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Viewing cable 06TOKYO1616, DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 03/28/06

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06TOKYO1616 2006-03-28 08:13 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Tokyo
VZCZCXRO3843
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #1616/01 0870813
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 280813Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0209
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA//J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/COMPATWING ONE KAMI SEYA JA
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 7987
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 5352
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 8503
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 5363
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 6536
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1363
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 7541
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 9496
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 16 TOKYO 001616 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST 
DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS 
OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY 
ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 03/28/06 
 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Poll of LDP lawmakers on post-Koizumi candidates; Abe tops 
list; Consumption tax a major issue 
 
(2) Yasukuni issue likely to become major campaign issue for LDP 
presidential race; Abe and his support group changes 
 
(3) Light and shadow of what "Koizumi politics" has created over 
the past five years - Changing society (part 1): Economy has 
recovered but many of the weak left behind due to transitional 
pain, competition 
 
(4) Light and shadow of Koizumi politics-- five years of 
accomplishments (part 2): Regional disparity - urban areas 
enjoying prosperity, while regional communities stagnant 
 
(5) USFJ realignment: Japan should not flinch from negotiating 
relocation cost 
 
(6) Iwakuni and Okinawa plebiscites exhibited need for government 
to offer explanations fairly and squarely; Sources of distrust 
must not be expanded 
 
(7) Beef imports from Mexico, China gradually increasing, though 
BSE risk remains unknown 
 
(8) BSE risk: Structural defects found in US inspection system; 
Safety procedures must be observed to reduce BSE risk 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Poll of LDP lawmakers on post-Koizumi candidates; Abe tops 
list; Consumption tax a major issue 
 
SANKEI (Page 1) (Abridged slightly) 
March 28, 2006 
 
The Sankei Shimbun has conducted an opinion poll of the 408 Upper 
and Lower House members belonging to the Liberal Democratic Party 
(LDP) to find out the trend for the party's presidential election 
in September. The results showed that Chief Cabinet Secretary 
Shinzo Abe was the front-runner for the LDP presidency, 
underpinning his popularity in public opinion polls and in the 
LDP. Many also cited fiscal reconstruction and policy toward Asia 
as major policy issues. Heated debates are likely to occur in the 
post-Koizumi race on both the domestic and diplomatic fronts. 
 
The survey was conducted on March 16-27. Replies came back from a 
total of 161 lawmakers: 136 from the Lower House and 25 from the 
Upper House. The retrieval rate was 39.5%. 
 
Of them, 91 named specific individuals as fit to become the LDP's 
new president. Possible presidential candidates were named in the 
following order: (1) Shinzo Abe by 27 members; (2) former Health, 
Labor and Welfare Minister Bunmei Ibuki (head of the Ibuki 
faction) by 14; (3) Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki (head of 
the Tanigaki faction) by 12; (4) former Chief Cabinet Secretary 
Yasuo Fukuda by 11; (5) Foreign Minister Taro Aso by 10; and (6) 
former LDP Vice President Taku Yamasaki by seven. 
 
Abe has been boasting national popularity in a variety of public 
opinion polls. The results reflected the strong expectations of 
 
TOKYO 00001616  002 OF 016 
 
 
junior and mid-level lawmakers, in addition to the Mori faction 
where he belongs. 
 
The list of policy issues was topped by fiscal reconstruction 
including the consumption tax, with 100 lawmakers citing it. The 
choice offered a glimpse into the lawmakers' strong interest in a 
tax hike, the issue that may affect the future of the 
administration, with the Upper House lection scheduled to take 
place next year. Eighty lawmakers pointed out policy toward Asia, 
including the Yasukuni issue, and 62 people cited the 
continuation and revision of the Koizumi structural reform drive. 
 
Regarding specific policy issues, 64 said the government must 
decide on a consumption tax hike during the term of the next 
prime minister, while 66 said such was unnecessary. The outcome 
clearly reflected the conflict between the government and the 
LDP. 
 
Additionally, 70 people said that the next prime minister should 
visit Yasukuni Shrine, while 36 opposed to a shrine visit. 
 
