman 
Ma's reputation for party discipline and cleanliness, the ten KMT 
hopefuls for the mayoral nomination have pledged to respect the 
party's primary results and give full support to the party's 
candidate, who is likely to be former KMT Kaohsiung vice mayor Huang 
Chun-ying.  Huang's popularity, academic prestige and administrative 
experience as vice mayor, puts him out front as the KMT's best 
candidate to recapture to Kaohsiung City's mayoral seat. End 
Summary. 
 
DPP Tensions, Postponed Primaries and TSU Pleas 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  The DPP and the KMT have scheduled their primaries for 
Kaohsiung City Mayor to May 28 and May 27 respectively.  Both 
primaries will determine mayoral candidates by judging the results 
of party member voting (weighted at 30 percent) and public polls 
(weighted at 70 percent).  Results will be announced at the end of 
May or the beginning of June.  In order to ease tension among 
factions, the DPP postponed the required primary registration date 
from April 24 to May 1 to await former Premier Hsieh Chang-ting's 
April 29 return from the U.S.  Local DPP officials told AIT/K that 
Hsieh plays an important role in the DPP mayoral nomination due to 
his local influence as former Kaohsiung Mayor.  Hsieh's associates 
pointed out to AIT/K that central DPP authorities hope Hsieh's 
inevitable influence in candidate selection will place the potential 
loss of the yearend election squarely on Hsieh's shoulders. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Although TSU has nominated its own Secretary General and 
Kaohsiung elected Legislator Lo Chi-ming to run in the mayoral 
election, Lo repeatedly has called on the DPP to work together with 
TSU to jointly nominate a pan-green candidate in order to avoid 
 
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splitting green votes.  The DPP has never responded to Lo's pleas, 
although local DPP officials have made it clear to AIT/K that a 
split in votes between TSU and DPP could easily cost them the 
election in the current climate of low morale among DPP supporters. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Many other pan-green opinion leaders in Kaohsiung, 
including DPP Kaohsiung Chapter Chairman Chao Wen-nan and DPP 
Legislator Guan Bi-ling, have been urging the DPP Central Office to 
cancel the primary and recruit Yeh Chu-lan to run in the mayoral 
race, maintaining that Yeh is the only DPP candidate who can win the 
Kaohsiung mayoral election.  On April 25, nine Bureau Directors of 
Kaohsiung City Government joined together to attempt to convince 
Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan to run for mayor.  DPP Legislator Guan 
Bi-ling has pledged to withdraw her election bid if Yeh agrees to 
run.  Legislator Lo Chi-ming also urged DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun to 
consider recruiting Vice Premier Tsai Ing-wen to run for Kaohsiung 
Mayor since neither Yeh nor Tsai is associated with DPP factions or 
the KRTC scandal (reftels A, B, C). 
 
Who's Who in Possible DPP Candidates 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Incumbent Legislator Guan Bi-ling has been competing 
vigorously against the former Chairperson of Taiwan's Council of 
Labor Affairs Chen Chu for the DPP's candidacy.  As former Premier 
Hsieh Chang-ting's protg, a Guan Bi-ling candidacy is interpreted 
locally as a predictor that Hsieh is strong enough to make a run for 
the 2008 presidential election.  A Chen Chu candidacy, on the other 
hand, is seen as a predictor of the strength of current Premier Su 
Tseng-chang to capture the DPP's 2008 presidential candidacy.  The 
 
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fierce competition between the two has caused local DPP officials to 
worry that the primary itself will deeply split DPP supporters' 
 
TAIPEI 00001461  002 OF 004 
 
 
former solidarity. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In order to avoid a potential split caused by the primary, 
some local DPP officials and members have suggested the DPP Central 
Office recruit the Kaohsiung Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan to run because 
she has no affiliation with any DPP faction and her performance as 
Kaohsiung Acting Mayor has been widely-praised.  Yeh has declined 
the suggestion after a discussion with President Chen Shui-bian. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Former acting Kaohsiung mayor Chen Chi-mai reportedly has 
cancelled his election plan after his father, Chen Che-nan, was 
detained for fraud charges two weeks ago.  According to a former 
mayoral assistant, Chen Chi-mai is helping his father with the legal 
cases piling up against him and has no plans to run for any elected 
offices in the foreseeable future.  General Kaohsiung sentiment is 
that the Chen Che-nan corruption scandal has ruined his son's 
formerly bright political career by destroying public trust in the 
entire Chen family. 
 
