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O 071857Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9651
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3227
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RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR QUITO 0223
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0397
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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS LIMA 001346 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: CAMPAIGNS HOLD FINAL RALLIES; NOW IT IS UP TO THE VOTERS
 
REF: A. LIMA 1277 B. LIMA 1199
 
---------- 
SUMMARY 
---------- 
 
¶1.  (U)  Presidential hopefuls ended their campaigns with a 
flourish, holding massive closing rallies on 4/6, the final 
day for campaigning before the 4/9 general elections.  Two of 
the three leading candidates, Unidad Nacional's Lourdes 
Flores and APRA's Alan Garcia, addressed their supporters in 
Lima, while ultra-nationalist "outsider" Union por el Peru's 
(UPP) Ollanta Humala stayed true to his southern power base 
by staging his extravaganza in Arequipa.  The final two weeks 
of the campaign saw the mud start to fly, albeit in moderate 
quantities, with most of the dirt aimed at Humala.  Two 
"private" polls leaked to international news organizatins 
had contradictory results, raising uncertainty over the 
electorate's volatility as it heads for the ballot boxes. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------- 
LOURDES FLORES 
-------------- 
 
¶2.  (U)  Flores' raly attracted what the National Police 
estimated as 19,000 followers to the Campo de Marte park just 
off central Lima.  Her speech concentrated on the positive 
message that her campaign focused on for the last two weeks: 
that Unidad Nacional stands for a change with "serenity," 
offering a "certain path and a sure destination," vowing to 
combat the marginalization of a large part of the population, 
provide honest and efficient government, and promote growth 
through enhancement of opportunities for small businesses. 
Flores also took swipes at her principle opponents, warning 
voters not to "hand over the country to adventurers and 
improvisers" (an allusion to Humala), nor "to repeat the old 
political, economic and social failures that only brought 
more hunger and desperation and fewer illusions" (a reference 
to Garcia's disastrous 1985-90 Government). 
 
----------- 
ALAN GARCIA 
----------- 
 
¶3.  (U)  Garcia's rally attracted what the National Police 
estimated as 15,000 supporters to the Naval Heroes Plaza that 
fronts the Sheraton Hotel and Palace of Justice in downtown 
Lima.  He sought to position APRA as the principle political 
force representing the center, between "the right wing of the 
great capitalists, although it is dressing itself up 
differently and assuming phrases at the last minute" (Flores) 
and "a mendacious agitator and demagogue who recently, at age 
45, discovered nationalism" (Humala).  He also sought to 
reassure non-Apristas that his government would be an 
inclusive one, open to working with other parties and 
staffing the bureaucracy with qualified technocrats.  At 
previous stops in Puno, Tumbes and Trujillo during the last 
week of campaigning, Garcia delivered much the same message, 
but added local riffs.  In Trujillo, an APRA stronghold, he 
paid homage to the party's martyrs.  In Puno and Tumbes he 
promised to create free trade zones and expand agricultural 
credits. 
 
-------------- 
OLLANTA HUMALA 
-------------- 
 
¶4.  (U)  Humala closed out his campaign in the central plaza 
in Arequipa before a crowd estimated by the National Police 
at 4,500.  The day before he held a rally at the Naval Heroes 
Plaza in Lima, drawing an audience similar to Garcia's.  The 
UPP candidate was clearly on the defensive, dedicating a 
major portion of his speech to address the numerous questions 
and accusations raised against him and his followers over the 
past two weeks, damning his accusers and claiming that the 
mass media is engaged in an anti-Humala campaign on behalf of 
the traditional parties and great business interests. 
 
¶5. (U) Humala, his family and his entourage were the main focus of attention over the past two weeks of the campaign, with his political opponents and the media making hay over:
 
--  UPP spokesman Daniel Abugattas calling First Lady Eliane 
Karp a "daughter of a whore," and accusing her of intervening 
with the Israeli Embassy to prevent Peruvians of Palestinian 
descent (Abugattas is one) from traveling to the West Bank 
and Gaza.  Humala removed Abugattas as his spokesman, but 
rejected calls to kick him off the UPP's congressional list 
for Lima. 
 
--  Television commentator, renowned novelist, and 
self-professed bi-sexual Jaime Bayly's claim that when one of 
his staff asked Humala's father Isaac to appear on his TV 
program, the latter responded, "Tell that faggot that we are 
not going to go on his program and that when we are in the 
government we will have him shot."  This followed on Humala's 
mother's comments in March that homosexuals should be 
executed (Ref B). 
 
--  Humala's claims that electoral authorities are conspiring 
to commit fraud to prevent his election, pointing to the 
latters' failure to provide a mechanism that would enable 
on-duty military and police personnel to vote, and his threat 
to have his supporters take to the street if this occurs. 
Election authorities and OAS Observer Mission head Lloyd 
Axworthy responded by dismissing the possibility of fraud. 
Axworthy also minimized the importance of the affected 
personnel not being able to cast ballots, noting that they 
represent less than one percent of the national vote, and 
that their dedication to security duties will enable the rest 
of the Peruvian population to vote in safety. 
 
--  Media reports published on 3/31 that at least three 
retired military officers serving important functions in 
Humala's campaign (Colonels Adrian Villafuerte, Estuardo 
Loyola, and Luis Pinto) served in positions of confidence for 
generals linked closely to imprisoned former National 
Security Advisor Vladimiro Montesinos. 
 
