VZCZCXRO3618
RR RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMRE RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSK #0463/01 1181135
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 281135Z APR 06 ZDK ALL TO NUM SVCS
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4321
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1126
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 MINSK 000463 
 
SIPDIS 
 
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI ECON BO
SUBJECT: Post-Election Polling: Lukashenko Wins, but Not by As Much 
 
Ref: Minsk 285 
 
MINSK 00000463  001.2 OF 007 
 
 
¶1. Summary: The IISEPS polling service recently unveiled the 
results of the first post-election poll.  IISEPS found that about 
64% of the electorate voted for Lukashenko, 20% less than the 
regime claims.  Despite this discrepancy, a slim majority of 
Belarusians view the elections as free and fair.  Despite official 
repression, mass arrests and ceaseless regime propaganda, the 
opposition campaigns reached up to a quarter of voters, although 
most had decided for whom to vote long before the elecdion.  Most 
Belarusians do not believe the worst elements of state propaganda, 
even though over 50% of Belarusians c/nsider themselves to be 
Soviet, rather than EUropean, people.  Most Belarusians have heard 
of the post-election demonstrations, even if most do not approve of 
the protests and very few would be willing to participate 
themselves.  A large majkrity of Belarusians continue to rely on 
state media for information, although growing numbers use the 
internet and watch EuroNews or satellite talevision.  Very few have 
ever listened to radio transmitted from abroad.  End summary. 
 
¶2. Kn April 21, Oleg Manaev, head of the de-registered IISEPS 
sociological research center, presefted the results ofpost- 
election polling to Ambassador.  IISEPS conducted this polling 
between 27 March and 6 April, polling 1,496 respondents across the 
country.  Manaev said the polling has a margin of error of three 
percent. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Election Results: Lukashenko Wins, but by Less 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶3. IISEPS asked several questions to gauge the percentage of voters 
who supported Lukashenko.  Each question found that around 63% 
voted for Lukashenko, some7hat less phan the officially annoqnced 
83%.  Manaev stated that the results of this poll, particularly 
regarding Lukashenko's support, vary little from IISEPS last poll, 
cknducted in FebruarY (reftel).  At that time 58.6% said they would 
vote for Lukashenko and 16.5% for Milinkevich.  The Febrqary poll 
was conducted just before it became legal for campaign teams to 
start meeting vOters and passing out literature, demonstrating that 
the campaigns themselves had little influence on how Belarusians 
voted. 
 
Who did you vote for in the March 19 presidential election? 
 
Lukashenko                 63.6% 
Milinkevich                20.6 
Kozulin                     4.8 
Gaidukevich                 2.1 
Against all                 3.4 
Do not walt to answer      5.4 
 
 
If tomorrow there wera new presidential elections, for whom would 
You vote? (write in answEr) 
 
Lukashenko       Q0.3% 
Milinkevich     18.4 
Kozulin           3.7 
Gaidukevich       1.0 
Shushkevich       0.6 
6 others each received less than 0.5% 
 
 
Lukashenko again became President.  Was that what you personally 
wanted? 
 
Yes                  59.8% 
No                   33.4 
 
 
Did the candidate for whom you voted become President? 
 
Yes      61.4% 
No       30.5 
 
 
Do you trust the President of Belarus? 
 
Yes   59.9% 
No    31.2 
 
 
---------------------------- 
Elections Were Free and Fair 
-------,------------------- 
 
MINSK 00000463  002.3 OF 007 
 
 
 
¶4. A majority of Belarusians believes the March 19 presidential 
election was held in a free and fair manner, although roughly 30% 
consistently stated that their was falsification.  Far more 
attributed falsification to Lukashenko's campaign than to that of 
the other candidates. 
 
Do you think the March 19, 2006 presidential elections were free 
and fair? 
 
Yes      57.9% 
No       32.9 
 
 
Do you think that election results announced by the Central 
Election Committee were actual or falsified results? 
 
Without a doubt actual       38.1% 
More or less actual          25.6 
More or less falsified       14.1 
Without a doubt falsified    14.9 
 
 
The Committee of Youth Organizations and the EKOOM polling center 
conducted an election survey at the entrances of polling stations 
(exit polls).  Their results practically coincided with the 
official election results.  Do you trust the results of this exit 
poll? 
 
Yes, because they gave citizens objective information about 
the voting process and results                               45.6% 
 
No, because they knowingly presented distorted information 
in the interests of those who paid for their research        29.9 
 
 
Did you experience any pressure forcing you to vote for a 
particular candidate? 
 