The list of qualities required of the new leader was topped by 
policy capability with 115 members mentioning it, followed by 
strong presence for elections, abundant experience in politics, 
and top-down leadership. 
 
(2) Yasukuni issue likely to become major campaign issue for LDP 
presidential race; Abe and his support group changes 
 
ASAHI (Page 2) (Full) 
March 28, 2006 
 
Hidenao Nakagawa scrambling for prior settlement 
 
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and potential candidates to 
succeed Koizumi, including Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, 
have stated in chorus that the issue of visits to Yasukuni Shrine 
by prime minister should not be made a major campaign issue in 
the September presidential election of the Liberal Democratic 
Party (LDP). However, the view is now becoming stronger in LDP 
regional chapters that presidential candidates should talk about 
their own Asia policy. Such a local perception is now reflected 
in LDP headquarters. The local move has boosted the momentum of 
former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda, and it has brought 
about a strategic change to Abe and his supporters. 
 
In a meeting on March 22 at the Hotel New Otani in Tokyo, LDP 
Policy Research Council Chairman Hidenao Nakagawa told Chon 
Bichien, director of the reform and liberalization forum, who is 
regarded as a brain-trust advisor to Chinese President Hu Jintao: 
 
"Since Foreign Minister Taro Aso is a Christian, he does not care 
about visiting Yasukuni Shrine. Mr. Abe has not visited the 
shrine since he assumed the chief cabinet secretary's post." 
 
During the meeting, Nakagawa suggested a summit between Prime 
Minister Junichiro Koizumi and President Hu, which the Chinese 
government has refused to hold. He apparently wants to put an end 
to the Yasukuni issue while Koizumi is in office in order to have 
Abe, whom he sees the most suitable person, smoothly succeed 
Koizumi. 
 
Should Asia policy becomes a main campaign issue and if Abe 
 
TOKYO 00001616  003 OF 016 
 
 
mishandles the Yasukuni issue, he might be placed at a 
disadvantage in the presidential race. In consideration of the 
suspended talks between the top leaders of Japan and China, 
Nakagawa is now shifting a focus on a breakthrough of the 
political deadlock. 
 
On Feb. 23, Nakagawa along with New Komeito policy chief 
Yoshihisa Inoue, who also wants to put an end to the Yasukuni 
issue, met in Beijing with Chon. During the meeting, Nakagawa 
said to Chon, "If the Yasukuni issue becomes a main issue in the 
presidential election, the issue will not be resolved as you have 
hoped in consideration of Japanese public opinion." Inoue said, 
"As a result of a summit between Prime Minister Koizumi and 
President Hu, Koizumi's successor will not go to Yasukuni 
Shrine." 
 
Nakagawa and Inoue called on Chon to take a forward-looking 
approach. The two meant that if the environment for a summit were 
prepared, the next prime minister would be able to choose not to 
visit the Shinto shrine. Chon dismissed the suggestion. He 
argued: "Who can guarantee the next prime minister will not pay 
homage at Yasukuni Shrine? Prime Minister has so far visited the 
shrine five times." 
 
The Chinese side cannot easily accept Nakagawa's proposal. 
 
Koizumi stated yesterday, stressing his pet view, "Because I 
visit Yasukuni Shrine, China does not hold a summit. I cannot 
understand this." 
 
Abe cautious about remarks 
 
The focus is now on Abe's movements. Abe is regarded as having 
hawkish foreign and security policies. 
 
At a press conference held immediately after he assumed the chief 
cabinet secretary post, Abe stated, "I have visited Yasukuni 
Shrine as a Japanese national. I would like to continue to keep 
this feeling." A lawmaker, who has close ties with Abe commented, 
"He will visit the shrine even after he becomes prime minister." 
On the advice of business leaders, however, he has refrained from 
clarifying his view since he assumed his post. He recently 
reiterated: "I would like to continue to have the feeling of 
paying my respect to those who died for the nation." 
 
Appearing on a TV Tokyo program on March 24, Abe criticized the 
Chinese leadership, noting, "Not closing summit and foreign 
minister-level communication channels shows the wisdom of a 
mature country. It is wrong to suspend the talks between top 
leaders." Meanwhile, he expressed enthusiasm for repairing the 
strained bilateral ties through technical cooperation in the 
energy area. 
 
