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DE RUEHSL #0349/01 1181403
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 281403Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9791
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000349 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL KDEM SOCI EU BO LO
SUBJECT: CONFERENCE ON BELARUS: EU ON DEFENSIVE, RUSSIANS 
STAY AWAY 
 
REF: 05 BRATISLAVA 924 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  An April 25-26 conference on Belarus 
held at the Slovak Ministry on Foreign Affairs was an 
intellectual lynch mob in two acts.  The first day, academics 
and activists painted a bleak picture of the Lukashenko 
regime, criticized Russian "meddling," and presented 
statistical data that showed Lukashenko won the election by a 
much smaller margin than announced.  Russian MFA 
representative Alexej Andrejevic Sazonov, who had traveled to 
Bratislava ostensibly for the Conference, failed to show up 
for the panel on Belarus' relationship with its neighbors. 
Despite an open invitation to any audience member who would 
like to represent Russia's views, no one was forthcoming. 
The second day focused on EU policy and instruments, with 
calls for the creation of an EU Special Representative for 
Belarus and a broader visa ban.  Throughout the conference, 
Belarusian activists repeated their message:  the 
international community must focus on "saving the lives" of 
detained political prisoners, while keeping in mind that the 
people of Belarus cannot wait five more years for change. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
MANAEV'S NUMBERS:  LUKA WON, BUT NOT AS BIG 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  A conference on "The European Union and Belarus 
After the Presidential Elections: The Need For a New 
Strategic Approach" was held April 25-26 at the Slovak MFA, 
and co-sponsored by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, the German 
Marshall Fund, and the Slovak Foreign Policy Association. 
Minister of Foreign Affairs Eduard Kukan called for a focus 
on strengthening civil society in Belarus, while declaring 
support for ODIHR's declaration that Belarus' March elections 
were not free, fair, or transparent.  Kukan said that 
Slovakia welcomed the April 10 GAERC conclusions on Belarus 
as the beginning of improved EU measures, and voiced his 
support for the visa ban.  However, Kukan said Slovakia 
advocates a "bigger list" that is left open for new additions. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Oleg Manaev, the Director for the Institute for 
Independent Socio-Economic and Political Studies in Belarus, 
presented what he claimed were more accurate election result 
statistics developed from polling conducted in the days 
following the election.  According to Manaev, Lukashenko 
received 63 percent of the vote (vice 83 percent), and 
Milinkevich 21 percent (vice 6.1 percent).  Kozulin received 
4.9 percent (vice the 2.2 announced by the Central Election 
Committee).  Manaev said that while two thirds of Belarusians 
said they watched the televised statements by the candidates, 
only 10 percent said it affected the way they voted. 
 
SANNIKOV: NEED TO FOCUS ON THE PRISONERS 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Charter 97 founder Andrei Sannikov's told the 
audience that there was an "uprising, but not a revolution." 
Sannikov suggested that the focus of the international 
community should be directed at the near-term goal of "saving 
the lives" of political prisoners held by the Lukashenko 
regime after the protests on October square.  According to 
Sannikov, the activist community in Belarus is united in its 
insistence that Belarus cannot wait another five years for 
political change. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Slovak MFA Political Director Miroslav Lajcak told 
the Conference that Slovakia was proud of its role prompting 
EU action, specifically the development of the visa ban list 
and discussions of "smart sanctions."  Lajcak also told the 
panelists that Slovakia was against elevating Schengen visa 
fees, as it was important that Europe be accessible to 
Belarusian citizens.  Lajcak -- who visited Minsk in advance 
of the March elections -- also painted a picture of GOB 
interlocutors as "apologetic and reserved."  In his 
interactions with the GOB in March, he said many bureaucrats 
were ready to admit that Belarus had problems, but at the 
same time seemed unwilling to change.  As far as Slovak 
foreign policy is concerned, Lajcak said Belarus is "at the 
top of the list." 
 
RUSSIA REMAINS THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Neither the Belarusian nor Russian Ambassadors to 
Slovakia attended the conference, and Russian MFA 
representative Alexej Andrejevic Sazonov, who had traveled to 
Bratislava ostensibly for the conference, failed to show up. 
Highlighting the fact that the relationship between the two 
countries is deeper than a simple geopolitical equation, 
Manaev said that given the choice between being "European" or 
"Russian," 32 percent of Belarusians choose "European" while 
 
BRATISLAVA 00000349  002 OF 003 
 
 
56 percent choose "Russian."  Former Polish Ambassador to 
Belarus Mariusz Maszkiewicz, who was detained after 
participating in the October square demonstrations, said that 
there were several Russians at the square alongside 
Belarusian activists who considered it their "duty" to help 
Belarus with democracy. 
 