Yes    14.0% 
No     81.9 
 
 
If you participated in the elections, did you vote early (14-18 
March) or on Sunday March 19? 
 
Voted early              25.7% 
Voted on Election Day    65.8 
 
 
In your opinion, did all candidates have equal conditions during 
the course of elections? 
 
Yes      48.3% 
No       43.1 
 
 
If you noticed any violations, then on behalf of whom, in your 
opinion, were these violations committed? 
 
Lukashenko                 37.1% 
Milinkevich                 6.3 
Kozulin                     3.8 
Gaidukevich                 1.4 
For all candidates          2.4 
No violations noticed      31.7 
 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Opposition Campaign Reached Some Voters 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. Most respondents replied that their main sources of information 
are those controlled by the government, television, newspapers and 
radio.  Word-of-mouth also served as an important means of 
spreading information, and opposition candidates reached one-fifth 
of voters with their campaign materials (Lukashenko's team did not 
distribute any flyers).  This can be considered a success given the 
short amount of time the opposition had to campaign and the series 
repression and mass arrests they suffered from.  Manaev pointed out 
that most respondents claimed they decided who to vote for well in 
advance of the election, but nearly one-third did not decide until 
the last week - meaning they were open to influence by the 
campaigns. 
 
From what sources did you receive information on candidates and 
their programs? 
 
MINSK 00000463  003.3 OF 007 
 
 
 
Television                                            69.6% 
Newspapers                                            49.7 
Colleagues, acquaintances and neighbors               32.1 
Radio                                                 24.0 
Various printed materials left in mail box            22.6 
Campaign flyers and posters                           21.1 
Meetings with candidates and their proxies             6.4 
Bosses                                                 5.5 
No information received                                5.1 
 
 
Whose informational material did you receive? Whose representatives 
did you meet with? 
 
Milinkevich       25.6% 
Kozulin           14.2 
Lukashenko         9.9 
Gaidukevich        3.6 
 
 
Did you see the presidential candidates' speeches on TV? 
 
Yes, the February 22 speeches                11.3% 
Yes, the March 2 speeches                    15.3 
Yes, both the February and March speeches    36.3 
No, did not watch any of them                37.1 
 
 
Which of the speeches gave you the biggest impression? 
 
Milinkevich's speech     15.8% 
Kozulin's speech         13.7 
Gaidukevich's speech      2.2 
No impression            35.9 
[Note: Lukashenko did not make an official campaign speech, but did 
dominate most news broadcasts.] 
 
 
Did these speeches influence your decision on who to vote for? 
 
Did not influence       35.9% 
Influenced to a degree  18.8 
Greatly influenced       9.3 
 
 
Did you have enough information on candidates for president in 
order to make a sure choice? 
 
Yes      71.6% 
No       27.4 
 
 
When did you decide who you would vote for? 
 
Long before the elections            68.3% 
On the eve of elections (5-6 days)   23.6 
On Election Day                       8.0 
 
 
What two questions are more important to you when deciding who to 
vote for? (Only two choices allowed) 
 
General quality of life                   43.9% 
Democracy and an independent Belarus      21.5 
Places of work                            19.9 
Price growth                              19.2 
Improving health care                     18.2 
Payment of pensions                       16.3 
Demands of freedom in Belarus              9.0 
Corruption in society                      8.6 
Relations with Russia                      7.4 
Education                                  7.4 
Relations with the West                    6.2 
Threat of terrorism                        5.9 
Crime                                      5.2 
Freedom of religion                        0.9 
 
 
------------------------------- 
Public Acceptance of Propaganda 
------------------------------- 
 
¶6. Most respondents, despite their support and vote for Lukashenko, 
do not accept some of the regime's propaganda.  Most did not 
believe the head of the BKGB's pre-election statements that the 
opposition was planning a coup and that peaceful demonstrations are 
 
MINSK 00000463  004.3 OF 007 
 
 
terrorism.  Most also view the arrests of opposition activists as 
being politically motivated. 
 
Recently many people have said that external forces are trying to 
create a "colored revolution" in Belarus.  In your opinion, do such 
claims conform to reality or not? 
 
Yes, Absolutely True    22.1% 
More or Less True       32.8 
More or Less Not True   22.3 
No, Absolutely False    11.1 
 
 
On March 16 the head of the BKGB, Sergey Sukharenko, publicly 
announced that some were "planning a violent takeover of power 
under the pretext of presidential elections."  Do you agree with 
this announcement? 
 
