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RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHWR #0518 0791602
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 201602Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY WARSAW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0118
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS WARSAW 000518 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PL
SUBJECT: IN FRUSTRATION, POLISH GOVERNING PARTY CALLS FOR 
EARLY ELECTIONS 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Declaring "no other way out" of Poland's ongoing 
political stalemate, governing Law and Justice (PiS) leader 
Jaroslaw Kaczynski announced March 18 that his party will 
seek to dissolve parliament and hold new elections in May, 
prior to Pope Benedict XVI's scheduled visit to Poland at the 
end of that month.  Several opposition parties, including the 
centrist Civic Platform (whose 131 seats are alone nearly 
enough to block the self-dissolution measure, which requires 
a two-thirds majority), reacted negatively to the proposal, 
almost ensuring its defeat should it come to a vote as 
planned April 6. 
 
¶2. (SBU) In that event, Kaczynski and other senior PiS 
officials stated that they would form a coalition government 
with the populist Self-Defense party and another party, most 
probably the Peasants Party (PSL).  Self-Defense leader 
Andrzej Lepper welcomed the notion of a formal coalition, 
even if only until November local elections, when 
parliamentary elections (in Lepper's -- and PO's -- view) 
could be run.  Lepper indicated that he wouldn't even require 
a deputy prime minister position for himself (Self-Defense is 
reportedly most interested in the agriculture, environment 
and labor ministries).  The other signatory to the 
now-virtually-dead "Stabilization Pact," the right-wing 
League of Polish Families (LPR), would be shut out of such a 
coalition, in recognition of LPR's "aggressiveness" toward 
PiS in recent weeks and PiS's own strategic interest in 
supplanting that part entirely. 
 
¶3. (SBU) For now (which, with PiS, literally means right now 
-- we may hear a different story tomorrow), Kaczynski and 
Prime Minister Marcinkiewicz are excluding the possibility of 
forcing new elections through the resignation of the PM and 
his cabinet (new elections would be mandated should no other 
candidate get an absolute majority).  With odd logic, both 
explained that the government is doing a good job and there's 
no reason for it to resign; rather, parliament should 
dissolve itself and new elections should be run as soon as 
possible. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Comment: In keeping with its established practice, 
PiS appears to be pursuing at least two aims simultaneously. 
This latest threat of new elections may indeed represent a 
new determination on PiS's part to go for broke and seek an 
absolute majority (or at least knock a few parties out of 
parliament), but it may also be that PiS is aiming at forging 
a more solid -- if temporary -- coalition, as it builds the 
case for re-running the vote.  Following his March 18 
announcement, Kaczynski declared the Stabilization Pact a 
"terrible mistake, perhaps the worst in his life," arguing 
that PiS should have sought spring elections when it had the 
chance.  However the next few weeks play out, it seems that 
early parliamentary elections -- whether in May, this summer, 
or in November, are now rather more likely than not. 
ASHE