VZCZCXRO1799
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHPB
DE RUEHHI #0837/01 1030444
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 130444Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1452
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC//USDP/ISA/AP// PRIORITY
RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 0927
RUEHZS/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 2910
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5482
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0879
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0659
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 0223
RUEHRO/USMISSION UN ROME
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 1354
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC
RUEHRC/USDA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHINGTON DC//J2/J3/J5//
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC//DHO-3//
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI//J00/J2/J3/J5//
RHEFAFM/DIRAFMIC FT DETRICK MD//MA-1A//

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HANOI 000837 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR G, CA/OCS/ACS/EAP, EAP/EX, EAP/MLS, EAP/EP, INR, 
OES/STC (PBATES), OES/IHA (DSINGER AND NCOMELLA), AND MED 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR ANE AND GH (DCARROLL, SCLEMENTS AND 
PCHAPLIN) 
STATE PASS TO USTR (ELENA BRYAN) 
STATE PASS TO HHS/OGHA (WSTIEGER, EELVANDER AND ABHAT) 
USDA PASS TO APHIS 
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FOR OSD/ISA/AP (LSTERN) 
BANGKOK FOR RMO, CDC, USAID (MFRIEDMAN, JMACARTHUR AND 
MBRADY) 
ROME FOR FAO 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TBIO KFLU AMED AMGT CASC EAGR PINR SOCI VM
SUBJECT:  GVN TO PRESENT MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM AI STRATEGY; 
PRAISE AND CALLS FOR CONTINUED DONOR SUPPORT FROM THE UN 
 
 
HANOI 00000837  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. DO NOT POST ON THE INTERNET. 
 
REF: (A) Hanoi 800 and previous 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Ambassador Marine attended the Monthly 
Donor Group Forum on Avian Influenza (AI) on April 7. 
Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) Cao Duc 
Phat and Senior United Nations System Coordinator for Avian 
and Human Influenza David Nabarro were keynote speakers. 
Phat stressed that although there have been no AI outbreaks 
in poultry since December 2005, AI remains a threat in 
Vietnam, and asked for continued donor support.  He noted 
that the GVN will present a draft of its medium and long- 
term National Preparedness Plan, also referred to as the 
"Green Book" to international donors for comment on April 
12, and to the Review Team of the World Bank and other 
donors in mid-April.  Nabarro praised Vietnam's efforts and 
success in managing AI, but stressed that the threat remains 
high, and called for donors to continue their support.  He 
gave an overview of the global AI situation, noting the 
exponential increase in the number of countries affected by 
AI, and elaborated on funding frameworks and national 
preparedness plan fundamentals.  Nabarro and Food and 
Agriculture Organization (FAO) representative Christina 
Amaral made a point to express to the Ambassador their 
appreciation for the United States' contributions.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Ambassador Marine attended the Monthly Donor Group 
Forum on AI on April 7.  Minister of Agriculture and Rural 
Development (MARD) Cao Duc Phat and Senior United Nations 
System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza David 
Nabarro were keynote speakers.  A representative of the 
Ministry of Health also made brief remarks.  Heads of 
Mission, and representatives from multilateral agencies 
participated in the meeting. 
 
Phat: Vietnam Turning to Medium and Long-Term Strategies 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
¶3. (SBU) Phat stressed that while Vietnam has had no AI 
outbreaks in poultry since December 2005, the GVN continues 
to see AI as a threat and remains on high alert.  Of 
particular concern is that Muscovy ducks may have become a 
virus reservoir, and there is a booming illegal cross-border 
trade in chickens and ducks from China.  A new round of 
vaccinations targeted at 34 high-risk provinces has begun, 
and a poultry disinfection campaign continues.  The 
government is looking into how to raise, slaughter and 
market chicken in a manner that reduces the threat of AI. 
The National Committee on AI meets weekly, and has 
instructed all provinces to take uniform anti-AI measures. 
The focus is on education, since there is a feeling that 
there has been relaxation after several months without an AI 
outbreak.  Phat asked donors to continue working with the 
GVN in recognition that AI remains a threat. 
 
¶4. (SBU) MARD has been encouraged by the international 
support received after the January Beijing Conference on AI, 
 
HANOI 00000837  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
where Vietnam presented its "Preparedness Plan to Control 
Epizootic and Human Pandemic for the Period 2006-2008" also 
referred to as the "Red Book".  An inter-agency working 
group led by MARD was established to formulate a medium and 
long-term National Preparedness Plan to control and 
eradicate AI.  A draft of this plan, referred to as the 
"Green Book", will be circulated to international donors for 
comments on April 12, and will be presented to the Review 
team of the World Bank and other donors in mid-April.  Key 
elements of the strategy are disease control, activity 
consolidation, and disease eradication. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Poultry vaccination, this year targeted in 34 
provinces, remains a key element of Vietnam's anti-AI 
strategy.  In addition, all farmers are required to 
disinfect their facilities while public authorities are to 
disinfect markets, slaughterhouses and other public areas 
where fowl are present.  Particular attention is being paid 
to stopping the illegal import of chickens and ducks from 
China.  Efforts are being made to restructure the poultry 
industry in order to increase bio-security.  The government 
is also seeking to increase veterinary services capacity, 
and to develop a vaccine locally, especially for ducks, 
using virus donated by the WHO.  In response to donor 
questions, Phat stated that while vaccination is not a 
panacea and is costly, it has been an important strategy in 
Vietnam, where the H5N1 virus is endemic in chickens and 
ducks.  Nabarro added that vaccination has a clear role in 
countries where AI is endemic, though not all these 
countries are automatically candidates for vaccination 
campaigns.  He said that the FAO is continually reviewing 
its risk assessment and monitoring the situation in these 
countries. 
 