Who's Who on the KMT Side 
------------------------- 
 
¶8. (U)  Encouraged by the KMT's strong Southern performance in the 
December "3 in 1 elections" (ref D) and by Acting Mayor Yeh 
Chu-lan's continued insistence she will not run, ten candidates have 
registered for the KMT primary.  They are: 
 
a. Chen Shei-saint - former Taipei City Legislator 
 
b. Chiu Yi - incumbent Kaohsiung City Legislator 
 
c. Huang Chao-shun - incumbent Legislator-at-large 
 
d. Huang Chun-ying - former Kaohsiung City Vice Mayor and KMT's 2002 
mayoral candidate 
 
e. Lai Feng-wei - former Penghu County Magistrate 
 
f. Huang Chi-chuan - former Kaohsiung City Council Speaker 
 
g. Lee Chuan-chiao -incumbent Tainan County Legislator 
 
h. Lee Fu-hsing - incumbent Legislator (Kaohsiung City elected) 
 
i. Lo Shih-hsiung - incumbent Kaohsiung City Legislator 
 
j. Su Ying-kuei - former Kaohsiung City Legislator 
 
¶9. (SBU) This is first time the KMT has had so many registered 
candidates in a Kaohsiung City mayoral race.  A Kaohsiung KMT party 
official told AIT/K this shows the KMT has a very good chance to win 
in the upcoming election and that the DPP is perceived already to be 
on the defensive.  Nevertheless, the KMT official admitted the main 
task to winning this election is achieving successful post-primary 
support by contenders for the selected KMT candidate.  One KMT 
candidate's assistant told AIT/K that despite the plethora of 
candidates, they have all promised not to attack each other during 
the primary.  To date, the local media has been devoid of any 
infighting among the KMT.  Interestingly, KMT party officials are 
worried that all the "harmony" that is keeping candidates out of the 
press will affect their  name recognition in Kaohsiung households 
and their popularity in comparative polls, thus skewing the primary 
and resulting in an inappropriate candidate. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Local political observers in Kaohsiung and Tainan have 
repeatedly urged AIT/K not to be fooled by claims of dominant 
pan-green support in Kaohsiung City.  They pointed out that although 
former Kaohsiung mayor Frank Hsieh's administration scored an 80 
percent approval rating in 2002, when the last mayoral election was 
held, Hsieh won his reelection by only 20,000 votes.  Although 
Kaohsiung City is sometimes labeled in the media as a Pan-green 
stronghold in southern Taiwan, the slim margin of Hsieh's win in 
2002, they argue, indicates  that the Pan-green Camp's strength in 
Kaohsiung City is weaker than described. 
 
What the Polls Say 
------------------ 
 
¶11.  (U) In a current United Daily News poll, the KMT Huang 
Chun-ying (KMT) has the highest support among all the interested 
candidates (DPP, KMT, and TSU), leading DPP's Chen Chu and Yeh 
Chu-lan by 14 percent. For pan-green supporters, Chen Chu (DPP) 
leads among the DPP's candidates with Yeh Chu-lan following as a 
 
TAIPEI 00001461  003 OF 004 
 
 
close second.  Among pan-blue supporters, Huang Chun-ying leads by 
18 percent, Huang Chao-shun is second with 13 percent support and 
Chiu Yi comes in third with 12 percent.  The remaining potential KMT 
candidates registered levels of support ranging from 9 percent to 
below 5 percent. 
 
¶12. (SBU) According to a China Times poll dated April 14, former 
deputy mayor Huang Chun-ying was identified by pan-blue supporters 
as the most ideal mayoral candidate, followed by Legislator Huang 
Chao-shun (8 percent), former legislator Chen Shei-Saint (8 percent) 
and Chiu Yi (7 percent).  Former CLA chairperson Chen Chu was judged 
by pan-green supporters as the DPP's most ideal mayoral candidate, 
followed by former acting mayor Chen Chi-mai (12 percent), 
Legislator Guan Bi-ling (11 percent) and TSU Legislator Lo Chi-ming 
(4 percent).  The same polling also indicated that Chen Chu leads 
all candidates regardless of party in terms of popularity.  She 
received 11 percent support of all those polled, followed by Huang 
Chun-ying, (9 percent) and Chen Chi-mai (6 percent).  This poll did 
not include Yeh Chu-lan.  The poll was conducted on April 12 with 
829 respondents.  The margin of error is 3.5 percent. 
 
