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RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEV COMM COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LILONGWE 000371 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR AF/S - GABRIELLE MALLORY 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MI
SUBJECT: THE FUTURE OF THE MALAWI CONGRESS PARTY 
 
LILONGWE 00000371  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
This is the first in a three-part series on Malawi's largest 
political parties. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The Malawi Congress Party (MCP) is 
Malawi's oldest political party, and is the party of former 
Life President Dr. Hastings Kamuzu Banda. They are currently 
the largest opposition party with 57 seats in Parliament, 
and have a strong political base in the central region. 
However, the MCP must resolve a serious leadership challenge 
and broaden its support base to other regions if it hopes to 
form the next government in 2009. End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) The MCP, founded in September 1959, won all the seats 
in Malawi's first elections in 1961, except the few reserved 
for whites. It was the only legal party from independence in 
1964 to 1993, when Malawians voted to end the one-party 
state. Dr. Banda, originally from central Malawi, led the 
MCP until his death in November 1997. In April 2003 John 
Tembo, the party's current president, took over the party 
leadership from Dr. Banda's successor Gwanda Chakuamba. 
Tembo, a prominent figure in Banda's government and widely 
acknowledged to have been the "party hit-man" for Banda, has 
ruled the MCP with an iron fist since assuming control. 
 
The Constructive Opposition? 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) In the 2004 elections the MCP failed to win any 
parliamentary seats outside the central region. However, 
Tembo managed to consolidate the MCP's support in seven of 
the nine central districts. In Parliament the MCP won more 
seats than any other political party, fielding a number of 
young, well educated candidates.  However, the party lacked 
an outright majority (having won just over 30% of the 
seats), and was thus pushed into the opposition. John Tembo 
also believes he won the 2004 Presidential election, which 
most observers cited as flawed. 
 
¶4. (SBU) At the same time, the MCP is finding it difficult 
to establish itself in a constructive role as the opposition 
in Malawi, and its leaders are grasping for ways to take 
credit for issues they bring up. The most prominent example 
is the perceived success of the past year's fertilizer 
subsidy, for which the Mutharika government has largely 
taken credit, despite the fact that it was Tembo who brought 
the issue to the forefront of public debate and forced the 
government to deliver a much larger subsidy than originally 
planned.  This has made the MCP even more mistrustful of the 
government, and averse to constructively working with 
Mutharika. 
 
Challenges for the Future 
------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The MCP's failure to win any parliamentary seats in 
the December 2005 by-elections (which were only in the North 
and the South) strengthened the view that the MCP is 
exclusively a central-region party. For the party to gain a 
majority in Parliament, it must break out of its traditional 
power base and win supporters in other regions of Malawi. 
However, the challenge of expanding into the northern and 
central regions is compounded by two factors: John Tembo's 
leadership style and the growing attractiveness of the 
President Mutharika's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). 
 
A Problem at the Top 
-------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Like most party leaders in Malawi, John Tembo 
treats the MCP as his personal fiefdom. According to a 
leading party `rebel' and MCP parliamentarian, Bintony 
Kutsaira, the party's parliamentary caucus rarely meets, and 
when it does it is mainly to hear what plans Tembo has for 
the party. The party's shadow cabinet has only met once in 
the three years since Tembo assumed leadership. The party 
leader clearly does not value consultation, and often tries 
to intimidate the party rank-and-file (he once told an MCP 
MP who opposed him on a decision that if the man had done so 
during Banda's time Tembo would have had him killed). While 
older members of the party seem willing to back Tembo, 
younger more ambitious members have been privately, and 
publicly, complaining about his leadership over the past six 
months. Unlike the older party stalwarts, the younger 
members are not products of the era of unquestioning loyalty 
that existed during Dr. Banda's regime. 
 