Calls have grown in political circles for Abe to make a policy 
shift. 
 
Former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori recently talked about the 
possibility of Abe visiting Yasukuni Shrine: "I think he will not 
visit the shrine. I believe he will make a decision after 
considering the timing, condition and place." 
 
A veteran lawmaker said: 
 
 
TOKYO 00001616  004 OF 016 
 
 
"If he visits the shrine before the presidential race, that would 
become a contentious issue. If he goes there after becoming prime 
minister, his government would be shaken. Therefore, he should 
choose a realistic option." 
 
If Abe weakens his political identity, his popularity may 
decline. A junior lawmaker close to Abe said, "I've heard that he 
would express his determination to visit the shrine when he 
declares his candidacy for the presidential race. Otherwise, he 
will lose his policy imprint. 
 
Foreign Minister Taro Aso, another post-Koizumi contender, 
indicated that he would refrain from visiting Yasukuni Shrine. He 
recently said, "National interests take preference over personal 
interests." 
 
Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, a possible successor to 
Koizumi, remains unclear about his intentions regarding the 
Yasukuni issue. He unsuccessfully sought a meeting with a Chinese 
leader on the sidelines of recent Japan-China finance ministerial 
talks in Beijing. He is eager to improve relations with China. 
 
The existence of Yasuo Fukuda, who has gained public support even 
though he denies he is a candidate, has induced changes in the 
stances of Abe, Aso and Tanigaki. Fukuda has made it clear he 
would repair the strained ties between Japan and China and Japan 
and South Korea. According to the result of Asahi Shimbun's March 
poll, 20% of the respondents said that Fukuda would be the 
suitable person to be the next prime minister, while 47% said Abe 
would be the best for the post. 
 
An anti-Abe lawmaker was happy with the 20% support for Fukuda, 
saying, "It has now become clear that the Yasukuni issue could be 
the top issue in the presidential race. Fukuda may yet be able to 
defeat Abe." 
 
(3) Light and shadow of what "Koizumi politics" has created over 
the past five years - Changing society (part 1): Economy has 
recovered but many of the weak left behind due to transitional 
pain, competition 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Top play and page 2) (Full) 
March 26, 2006 
 
Five years ago, with the country increasingly distrustful of 
politics, the Koizumi administration came into power, winning 
exuberant support from the public. Its political style has 
significantly changed the paradigm of the Japanese society. The 
economy has succeeded in overcoming the long slump that had 
continued since the burst of the economic bubble around 1990. But 
the new competition-oriented policies have given rise to such 
adverse-effects as dividing the society into winners and losers, 
as well as widening the economic gap between big cities and rural 
areas. What was "Koizumi politics" anyway? With the approval of 
the fiscal 2006 budget bill on March 27, political challengers 
who want to succeed Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi are likely 
to pick up steam and start campaigning (for the Liberal 
Democratic Party presidential election scheduled for September). 
Before the campaign starts, the Tokyo Shimbun probes into what 
has actually happened over the past five years. 
 
Balance of reforms 
 
 
TOKYO 00001616  005 OF 016 
 
 
"When will the end of the rainy season be announced?" A somewhat 
out-of-season remark is beginning to come out from some 
government officials at Japan's government offices district, 
Kasumigaseki, Tokyo, since this the time when the cherry trees 
are beginning to bloom. 
 
The Japanese economy, which has suffered from deflation for 
years, is clearly on a recovery track now -- in terms of economic 
indicators and corporate performances. Can Prime Minister Koizumi 
crown the last phase of his tenure before stepping down in 
September by declaring that Japan's departure from deflation? 
This question, in part because of its political implications, is 
drawing attention. 
 
At a time when the economy was worsening, the Koizumi 
administration came into existence waving the banner of 
structural reform. In the fall of 2002, it adopted a tough policy 
aimed at speeding up the disposal of sour bank loans, which had 
crippled the economy. The administration's goal was to halve the 
ratios of nonperforming loans held by major banks by the end of 
March 2005. 
 
