VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHJM #1508/01 1021436
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 121436Z APR 06
FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1547
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS JERUSALEM 001508 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NEA/IPA FOR 
WILLIAMS/GREENE/WATERS/WAECHTER; PRM FOR FRONT OFFICE AND 
PRM/ANE; NSC FOR DORAN/LOGERFO; TREASURY FOR ADKINS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PREF EAID ECON KWBG
SUBJECT: UN AGENCIES REVIEW CONTINGENCY PLANNING IN FACE OF 
HUMANITARIAN SITUATION 
 
REF: 05 JERUSALEM 05595 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: The United Nations Office for the 
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) head described on 
April 11 the likely humanitarian risks facing the West Bank 
and Gaza Strip in the coming months and the UN's contingency 
planning for what he described as a "predictable and 
inevitable crisis."  Funding for the UN's Consolidated 
Appeals Process (CAP), totaling USD 215 million for 2006, 
remains the top priority.  The UNRWA Deputy Commission 
General said the PA's likely failure to pay salaries and 
provide services would directly impact 50 percent of the 
Palestinian refugees in the West Bank and Gaza.  The UNDP 
Special Representative noted that Gaza crossing closures 
limited the availability of construction materials in Gaza, 
thereby slowing down UNDP's few fully-funded job-creation 
construction projects.  End Summary. 
 
Humanitarian Risks 
------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) OCHA head David Shearer reviewed the humanitarian 
risks facing the West Bank and Gaza with donors April 11.  He 
based his presentation on three scenarios, largely based upon 
the World Bank's March 15 Economic Update and Potential 
Outlook: 
 
-- Scenario 1:  Current situation but no abrupt change in PA 
funding.  PA receives aid as in 2005 (USD 360 million).  PA 
receives Israeli transfers as in 2005 of USD 790 million. 
Israeli security measures intensify with continued 
restrictions on Palestinian movement and access to services. 
(Comment: This is simply a planning scenario, and no one 
expects this level of assistance.  End comment.) 
 
-- Scenario 2:  Current crisis plus limited and erratic 
funding of the PA.  PA receives limited funding (USD 230 
million) from Arab countries, while Western funding is 
withdrawn.  Western donors identify alternative financing 
mechanisms separate from the PA.  Donor contributions are 
delayed by banks' halting of transactions with the PA.  The 
liquidation of PA assets and borrowing from banks is delayed. 
 GOI suspends revenue transfer that it collects on behalf of 
the PA.  In addition to the security trends mentioned in 
Scenario 1, violence from unpaid security staff limits 
operations of international workers and organizations. 
 
-- Scenario 3:  Current crisis and no funds available for the 
PA.  All aid to the PA is halted.  GOI suspends revenue 
transfer that it collects on behalf of the PA.  In addition 
to Scenario 2, the PA loses control of security and 
privatized security is offered by armed groups.  The economy 
slides into a collapse far worse than in Scenario 2. 
 
UN agencies' contingency planning 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Shearer said the UN agencies were using the second 
scenario as the basis for their contingency planning.  He 
stressed that if the PA stops delivery of services, it will 
be felt immediately since, the PA runs most hospitals, 
two-thirds of all health clinics, and 75 percent of schools. 
With the poverty rate at 56 percent and anticipated to rise 
above 70 percent, compounded by erratic payment of PA 
salaries, the economic outlook was bleak indeed, he said. 
The depth of crisis would depend on the amount of funding the 
PA received and how the PA prioritized use of those funds. 
Shearer stressed that the security situation would determine 
the international community's response capability.  He 
pointed to the continuous feuding in Gaza as an example 
indicating the rising level of insecurity.  The UN is at its 
highest threat level (Phase 4) in Gaza and has reduced the 
number of its international staff from 78 to 8 and only 
allows movement in Gaza with armed guards. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Unlike other humanitarian situations, Shearer said 
this was a "predictable and inevitable" crisis with a 
middle-income, highly urbanized population heavily reliant on 
the delivery of services.  He stressed that humanitarian 
assistance can be quite a blunt instrument and cannot replace 
core PA functions.  He underlined that UN agencies were not 
planning to do so, either.  (Comment: UN agencies are averse 
to taking over core PA services.  UN agencies and NGOs 
combined do not have the capacity to fully take over PA 
service delivery.  End comment.)  Even if the UN agencies and 
 
NGOs were prepared to replace some PA services, Shearer 
stipulated that it would require some consent from the PA. 
He also noted that humanitarian assistance delivery is often 
fractured and uncoordinated, but the UN agencies would seek 
to respond using a coordinated approach.  He said they would 
adhere to the principle of impartiality and helping those 
most in need.  He said the UN agencies are not appealing for 
additional funding but are seeking to fully fund the 2006 CAP 
(described in reftel) since the projects proposed for CAP 
funding remain applicable and appropriate for the immediate 
future.  Over the next few weeks, Shearer said the UN 
agencies would further refine their contingency planning and 
circulate a revised appeal. 
 
Refugees will turn to UNRWA 
if PA cannot provide services 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) United Nations Relief and Works Agency for 
Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) Deputy 
Commissioner General Filippo Grandi told the group that UNRWA 
would continued to provide services to refugees according to 
its mandate.  Noting that as many as 66,000 out of 300,000 
refugee households in the West Bank and Gaza received PA 
salaries, he said that weakening PA service delivery could 
impact up to 50 percent of the refugee population. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Grandi said UNRWA anticipated a significant 
increase in the utilization rate of its basic services as 
refugees who currently access PA-provided health, education, 
and relief services turn back to UNRWA.  He estimated that 
UNRWA could see a 25 percent increase in use of UNRWA health 
services and 45,000 more pupils in UNRWA schools.  He said 
UNRWA could expand its emergency employment, food 
distribution, and special cash distribution programs in 
response.  However, he stressed that UNRWA's first priority 
is to fully implement currently planned emergency activities 
which are severely under-funded.  Thus far, UNRWA had 
received commitments of USD 17 million (not including the 
USG's April 7 pledge of USD 51 million) for its USD 95 
million emergency appeal. 
 
UNDP: Trying to generate jobs 
through projects, but lack of materials 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) United Nations Development Program Special 
Representative Jens Toyberg said that, despite having six 
fully-funded projects in Gaza totaling 70 million, UNDP 
projects were delayed because of a lack of locally available 
construction materials due to frequent closures of Gaza 
crossings.  Before the closures, he noted that UNDP had been 
consuming 21 percent of construction materials entering Gaza. 
 These projects could result in one million person days of 
employment in 2006 for Gaza operating at maximum capacity, 
the actual impact would likely be much smaller given the 
unavailability of construction materials. 
WALLES