WHY NO RUSSIAN OR BELARUSIAN PARTICIPATION 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  On April 27, MFA Director for CIS and Balkans 
Stefan Rozkopal told EUR DAS Rosemary DiCarlo that MFA State 
Secretary (Deputy Minister) Magda Vasaryova had sent a letter 
 
SIPDIS 
in advance of the conference to the Russian Ambassador 
requesting a speaker from Russia as well as the Ambassador's 
attendance at the conference.  Meanwhile, all other Chiefs of 
Mission -- including the U.S. and Belarusian Ambassadors -- 
were invited via e-mail.  However, because of the close 
relationship between the Belarusian and Russian Ambassadors 
in Bratislava, the Belarusian Ambassador decided that, since 
he did not receive a letter like his Russian colleague, he 
had not been "officially" invited and was noticeably absent 
from the forum.  While the Russians later conveniently 
double-booked the speaker they had brought in for the 
conference (precluding his participation), the Belarusians 
did not get off so lightly; the MFA is calling in the 
Belarusian Ambassador on May 2 so Rozkopal can inform him 
officially of the conference and fill him in on what he 
missed. 
 
DAY 2:  EU BASHING 
------------------ 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  The second day of the conference was dedicated to 
"Revising the EU's Instruments" and "Rethinking the EU's 
Policy."  German MP Markus Meckel was the first speaker to 
call for the creation of an EU Special Representative for 
Belarus, and he knocked the EU's funding mechanism for being 
able to dole out "10 million dollars in 2 weeks, while 
getting 10,000 dollars for a project is almost impossible." 
Meckel proposed expanding the EU visa ban to every university 
rector that expels a student at Lukashenko's orders, and 
every judge who sentences someone to prison for participating 
in peaceful protests; "people must realize that they have to 
change their own behavior, or at least take responsibility 
for their actions" he said. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Slovak NGO activist Balazs Jarabik said that EU 
reaction times are appalling, and that any revision of EU 
instruments must address the problems synchronizing policy, 
communications, and democratic assistance among the 25. 
While the EU effectively uses its 11 Heads of Mission in 
Minsk to challenge the status quo, Jarabik called for more 
"high level" interactions by Solana and an EU Special 
Representative for Belarus; other conference attendees 
proposed asking EU aspirants such as Croatia and Turkey to 
amplify the EU message by implementing the visa bans 
themselves, since many Belarusians go to Croatia and Turkey 
for holidays. 
 
GERMAN POLICY PLANNER: EU NEEDS A NEW PHILOSOPHY 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Martin Kremer, Counselor for EU-related Affairs 
at the German Foreign Office's Policy Planning directorate, 
told the conference that the EU needs a "new philosophy" that 
encompasses Belarus and Russia.  He called on the EU to 
develop a more "proactive" policy rather than a reactive one, 
and for an increase in person-to-person and student 
exchanges.  Kremer was also one of the strongest voices 
calling for the creation of an EU "Action Plan" on Belarus, 
which would communicate the benefits of cooperation with the 
Union to the Belarusian people.  He said that the German and 
Finnish EU Presidencies will likely support such activities. 
 
FERRERO-WALDNER REP DEFENDS EU AD NAUSEUM 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  Judith Gebetsrothiner, a member of Commissioner 
Ferrero-Waldner's cabinet, said that while there is "room for 
improvement" the EU's actions -- including its funding for 30 
minutes of broadcasting a week -- should not be overlooked. 
Still, she admitted that the EU is a "compromise" institution 
which does "what our flexibility allows."  While she 
delivered a labored defense of EU response times and 
policies, several attendees left the room for cigarettes and 
coffee, and one analyst pantomimed suicide by hanging himself 
by his tie before she delivered her final thought: that the 
EU "cannot substantially increase engagement or assistance to 
Belarus, but will try to increase student and academic 
exchanges." 
 
BRATISLAVA 00000349  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶12.  (SBU)  Similarly, Pirkka Tapiola, adviser to the policy 
unit of the EU High Representative for Common Foreign and 
Security Policy, defended a small visa ban list by saying 
that "in politics, you need responsibility" and that it was 
better to hold those few people clearly responsible for 
Belarus' political situation responsible while sparing the 
rest.  Tapiola also warned conference members not to expect 
the EU to change its posture towards Belarus in the near 
term, as the EU (by which he likely meant Javier Solana) 
believes its "two track" approach is the right one. 
 
MANAEV: EURONEWS AN UNTAPPED RESOURCE 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU)  Pursuing media coverage on Euronews, a television 
news program broadcast in several European languages 
including Russian, was touted as a free alternative to the 
EU's multi-million dollar broadcast schemes to date.  Manaev 
said that his polling data showed that 2.4 percent of 
Belarusians listen to the EU-sponsored Deutschewelle 
broadcast, 5.7 percent listen to EU-funded European radio, 
and 3.7 percent watch the European news.  On the other hand, 
Manaev said, Euronews is watched by nearly one million 
Belarusians, and when Euronews covered the visit of 
Milinkevich to western Europe earlier this month, those 
viewers were watching.  Manaev said that using "free" media 
already established in Belarus should be an EU priority. 
 
REVOKING ILO PRIVILEGES: A "NON-SANCTION" OPTION? 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶14.  (SBU)  The panelists discussed the possibility of 
getting the International Labor Organization (ILO) to cancel 
Belarus' trade preferences and privileges, which they say 
equal EUR 200 million a year.  The cancellation of these 
privileges are not "sanctions" per se, but could definitely 
be used as a practical tool to punish the Lukashenko regime. 
VALLEE