Business leaders and politicians were quick to erupt into anger 
against the reforms. In the spring of 2003, the Nikkei Stock 
Average dipped below the 8,000 yen level. Not only there was an 
increase in the number of bankruptcies but the number of suicides 
due to financial difficulties also jumped. Moral decay was 
noticeable, and heinous crimes broke out frequently across the 
country. But the stock market started to rise once the government 
made a decision to inject public money into the Resona Group. 
Leading banks one after the other began to restructure, and 
distinguished firms like Daiei were driven to the verge of 
bankruptcy. But owing to their efforts, they achieved the goal of 
halving their bad loans by the end of March 2005. 
 
Banking institutions are likened to the blood of the economy. 
When their businesses return to normal, the economy, too, comes 
to life. Big banks have recovered their business performances so 
remarkably that they are even being criticized now as making too 
much profit. They are turning around their previous recruitment 
scheme to an offensive one, departing from the long constraint on 
hiring new graduates. 
 
"It's no good to ask for everything from the government." Late 
last year Koizumi made this remark in a speech at a symposium 
hosted by an economic organization. This remark is indeed what 
Koizumi has insisted on in his effort to promote economic 
revitalization. 
 
Koizumi urged firms to dispose of their nonperforming loans using 
their own efforts, so he did not implement any notable economic 
stimulus packages for them. He had no choice but to do so perhaps 
because of fiscal difficulties on the government side, but this 
attitude made corporate executives definitely determined to 
think, "We no longer can depend on the government." 
 
Steel, once a star industry, is enjoying an unprecedented boom 
now. This is the result of their internal reforms by repeating 
restructuring and streamlining. 
 
Looking back on past years, Fumio Sudo, president of the JFE 
Holdings, a leading steel firm that was born by the merger of NKK 
Corp. and Kawasaki Steel in September 2002, remarked: "Prime 
 
TOKYO 00001616  006 OF 016 
 
 
Minister Koizumi continued to signal a message that he would 
destroy old mechanisms. Private firms had the sense of crisis 
that the only way to survive would be self-reliant efforts. His 
message and this sense of crisis were both heading for the same 
direction." On the other hand, there are some who take a cool 
view that it is incorrect to say that the economy has revived 
owing to structural reforms, arguing: "(Mr. Koizumi) happened to 
be in office during the recovery cycle of the economy." But it 
seems possible to judge him as fulfilling his responsibility to a 
certain degree for the consequences of the most challenging task 
for his administration, even though he may be seen as a "lucky 
prime minister" helped by favorable winds, such as special 
procurement demand from China. 
 
"I hope reforms will be carried out without causing pain," 
Koizumi said after inspecting in mid-January a small firm 
manufacturing medical injection needles at Sumida Ward, Tokyo. 
 
Firms that survived the pain have succeeded in restructuring 
their businesses, but firms that were unable to do so were forced 
to go bankrupt. Middle-aged and older unemployed citizens were 
walking the streets. "No growth without reforms" -- under this 
buzzword, some successfully opened up new business opportunities 
to become winners, but there are many losers, too, who even now 
remain unable to get out of the mire. 
 
The strong enjoy more benefits in a society with widening 
disparity; Long struggle for employment after corporate 
restructuring-caused layoffs 
 
"People who are here are still lucky. Those who have abandoned 
their efforts to find a job do not come here." A 58-year-old man 
who we will call Shoichi Takahashi, made this remark at the job 
placement agency, Hello Work Shinjuku, located on the 23rd floor 
of a skyscraper at the West Exit of JR Shinjuku Station, Tokyo. 
Takahashi every morning from Monday through Saturday travels to 
the agency from Kasukabe City, Saitama Prefecture, to look for a 
job. 
 
Six years ago, Takahashi worked at a small firm manufacturing 
mailing machines. He was in charge of quality and production 
control, but he was forced to resign due to the company's layoff 
program. Since then he has been looking for a job. 
 
Finding a job is not easy for people in their fifties like 
Takahashi. In most cases, he has been unable to get interviews 
because he fails to meet the qualifications, for instance, 
because of his lack of experience or his age. 
 
So far Takahashi has twice found a part-time job concerned with 
quality and production control. But after two weeks after working 
as a part-timer, he was forced to quit because he did not get 
along with the regular workers. 
 