Yes    30.9% 
No     49.1 
 
 
Sukharenko also announced that to actively participate in 
demonstrations protesting presidential election results would be 
viewed as terrorism.  Do you agree that mass protests are acts of 
terrorism? 
 
Yes    26.8% 
No     58.1 
 
 
Before the elections, several representatives of democratic forces, 
who openly express their disagreement with the current political 
system, were arrested for preparing terrorist acts.  Do you think 
their arrests were politically motivated or do you think they were 
arrested based on real facts that they were preparing terrorist 
acts? 
 
Their arrests were politically motivated     57.0% 
Their arrests were based on real evidence    26.3 
 
 
At the All Belarusian People's Assembly held in the beginning of 
March in Minsk, Lukashenko said that the country's political and 
economical course of development was correct and would not be 
changed in the next five years.  Do you agree with his statement? 
 
Yes    54.2% 
No     36.4 
 
 
---------------------------- 
Protests of Election Results 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7. A majority of Belarusians have heard of the post-election 
demonstrations, but a slim majority side with Lukashenko in 
opposing western and opposition calls for new elections and believe 
that Lukashenko's victory will unite Belarus.  However, only a 
small minority said they would take part in demonstrations 
themselves. 
 
Did you know that beginning on March 19 on October Square in Minsk 
occurred a protest against the falsified election results, 
involving thousands of people who demanded freedom in the country 
and a second vote? 
 
Yes      69.4% 
No       26.9 
 
 
What do you think of this act of protest? 
 
Accept it            20.4% 
Do not accept it     45.9 
 
 
The U.S., EU, European Parliament, European Commission and other 
influential international structures did not accept the 
presidential election results in Belarus because they "did not meet 
OSCE standards."  These organizations supported the opposition's 
demands on holding a second vote.  Some consider this decision 
fair, but others do not.  What do you think? 
 
Fair decision        27.3% 
Unfair decision      54.2 
 
 
MINSK 00000463  005 OF 007 
 
 
 
Lukashenko's victory at the elections, in your opinion, further 
united Belarusian society or deepened the division? 
 
Further united society     55.9% 
Deepened the division      27.1 
 
 
How do you view participation in public actions to express your 
opinions? 
 
                          Took Part   Ready to   Would not 
                                      Take Part  Take Part 
Meetings, demonstrations    5.8%        10.9%      78.1% 
Strikes                     1.1         10.0       82.7 
Hunger strikes              0.3          4.7       89.2 
Armed resistance            0.6          4.5       88.0 
 
 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Socio-Economic Background of the Elections 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶8. IISEPS found that a majority of respondents are pleased with the 
direction their country is taking, although a significant minority 
indicated otherwise, believe it is hard for youth to find a decent 
job, and would emigrate if given the chance. 
 
How has your life and that of your family changed since 2001? 
 
Changed for the better   38.9% 
Did not change           44.0 
Changed for the worse    15.5 
 
 
In your view, in general is our country developing in the correct 
or incorrect direction? 
 
Correct direction    59.5% 
Incorrect direction  30.7 
 
 
Can youth today have a successful career in Belarus? 
 
Yes           54.4% 
No            30.1 
Don't know    15.5 
 
 
Would you want to emigrate to another country? 
 
No               61.6% 
To the U.S.       9.1 
To Germany        7.6 
To Russia         3.9 
To Poland         2.5 
To the Baltics    1.0 
(in total 30.8% of respondents expressed the desire to emigrate) 
 
 
In general, are people in Belarus fully free, partially free, not 
very free or fully not free? 
 
Fully free        27.5% 
Partially free    32.2 
Not fully free    21.5 
Fully not free    16.2 
 
 
In the past three years have government authorities offended you? 
 
No             60.4% 
Many times      8.9 
A few times    18.7 
Once            8.9 
(36.5% of respondents reported being offended at least once by a 
government official) 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Belarusians Identify More with the USSR than the EU 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶9. Manaev said he was surprised at the results of the question 
regarding whether people view themselves as more Soviet or 
European, although he admitted that he could not define what it 
 
MINSK 00000463  006.4 OF 007 
 
 
meant to be Soviet.  Over 2003 and 2004, the EU was gaining in 
popularity compared to union with Russia, and in some polls proved 
more popular.  The results in this poll compare to those from 
February, but show the EU has dropped in popularity, likely as a 
result of the regime's constant propaganda against the EU and the 
West. 
 