Former Mayoral Assistant Weighs In on the Turmoil 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶13. (SBU) AIT/K recently discussed the upcoming December Kaohsiung 
mayoral elections with Zhan Yuan-xiang, a 2005 AIT/K International 
Visitor grantee.  Zhan previously served as an investigative 
reporter for Next Magazine before working as special assistant to 
former Kaohsiung acting mayor Chen Chi-mai.  Zhan currently works as 
the media liaison for Kaohsiung County Council and serves as a 
consultant for Attorney Lien Li-chien, who is seeking the DPP 
nomination for Kaohsiung City Council. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Zhan predicted to AIT/K that the DPP would lose the 
Kaohsiung mayoral election if it ran former CLA Chairperson Chen Chu 
as its candidate.  According to Zhan, local labor unions and social 
groups do not support Chen Chu even though she once served as a 
director of the city's social affairs bureau and labor affairs 
bureau several years ago.  Zhan noted that no union or social group 
leaders will support her election bid because of their displeasure 
with the government policy on the importation of foreign laborers 
that was put into place during her tenure as the Council of Labor 
Affairs chairperson. 
 
¶15. (SBU) Zhan also indicated that Chen Chu, who is a New Tide 
Faction member, is not supported by other DPP factions.  Zhan 
pointed out that since the DPP is built on a coalition of factions, 
factional interest trumps overall party interests.  According to 
Zhan, DPP factions in Kaohsiung are controlled by former premier 
Frank Hsieh and former deputy presidential office secretary-general 
Chen Che-nan.  Zhan noted that since both were forced to resign from 
their positions because of the KRTC scandal, they might ask their 
faction members and supporters to stay home on election day if Chen 
Chu becomes the DPP candidate.  Chen Chu has been blamed for 
triggering the entire KRTC scandal by hinting during a TV interview 
that Chen Che-nan was the key figure in brokering the importation of 
Thai laborers.  The KRTC scandal is viewed as the opening of a 
Pandora's box, which unveiled a series of DPP corruption scandals 
that led to the DPP's poor showing in the December "3-in-1" 
elections. 
 
¶16. (SBU) Zhan noted that given Chen Chu's prestigious status in the 
DPP, Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan will never consider running in the 
primary.  Like others, Zhan sees that the only possibility for Yeh 
to take the DPP mayoral candidacy is through recruitment, which will 
require a great deal of negotiation among factions and the 
abandonment of party's primary process.  Zhan predicted that Chen 
Chu will win the DPP primary, if there is one.  Local DPP members 
and supporters, as well as party officials, have expressed concern 
that Chen Chu's role in the KRTC scandal will make her an easy 
target for KMT attacks.  KMT officials were not reluctant to state 
that they will attack DPP corruption relentlessly in this mayoral 
campaign.  When learning that President Chen Shui-bian may pick Chen 
Chu as the DPP Kaohsiung mayoral candidate in an attempt to balance 
power among DPP factions, Zhan told AIT/K that many local elected 
officials said President Chen is making a big mistake. 
 
¶17. (SBU) Zhan predicted that former vice mayor Huang Chun-ying will 
be nominated as the KMT mayoral candidate because of his popularity, 
academic prestige and four year administrative experience as vice 
mayor.  Zhan said that Huang is well-respected and a perfect 
candidate for the KMT to restore itself to the mayoral seat in 
Kaohsiung. 
 
TAIPEI 00001461  004 OF 004 
 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶18.  (SBU) The ongoing factional splits and low morale of DPP 
supporters has led to a crisis, which poses a major obstacle to the 
DPP's ability to defend what it has touted as its biggest stronghold 
in southern Taiwan.  The DPP administration, plagued by 
Kaohsiung-specific corruption scandals, is nervous about its 
prospects in the Kaohsiung mayoral race.  The DPP fears that the 
election will become another media free-for-all that will cost it 
not only the mayoral seat, but also bolster predictions that it will 
lose to the KMT in the 2008 presidential election if it loses the 
Kaohsiung mayoral election. 
 
 
THIELE 
 
YOUNG