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PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0752/01 1140935
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 240935Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7305
INFO RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 8512
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DUSHANBE 000752 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR P, S/P, SCA/FO, SCA/CEN, EUR/RUS, INL, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EAID EINV SOCI KCOR IR CH RS TI
SUBJECT: RAHMONOV'S ANNUAL SPEECH TO PARLIAMENT ELECTION-YEAR 
PERFORMANCE; U.S. ASSISTANCE DRAWS SPONTANEOUS APPLAUSE 
 
REF: OSC CEP20060422950111 
 
DUSHANBE 00000752  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please handle accordingly. 
Not for public Internet. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  President Rahmonov's annual speech to the 
nation, one of his longest in recent memory, was clearly a 
populist election-year tract, but also a statesmanlike balancing 
act that leaned, at times, toward reform, with an occasional 
diatribe against corruption (officials hiding their wealth and 
those who steal government funds intended for the 
disadvantaged).  Although the focus was mostly domestic, in 
foreign policy it maintained a relatively even balance among 
Russia, the United States, and China, with the United States 
being the only major power to receive spontaneous applause from 
the audience because of it's "no-strings-attached assistance for 
Tajikistan."   Iran received relatively short shrift as a 
provider of economic assistance for major infrastructure 
projects.  The president's think-tank director views the speech 
as a victory for reform and well-balanced international 
relations.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmonov delivered his 
annual "state of the nation" speech to a joint session of 
parliament April 20 (ref is full text in English).  His cabinet, 
chairmen of the various high courts, the diplomatic community, 
and domestic and Russian press corps also attended, but 
uniformed military commanders were noticeably absent.  The 
two-hour five-minute speech, coinciding with Tajikistan's 15th 
year of independence, was a laundry list of social and economic 
development highlights and high-minded visions for the future 
(e.g., tripling per capita GDP by 2015 to $1,000), but with few 
new concrete initiatives, save one about property amnesty 
(below).  All in all, it was a cautious, populist, 
international-standard election-year speech.   Although Rahmonov 
frequently referred to the 15th anniversary of independence, and 
gave a few passing nods to Kulob's 2,700th anniversary 
celebration (already now several years late because of 
corruption in the preparations), he did not once mention that 
2006 is his declared 'Year of Aryan Culture," possibly because 
of frequently voiced international disapprobation, especially by 
Germany. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) This speech was probably Rahmonov's least 
forward-leaning of the last three years - long on statistics and 
platitudes, but relatively short on new proposals - possibly 
because he's saving his big guns for later in this presidential 
election year.  In our analysis, there were two areas of special 
interest.  One was his offer of property amnesty, and the other 
was his review of foreign relations. 
 
PROPERTY AMNESTY PROPOSED 
 
¶5.  (U) Rahmonov is always most interesting when he goes 
off-text and speaks his own mind.  His prepared text had a 
one-sentence proposal for a "property amnesty."  His off-text 
explanation was the longest, and apparently most heart-felt, of 
his entire speech.  He said, "People, the Civil War is over.  We 
need to know who owns what.  We need to regularize and register 
and declare all properties and begin to pay taxes.  The purpose 
is to reduce corruption in the future."  Heatedly, he added, 
"Honestly, it's shameful that some ministries have become 
'family enterprises,' with ill-gotten wealth registered in the 
names of family members while the ministers appear to be 
paupers.  This has to stop!  Where's the transparency?  The law 
is for all!  And the members of parliament must be the first to 
 
DUSHANBE 00000752  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
comply."  He paused, glaring at his uneasy audience, and then 
asked, "Don't you agree?"  The audience dutifully but certainly 
uneasily responded with applause.  Not content, Rahmonov 
continued his riff, "I mean, drive around town and look at all 
the new mansions - they must be declared!  If not, we will 
confiscate these properties," he thundered. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) COMMENT:  In fact, Rahmonov himself is responsible for 
this current sorry condition - a country more ruled by 
off-the-books corruption than by law, and one where his own 
family and clan members receive many benefits and privileges. 
He has achieved his consolidation of power and Tajikistan's 
remarkable stability by in the past having sanctioned 
rent-seeking as an expedient policy.  In Summer 2005, the 
Ambassador was present when Rahmonov gave Afghanistan's 
President Hamid Karzai Dutch-uncle advice:  "If you want 
post-war stability, do as I did.  Bring the warlords out of the 
mountains, anchor them in the cities, and let them get rich." 
To his credit, Rahmonov now realizes that it's time to turn the 
ocean-liner of this expedient but ultimately destructive policy, 
and we believe that multiple international interventions have 
helped him see this.  But the great irony, even hypocricy, is 
that his own family, and certainly his Kulobi clan, may be one 
of the greatest national violators.  Nevertheless, to provide a 
weak defense for him, we would note that during the last year, 
his "Family Bank" and its aggressive acquisitions have had a 
much lower profile than in the past.  END COMMENT. 
 
REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE INTEGRATION 
 
¶7.  (U) A very long section of the speech was Rahmonov's vision 
for the rehabilitation and new extension of the regional 
infrastructure, with Tajikistan as the epicenter - especially 
transportation routes, both road and rail, hydro-energy, and, to 
a lesser extent, telecommunications.  Indeed, his vision 
appeared lifted almost verbatim from Secretary Rice's 
Infrastructure Integration Initiative for Greater Central Asia. 
 
STOP STEALING FROM ORPHANS! 
 