LILONGWE 00000371  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Tembo is also a feared man, not only in the party, 
but also in the country at large. This is due to his role as 
Dr. Banda's right-hand man. Many opponents of the Banda 
regime were thrown in jail or murdered, and it is generally 
believed that Tembo played a hand those arrests and 
killings. MCP parliamentarians who have tried to address 
party issues openly have been rebuked by Tembo. A recent 
unsigned letter purported to be written by 39 MCP MPs 
outlined the dissatisfaction with the party leadership and 
called for Tembo to step down. One first term MCP MP has 
privately told Embassy officials that Tembo's leadership 
style makes it difficult for aspiring leaders to come in the 
open; thus it is only those who keep quiet who prosper in 
the party. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Respicious Dzanjalimodzi, the party's shadow 
finance minister, seems a clear favorite to assume 
leadership after Tembo.  Dzanjalimodzi has strong ties to 
the Banda family (his wife is Banda's grand-niece), is 
respected within the party, and has proved his loyalty to 
Tembo.  However, the 73-year-old Tembo shows no signs of 
slowing down, and despite the internal opposition, most 
expect him to be the MCP candidate for President in 2009. 
 
A Future MCP government? 
------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Tembo's main mistake since Mutharika came to power 
has been his inability or unwillingness to make inroads in 
the north and the south where support for other parties had 
collapsed or weakened. Tembo's opponents, who include 
Kutsaira and Zulu, claim that he is unable to campaign in 
the north or the south because most of the people he 
persecuted during the Banda regime were from the two 
regions. Clearly Tembo's inaction has allowed President 
Mutharika, with the help of government resources, to fill 
the political vacuum up north and down south. In fact, even 
within its central region stronghold the MCP is also facing 
a strong challenge from the DPP. The fertilizer subsidy 
program and a rural roads project have made the government 
very popular in the agriculturally focused region. 
 
¶9. (SBU) That said, while the party might be concerned with 
the rise of the DPP, at this point it seems unlikely that 
most rural central region voters would ever abandon the MCP. 
But their support alone has never been, and will never be, 
enough to push the MCP over the top.  For this reason alone 
the MCP must look outside of the central region-a challenge 
which will be difficult as long as John Tembo leads the 
party. 
 
Key MCP Leaders 
--------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) John Tembo, MCP President, Dedza-South (Central 
Region) - The 73-year-old Tembo spent most of his career as 
the hatchet-man for former Life President Hastings Banda. He 
now heads the MCP, though his cutthroat leadership style and 
refusal to share power have led some MPs to call for his 
resignation. Despite this, Tembo is expected to run for 
President in 2009. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Respicious Dzanjilamodzi, MCP Shadow Finance 
Minister, Lilongwe City South East (Central Region) - Widely 
considered Tembo's deputy and the heir-apparent to the MCP, 
Dzanjilamodzi is intelligent and easy to work with.  He is a 
first term MP.  However he spent his career in the civil 
service, serving as the Principal Secretary in a number of 
ministries before running for office in 2004.  His 
experience, along with his ties to the Banda family, 
articulateness and well-honed political skills, have put him 
in a position of prominence within the party.  Respicious 
admits that he expects to take over after Tembo, but is 
careful to say that he doesn't know when that will be.  In 
the meantime, he is content to quietly back Tembo in 
internal party disputes. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Bitony Kutsaira, MCP Shadow Health Minister, 
Lilongwe Msinja North (Central Region) - A leader of the 
MCP's young `rebel' MPs, Kutsaira is a former confidant of 
Tembo. Kutsaira has quietly been working behind the scenes 
to push Tembo towards retirement. He admits that the MCP has 
no chance of expanding beyond the central region as long as 
Tembo is its leader.  However, he is unlikely to lead the 
 
LILONGWE 00000371  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
MCP, and instead could play the role of king-maker for the 
next MCP president. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Ted Kalebe, MCP Shadow Minister of Economic 
Planning and Development, Lilongwe North East (Central 
Region) - Kalebe leads the `rebel' MPs along with Kutsaira, 
and serves as the most outspoken member of the group.  A 
career civil servant and experienced economist, he entered 
politics in 2004.  While Kutsaira is the brains behind the 
rebel group, Kalebe is often the one out front.  As such, he 
is the more likely of the two to contend for the party 
presidency at some point. 
 
 
 
EASTHAM