Nabarro: Praise for Vietnam and the AI Global Overview 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
¶6. (SBU) Nabarro highly praised Vietnam's efforts and 
success in managing AI since the disease was discovered.  He 
stressed, however, that the threat remains high, and called 
for donors to continue their support.  Vietnam is a test 
case whose government has demonstrated a commitment to 
contributing to the global good and needs to receive 
adequate resources.  It is also the source of a potential 
global threat if Vietnam's Muscovy ducks have become a virus 
reservoir, he noted.  During general discussion, EC 
Ambassador Markus Cornaro concurred that Vietnam should not 
be penalized for having responded quickly and should remain 
a high funding priority.  (Note:  Nabarro and FAO 
representative Christina Amaral both made a point to express 
to the Ambassador their appreciation for the United States' 
delivery on its pledges.  End note.) 
 
¶7. (SBU) Nabarro gave an overview of the current global AI 
situation, which has developed into a rapidly changing 
epizootic, the animal equivalent of a pandemic.  Since 
January, over 30 countries have reported outbreaks of AI in 
birds, twice the number reported in the previous 2 1/2 
years.  The UN head veterinarian believes that in the next 
 
HANOI 00000837  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
two months AI will appear in an increasing number of 
countries, and will infect a proportionally higher number of 
birds.  AI has been spreading west from Southeast Asia along 
both migratory and trade routes, as infected chicks and eggs 
are traded and smuggled, he observed. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Nabarro said there are three possible scenarios in 
which AI would be transmittable between humans and became a 
pandemic:  a) mild; b) several milder events that recur over 
a number of years; c) a dramatic event on the scale of the 
1918 flu, which is the least likely but also the most 
serious.  In response to questions, Nabarro said that 
although he is not convinced of the cyclicity of flu 
pandemics, he is certain of their inevitability, and that 
the change in H5N1's infectivity characteristics is cause 
for alarm.  The impact of a flu pandemic would have negative 
effects on people's livelihoods, human health, governments, 
rule of law, and the global economic system, and would 
increase humanitarian needs, Nabarro continued.  In response 
countries need to formulate plans to: stop AI in animals; 
prevent a pandemic from developing by limiting human 
exposure to diseased birds; and mitigate quickly should a 
pandemic develop.  National AI plans should address: animal 
health; bio-security; public health; continued government 
and rule of law; sustainability of economic and social 
systems; a vulnerability assessment; and providing 
humanitarian aid.  In addition to short-term emergency 
action plans, national plans should include medium-term 
plans for government investment in AI prevention, 
development of a strong evidence base and institutions, 
capacity building, and long-term technical assistance. 
 
Financing National Plans 
------------------------ 
¶9. (SBU) The emphasis of financial support remains on 
national plans, channeled through direct-bilateral aid, 
multi-donor trust funds established in country, and 
International Development Association (IDA) and 
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development(IBRD) 
loans available to cover otherwise unfunded elements of the 
national plan.  Additional financing is available through 
regional institutions and networks, and multilateral 
institutions such as the World Organization for Animal 
Health (OIE), and NGOs such as the Red Cross.  Responding to 
donor questions, Nabarro explained that the UN will provide 
technical assistance through its specialized agencies, while 
the World Bank and regional development banks will be major 
sources of financing and expertise in designing effective 
financial frameworks and capacity building.  Nabarro noted 
that the USD 1.9 billion estimate for addressing AI 
worldwide that was discussed in Beijing was based on 
calculations done in a period where only approximately ten 
countries had reported AI cases. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Nabarro stated that countries need to establish a 
national level task force to develop an integrated plan, 
that will include transition from a crisis to a long-term 
response.  Joint appraisal and prioritization with the donor 
 
HANOI 00000837  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
community is critical to identify plan funding.  The 
appraisal should establish that the plan is reflective of 
circumstances; has support at a high political level; is 
evidence based; incorporates a sound technical strategy; 
and, has community engagement, an implicit capacity to 
address the problem, and crisis response triggers.  Plans 
should be coordinated in country at all levels and include 
civil society, and on the regional and international levels. 
Priorities should include: assessing the ever-changing 
situation and the risks to the population, especially the 
poor; establishing an evidence base; distributing 
information; maintaining animal health; engaging the public 
health sector; and providing for the continuity of the 
economic, governmental, and social sectors in the event of a 
pandemic.  In response to a question from the Ambassador, 
Nabarro said that the UN is taking lessons learned from 
Vietnam, China, Laos and Cambodia to reduce the learning 
curve in countries experiencing H5N1 more recently. 
 
MARINE