--  Humala's Second Vice President running mate Carlos Torres 
having lunch on 4/2 with TV magnate (Channel 5) Genaro 
Delgado Parker only a few hours after Humala vowed that 
"shameless" media owners who owe the government millions of 
dollars (Delgado Parker reportedly has debts to the GOP of 
some USD 10 million) will be called on to pay up under his 
administration.  Humala claimed that Torres met with Delgado 
Parker without his knowledge, and subsequently issued 
instructions that UPP candidates and officials may not/not 
meet with media owners or business tycoons without his prior 
approval. 
 
--  Humala's interview with Argentine daily "Pagina 12," 
which the Lima media picked up on 4/5, that if Lourdes Flores 
wins, "What would happen is what happened to presidents of 
other Latin American countries who were removed by the 
people.  I think that it will be very difficult for Lourdes 
Flores to manage to complete one year of government." 
Flores, Garcia and media commentators leapt on this quote as 
signifying that Humala was prepared employ non-democratic 
means to obtain power should he be defeated at the ballot 
box.  His critics generally ignored his qualification later 
in the interview that any candidate "who represents 
continuity" would last a year in office if they did not 
address social demands. 
 
--  Humala's involvement in criminal investigations.  He has 
been summoned to testify on 4/24 in the criminal trial of his 
brother Antauro for the latter's leadership of the 1/1/05 
Andahuaylas uprising.  In addition, Tocache prosecutor Arturo 
Campos has said he intends to call Humala to testify in 
mid-April in connection with the allegations that he 
committed human rights violations when commanding an Army 
base in the Huallaga Valley in 1992. 
 
--  Humala's admission that he was planning to visit a 
factory belonging to Samuel and Mendel Winter, two media 
owners who were convicted and sentenced to jail terms for 
accepting bribes from Montesinos, and whose parole status is 
being reviewed by a criminal court over their failure to pay 
a multi-million dollar fine.
 
--  News that Salomon Lerner Ghitis, Humala's liaison to the 
business community, recently met with the newly appointed 
Chilean Ambassador to Peru, Christian Barros, in Santiago 
raised speculation as to possible dealings between the 
ultra-nationalist Humala and the country's southern neighbor. 
 Humala dismissed the importance of these reports, stating 
that Lerner's trip and meetings were related to the latter's 
business and had nothing to do with the UPP campaign. 
 
--  Allegations that first surfaced on 4/5, charging that 
retired Major Italo Ponce, a senior Humala campaign advisor, 
visited imprisoned Montesinos crony Oscar Lopez Meneses in 
jail to negotiate the conformation of UPP's congressional 
list.  The weekly "Caretas" published an expose on 4/7, in 
which a witness, businessman Augusto Vega, claimed to have 
participated in these discussions.  Vega had been involved in 
the UPP campaign until January of this year when he left, he 
says, because of the Montesinos connection (NOTE:  We have 
also heard that Vega broke with Humala after being passed 
over as a congressional candidate.  END NOTE). 
 
--  A 4/6 report by the news magazine "La Ventana Indiscreta" 
in which retired National Police Colonel Cesar Mojorovich, 
who was in charge of the local police station when Humala 
staged his 10/27/2000 "uprising" in Locumba, claimed that 
Humala's action was a sham designed to distract the 
government's and public's attention from Montesinos, who 
chose that same day to make his escape from Peru on a boat. 
Mojorovich's account does not/not appear to add anything new 
to these allegations, which have been aired ever since 
Humala's "uprising" took place, but it does have the effect 
of bringing this issue to the fore again at a critical moment 
of the campaign.  Perhaps not coincidentally, Mojorovich is 
being accompanied by leading members of the Independent 
Moralizing Front (FIM) party, which has been an outspoken 
critic of Humala. 
 
----------------- 
THE PRIVATE POLLS 
----------------- 
 
¶6.  (U)  The Organic Election Law prohibits the public 
diffusion of poll results for a week before the election. 
This prevents the local media from publishing polls during 
this period, but it does not/not prevent the polling 
organizations or their private clients from leaking the 
results to the international press so that the news gets back 
to a Peruvian audience.  Such has occurred with respect to 
two polls carried out by the Apoyo and CPI consultancies. 
The Apoyo poll was based on interviews in Lima and urban 
areas taken on 4/3 and combined with rural results from the 
poll published on 4/2 (Ref A), has Humala at 31 percent with 
Flores and Garcia tied at 23 percent.  The CPI poll, taken 
nationally on 4/4, found a technical tie, with the top three 
candidates within a range of less than three percent:  Flores 
27.6 percent, Humala 25.9 percent and Garcia 24.9 percent. 
 
---------- 
COMMENT 
---------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  With active campaigning at an end, it now is up to 
the electorate to judge the candidates at the ballot box. 
One unanswered question is whether the constant political and 
media assaults on Humala will penetrate his Teflon shield and 
wear away at his support (as the CPI poll reports and as the 
previous Apoyo poll hinted was starting to occur - Ref A), or 
whether his base of committed followers will remain unchanged 
(as the latest Apoyo poll suggests).  The other major issues 
in play are whether Flores has managed to arrest or reverse 
her steady decline, and whether Garcia can maintain his final 
sprint for the finish line and make it into the second round. 
 The answers will come on 4/9.  END COMMENT. 
STRUBLE