Do you consider yourself more of a Soviet or a European? 
 
Soviet      52.0% 
European    36.0 
 
 
If there were to be a referendum on accepting the Constitution on 
the Belarusian and Russian Union, how would you vote? 
 
For Constitution        48.2% 
Against Constitution    28.3 
Would Not Vote          10.4 
 
 
If there was a referendum tomorrow on Belarus' accession to the EU, 
how would you vote? 
 
For EU Accession        34.2% 
Against Accession       44.7 
Would Not Vote          10.2 
 
 
If you had to choose between a union with Russia or entry to the 
EU, which would you choose? 
 
Union with Russia       56.1% 
Entry to EU             31.9 
 
 
If a presidential post was created for Belarus and Russia, who 
would you vote for that position? 
 
Lukashenko              44.4% 
Putin                   22.0 
Milinkevich              1.5 
Zhirinovski              1.3 
Another Politician       2.3 
 
 
------------------------------------------- 
International Relations Following Elections 
------------------------------------------- 
 
In your opinion, how is Lukashenko's reelection influencing 
Belarus' relationship with the West? 
 
Improving relationship with the West       16.4% 
Worsening relationship with the West       45.7 
Relationship not affected                  29.8 
 
In your opinion, how is Lukashenko's reelection influencing 
Belarus' relationship with Russia? 
 
Improving relationship with Russia         45.2% 
Worsening relationship with Russia         13.5 
Relationship not affected                  37.3 
 
 
------------------ 
Information Access 
------------------ 
 
¶10. Most Belarusians continue to receive their news from state 
television and newspapers, but alternatives are growing in 
importance.  A sizeable number watch EuroNews, have a DVD player or 
VCR (Milinkevich's team passed out DVDs and CD-ROM campaign movies 
before the election), and more say they use the inernet with every 
poll.  However, attempts to reach Belarusians with radio from 
abroad has so far had only marginal success, with no foreign 
station attracting for than 4% of listeners (in a poll with a 3% 
margin of error). 
 
What TV channels do you watch? 
 
Channels                       Watch    Do Not Watch    No Answer 
--------                       -----    ------------    --------- 
 
Belarusian TV (BT, ONT, CTV)    88.9%        9.8%          1.3% 
Russian TV (ORT, RTR, NTV)      79.3        18.9           1.8 
Local TV                        39.7        55.5           4.8 
 
MINSK 00000463  007.3 OF 007 
 
 
Cable TV                        33.3        61.5           5.2 
EuroNews (Russian Version)      19.5        75.3           5.2 
Satellite TV                    14.9        79.2           5.9 
Polish TV                       10.1        83.6           6.3 
Weekly RTVI broadcasts           5.7        87.4           6.9 
 
 
Not long ago the EU began radio broadcasts to Belarus (in Russian 
and Belarusian).  Do you listen to these broadcasts? 
 
Radio Stations                Listen    Do Not Listen    No Answer 
--------------                ------    -------------    --------- 
 
European Radio for Belarus 
(Warsaw)                        3.7%         94.7%          1.6% 
Belarusian Chronicles Radio, 
German Wave (Bonn)              2.4          96.4           1.2 
Belarusian Radio Polonia 
(Warsaw)                        3.1          95.3           1.6 
Radio Ratsi (Belyastok)         1.9          96.5           1.6 
Radio Baltiski Khvaliya 
(Vilnius)                       1.0          97.1           1.9 
 
 
What periodical publication do you read more than the rest? (More 
than one answer) 
 
Sovetskaya Belarus       20.5% 
Local paper              22.6 
Komsomolskaya Pravda     16.4 
Argument and Fact         7.0 
Respublika                5.1 
Narodnaya Volya           3.0 
Antenna                   1.8 
 
 
Do you have a VCR or DVD player to watch films? 
 
DVD player    10.6% 
VCR           30.1 
Both          16.5 
Neither       41.8 
 
 
Do you use the internet? 
 
Yes, everyday                    4.7% 
Yes, several times per week      8.8 
Yes, several times per month     7.7 
Yes, several times per year      3.8 
No                              70.1 
Do not know what is internet     3.9 
 
 
What language do you use in everyday life? 
 
Belarusian      3.5% 
Russian        61.0 
Both           12.9 
Mixed usage    21.5 
 
 
KROL