Looking back on that, Takahashi said: "Other workers kept away 
from me presumably because I had worked in a similar post in the 
past." 
 
Since then he has been unemployed. With no one to depend on and 
living alone, he ended up on welfare three years ago. Setting 
aside the room rent, he has to live on 70,000 yen per month. 
 
Families on welfare like Takahashi reached 1,051,676 households 
 
TOKYO 00001616  007 OF 016 
 
 
as of December 2005. The number of such families has jumped from 
777,638 households in April 2001, when the Koizumi administration 
came into existence. 
 
Various statistics vividly demonstrate that the public has been 
hard up for money over the past five years since the Koizumi 
cabinet was launched. 
 
The average income of the head of a family (periodic income 
excluding bonuses) was 373,321 yen per month in April 2001, but 
it slipped to 350,099 yen in January 2006. The percentage of 
households that said, "We have no savings," was 12.4% in 2000 but 
in 2005, recorded 23.8%, the highest ever. 
 
Companies are boosting profits, while households are badly off. 
Dai-ichi Life Research Institute Senior Economist Naoki Iizuka 
gives this analysis: "That is the result that companies that were 
unable to pay the personnel costs pursued restructuring." 
 
According to this institute's estimation, the labor distribution 
rate, which indicates how much companies allocate their operating 
income and other profits for the personnel expenses, began 
dropping in the latter half of 2002, the year after the Koizumi 
administration came into being. In the Oct.-Dec. quarter of 2005, 
this rate came to 62.8%, the same level immediately after the 
burst of the economic bubble around 1992. The decline in this 
rate is negatively affecting those who were left out of the 
benefits of the reforms like Takahashi. It is not easy for them 
to rejoin the game. 
 
However, responding to the criticism that (his reforms) are 
widening social disparity, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi 
argues: "(Disparity) is not necessarily a bad thing." "Even 
though the gap is widened, if the minimum level of safety net is 
prepared, it's not that hard for capable persons to get a bigger 
slice of the pie," he adds. 
 
What is felt from Koizumi's remarks is the nature of his reforms 
that in order to attain the goal of economic growth, it is an 
unavoidable choice to give a boost first to the strong and leave 
measures for the weak on the back burner. 
 
Asked about the so-called Koizumi reforms, Takahashi said: "I 
don't agree with them. The disparity is widening. It seems our 
society is getting worse." 
 
(4) Light and shadow of Koizumi politics-- five years of 
accomplishments (part 2): Regional disparity - urban areas 
enjoying prosperity, while regional communities stagnant 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 1) (Excerpts) 
March 27, 2006 
 
Omotesando Hills (a huge multipurpose complex consisting of six 
floors above ground and six below), the newest fashionable 
shopping site in Tokyo, which opened in February, is crowded with 
as many as 60,000 to 70,000 shoppers on weekends. There are 93 
tenant shops and restaurants in the complex. Among the tenants, a 
coffee shop sells a chocolate drink at almost 2,000 yen and 
another shop carries pet bugs, the prices of one species being 
more than 100,000 yen. Despite such expensive products, sales of 
the shopping mall for the first month after the opening exceeded 
1.4 times the estimated level. A spokesman of the management 
 
TOKYO 00001616  008 OF 016 
 
 
office said excitedly, "We can actually feel the economic 
recovery." 
 
The downtown sections of Tokyo have been exploding in a rush of 
redevelopment projects since 2001. Whenever new buildings were 
built, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi visited them -- New 
Marunouchi Building (Marubiru), Shiodome Shiosite and Roppongi 
Hills. 
 
Koizumi said, "Such good buildings are being built and they are 
always crowded with many people. I cannot believe Japan's economy 
is in a slump." 
 
However, there are few shoppers even in the evening shopping in 
the downtown area in front of the US base in the city of Misawa 
in Aomori Prefecture, where the local residents suffer from the 
noise of US aircraft. Many shops in the one-kilometer-long 
shopping street have closed their shutters. 
 
In addition to the continued business slump, the reason is 
because many people go to large-scale retail shops built in the 
suburbs of Misawa City. 
 
