VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKO #1734/01 0900721
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 310721Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0392

UNCLAS TOKYO 001734 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: DPJ LEADERSHIP RESIGNS 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President 
Seiji Maehara and DPJ Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama 
announced their resignations on March 31.  This surprise move 
caught DPJ staffers flatfooted.  Maehara and Hatoyama's 
decision was in response to the ongoing turmoil caused by a 
DPJ member's use of a fake e-mail to accuse Liberal 
Democratic Party Secretary General Takebe's son of taking 
money from former Livedoor chairman, Takafumi Horie.  It is 
unclear who will succeed Maehara.  The pool of candidates 
includes Naoto Kan, Kozo Watanabe, Yukio Hatoyama and Ichiro 
Ozawa, with Ozawa and Kan seeming to be frontrunners at this 
point.  End Summary. 
 
Abrupt Resignation 
------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In a surprise move, Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) 
President Seiji Maehara and DPJ Secretary General Yukio 
Hatoyama announced their resignations on March 31.  The 
announcement caught DPJ staffers flatfooted.  Midway through 
a cherry blossom party at the British Embassy also attended 
by Embassy political officers, four DPJ staffers rushed back 
to the office to deal with the new development.  The staffers 
said, before departing, that they had heard that Maehara 
might announce his resignation on a television news program 
at noon. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The Maehara and Hatoyama resignations came after 
weeks of turmoil caused by the "e-mail scandal."  Junior 
lower house lawmaker Hisayasu Nagata in mid-February accused 
Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe's 
son of having accepted 30 million yen from the disgraced and 
jailed former chairman of Livedoor, Takafumi Horie.  As 
evidence, Nagata presented an e-mail that seemed to come from 
Horie ordering the money transfer.  The e-mail, which turned 
out to be a fake, served to reverse the DPJ's growing 
momentum in the Diet.  For the last several weeks, the DPJ 
has been on the defensive in Diet meetings and in the media. 
Even before the resignation announcement, every DPJ staffer 
we spoke with was pessimistic and resigned to the criticism 
from the ruling coalition and media.  One DPJ staffer, 
speaking frankly, shared her opinion that the resignations 
could have been avoided had Nagata voluntarily agreed to give 
up his Diet seat.  Instead, a party disciplinary committee 
suspended him from the party for six months; a Diet 
disciplinary hearing is ongoing.  Nagata, according to media 
reports, will resign his Diet seat. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Adding to the pressure on Maehara are widely 
circulated rumors that party funds were used to pay for the 
fake e-mail.  Shukan Shincho, a tabloid weekly, reported on 
March 30 that Nagata paid one million yen for the e-mail from 
DPJ funds.  The report also said that the money involved 
could have been higher.  Up to 4 million yen may have been 
drawn from party funds for transactions with the creator of 
the phony e-mail, Shukan Shincho asserted. 
 
Next Up 
------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Maehara's poor showing leaves younger candidates at 
a distinct disadvantage.  One Embassy contact suggested that 
the party will seek someone with a "solid track record"  like 
Ichiro Ozawa or Kozo Watanabe to make up for the "amateurish" 
party performance over the e-mail issue.  Vice Speaker of the 
Lower House Takahiro Yokomichi also told us in late February 
-- soon after the e-mail scandal broke out -- that Maehara's 
performance has discredited the idea that the younger 
generation is ready to lead.  Yokomichi predicted that the 
DPJ would opt for a more experienced politician to succeed 
Maehara.  DPJ staffers remained tight-lipped about possible 
successors to Maehara.  The pool of candidates includes Naoto 
Kan, Kozo Watanabe, Yukio Hatoyama and Ichiro Ozawa.  Ozawa 
and Kan seem to be frontrunners. 
 
Selection Process 
----------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) One party staffer anticipated that the DPJ would 
opt for a limited selection process, one in which current DPJ 
Diet members choose their next leader.  A full-blown election 
-- one in which local party chapters cast votes for the next 
party president -- would take too long, the staffer 
explained.  The winner would then finish the rest of 
Maehara's term, which is set to end in September.  This 
staffer was confident that the DPJ would want, at all costs, 
to avoid creating a vacuum during the ongoing Diet session. 
Leaving the party leaderless for too long is often seen as 
"irresponsible" and would leave the DPJ open to further 
criticism. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) An Ozawa-Kan race will highlight the right-left 
split in the DPJ.  Maehara barely squeezed by Kan, a leader 
of the DPJ's left, reformist wing, in the September 2004 
poll, which he won by only two votes. 
DONOVAN