¶8.  (U) In an extremely long central section of his speech, 
Rahmonov ticked off his government's increasing attention to and 
expenditures for the social sector.  In a populist move, he 
vowed beginning May 1 an increase of about $30 per month for 
pensions of World War II veterans (still about 5,500 in the 
country) and war widows.  He noted already increased salaries 
for teachers, doctors, and scholars.  He said his government is 
providing nearly $120 per month for each orphan and other youth 
in state institutions.  (NOTE:  A surprisingly high government 
commitment we cannot confirm, and that certainly isn't reflected 
in the quality of the facilities.  END NOTE.)  Then, in his 
second significant off-text departure, he said, "I challenge you 
to visit an orphanage, as I do, and you will ask, 'Where does 
the money go?'  Look at the sorry state of these poor children, 
and you will know that the managers are stealing the money." 
Rahmonov thundered, "Stop this now, or you will suffer the same 
fate as others who have neglected their charges!"  (COMMENT: 
This appears to be a reference to the officials now on trial for 
dereliction of duty during the horrific Dushanbe Chorbog 
Orphanage fire in January in which 17 special-needs children 
perished.  END COMMENT.) 
 
FOREIGN RELATIONS:  RUSSIA, THE UNITED STATES, CHINA, AND, UM, 
THE OTHERS 
 
 
DUSHANBE 00000752  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶9.  (U) Rahmonov opened the final section of his speech - 
foreign policy - by acknowledging that although national 
interests must always come first, it's totally normal that world 
powers are competing for influence in Central Asia because of 
their global interests.  He listed three for special influence 
and contributions. 
 
¶10.  (U) RUSSIA.  First was Russia.  He praised the "bilateral 
strategic partnership that will continue to develop and even 
accelerate."  He expressed satisfaction that Tajik-Russian 
cultural and scientific ties have finally begun to be restored. 
He then said that economic cooperation is especially important, 
noting the Tajikistan "expects $2.5 billion in Russian 
investment." 
 
¶11. (SBU) COMMENT:  Considering Moscow's full-court press for 
geo-strategic influence in Tajikistan since late 2004, this was 
a surprisingly restrained assessment of the Tajik-Russian 
bilateral relationship.  Especially glaring was Rahmonov's 
choice of words that Russian investment is "expected," rather 
than promised or confirmed.  We don't want to read too much into 
this, but it almost seemed as if he was saying, "OK, comrades, 
if you mean it, follow through."  END COMMENT. 
 
¶12.  (U) THE UNITED STATES.  Next came the United States. 
Rahmonov said that one of Tajikistan's most important 
achievements in the past year is "the expansion and further 
development" of relations with the United States.  He praised 
the U.S.-Tajik partnership in combating terrorism and narcotics, 
and U.S. support for border management that has led to greater 
stability in Tajikistan and the entire region.  Rahmonov once 
again paid high tribute to the United States for "selflessly" 
funding the Tajik-Afghan bridge over the Pyanzh River, to better 
promote regional integration through the stability that comes 
from prosperity.  He explicitly said he is ready further to 
consolidate relations with "all senior U.S. Government 
officials."  He noted that U.S. economic, development, and 
humanitarian assistance 2003-2005 was nearly $200 million, "with 
no strings attached."  This elicited what appeared to be 
spontaneous and sustained applause from the audience. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) COMMENT:  At close of business the night before the 
speech, Embassy Dushanbe received a frantic call from the 
presidency asking for the total dollar amount of all forms of 
assistance 2003-2005.  We scrambled and came up with this 
reasonably accurate ball-park figure, but suspect it may be 
somewhat low, since we were unable accurately to calculate all 
DOD assistance.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶14.  (U) CHINA:  Third in "the majors" was China.  Rahmonov 
noted that all border demarcation issues have been resolved, and 
that economic ties are growing.  He then focused on China's 
increasing economic support for major infrastructure projects in 
Tajikistan, especially for land transportation routes and 
electricity lines. 
 
¶15.  (U) COMMENT:  China came in like gangbusters at the end of 
2005 with a flurry of high-level visits and pledges for $560 
million investment in telecom, transport, and energy.  However, 
in recent weeks, as the two countries have tried to negotiate 
the specific details, especially the interest rate of Chinese 
investment, there have been hurdles, and the final signing has 
stalled.  END COMMENT 
 
¶16.  (U) THE OTHERS, LIKE IRAN:  Rahmonov then rather 
 
DUSHANBE 00000752  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
perfunctorily ticked off other relations:  the Shanghai 
Cooperation Organization, the European Union ("would like closer 
relations with Germany, France, and the United Kingdom"), the 
Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic 
Community, and the United Nations, "especially UNESCO." 
 
¶17.  (U) Only then did Rahmonov say, "Political will is needed 
for better regional cooperation."  At this point, he noted that 
relations with Iran have "broadened and strengthened," 
especially with Tehran's financing of the Anzob Tunnel and the 
Sangtunda-II hydro-electric station.  Among other regional 
players, Rahmonov said Afghanistan's "growing stability can mean 
broader relations."  From India he expects assistance in 
advanced information technology and the energy infrastructure. 
Finally noted that relations with Turkey "have been important 
from the beginning and will grow."  He then very briefly gave a 
nod to Arab nations ("We expect greater investment,") East Asia, 
and Euro-Atlantic institutions. 
 
¶18.  (U) In what appeared to be almost a perfunctory 
after-thought, Rahmonov said that he values "constructive 
relations" with international NGOs, but "they need to follow 
their charters and our own laws." 
 
¶19.  (SBU) COMMENT:  While chatting after the speech with Suhrob 
Sharipov, the reformist Director of the President's Strategic 
Research Center, which had produced the early drafts, the 
Ambassador commented noncommittally that the speech had seemed 
"well-balanced."  Sharipov, looking exhausted but exhilarated, 
replied, "You wouldn't believe how hard we fought against the 
competing factions to keep it balanced, fair to all, and 
positive.  But in the end we won.  Because he spoke it, it is 
now policy."  END COMMENT. 
HOAGLAND