As part of fiscal reconstruction, Prime Minister Koizumi has 
drastically cut public works projects since he assumed office. 
Koizumi's fiscal reconstruction drive has hit hard Aomori, a 
prefecture whose economy greatly depends on public projects. 
 
The budget for public works projects for fiscal 2006 in that 
prefecture is only 55%of what it was in 2001 when Koizumi assumed 
office. Another serious problem is the drop in the number of 
private housing starts, including condominiums. 
 
The regional economic slump greatly affects employment. Aomori 
Prefecture's active job opening to applicant ratio for 2005 was 
0.40, marking the lowest rate across the country for four years 
in a row. There are obvious gaps with the large cities such as 
the urbanized Aichi Prefecture's 1.67, and Tokyo's 1.38. Aomori's 
jobless rate was highest for three consecutive years until last 
year. 
 
The Koizumi government has promoted the so-called "trinity 
reform" that would rearrange the taxation and fiscal relations 
between the central and local governments. Regional areas where 
there are a few large companies, however, have suffered from a 
reduction in state subsidies. 
 
The government has reduced its subsidies to Aomori Prefecture by 
37.6 billion yen over the past three years starting in fiscal 
ΒΆ2004. Therefore, the budgets for commerce and industry and 
agriculture-forestry-fisheries industries were drastically cut. 
The prefecture was able to use freely only 400 million yen in tax 
revenues. 
 
While large cities enjoy prosperity, regional areas are suffering 
even worse than ever from the economic slump. 
 
(5) USFJ realignment: Japan should not flinch from negotiating 
relocation cost 
 
ASAHI (Page 15) (Full) 
March 25, 2006 
 
 
TOKYO 00001616  009 OF 016 
 
 
Kazuhisa Ogawa, military analyst 
 
Japan and the United States are now about to enter into the final 
phase of intergovernmental coordination over the realignment of 
US forces in Japan. One of the major issues pending in the talks 
is where to relocate the heliport functions of the US Marine 
Corps' Futenma airfield in Okinawa Prefecture. Another big issue 
is how to share the cost of moving US Marines from Okinawa to 
Guam. Senior officials from the Japanese and US governments met 
early this month. On that occasion, the United States asked Japan 
to pay 75% of the Guam relocation cost estimated at 10 billion 
dollars, or approximately 1.18 trillion yen, in order for the 
Okinawa-based US Marines to move 8,000 troops. However, the 
Japanese government deemed it impossible to foot such a bill in a 
March 16 meeting of cabinet ministers. All eyes are now on h,Q_Qu#BjT^9Qj9!Xfan to shoulder an appropriate burden for it was Japan that 
first proposed alleviating Okinawa's burden of hosting US 
military bases, while securing its alliance with the United 
States. 
 
In April 1996, the Japanese and US governments reached an 
agreement to return Futenma airfield. Since then, I have 
suggested the need for the Japanese government to resolve other 
US military base issues in Okinawa and work out a package of 
drastic economic stimulus measures for Okinawa's self- 
sustainability. In Okinawa, the presence of US Marine ground 
troops has been the object of local resentment. I have advocated 
readying them in the rear for rapid deployment instead of 
stationing them on that island prefecture, while thinking to 
myself that Japan should pay for it in an appropriate way. Their 
transferal to Guam is based on a similar idea. 
 
Even so, what if Japan refuses Uncle Sam? That's always been a 
matter of primary concern to Tokyo. Japanese government officials 
might be thinking to themselves that in that case, the United 
States might even abrogate its security treaty with Japan. If 
they negotiate with their US counterparts while thinking that 
way, Japan would have to pay as much money as the United States 
wants. There's no doubt that the talks will be settled with the 
United States making some concessions. However, if Japan 
underlines its national interests based on objective views as 
noted below, it should be possible for Japan to hold down its 
cost sharing to below 50%. Japan's diplomatic skills will now be 
truly tested. 
 
Even among US allies, Japan is situated in the most strategically 
important place. Washington has always feared that Tokyo might 
call off the bilateral alliance. In fact, the United States has 
always been worried about Japanese sensitivities every time there 
has been a crime or an accident involving US military personnel. 
It's a far cry from its attitude toward other allies in similar 
incidents. Japan has become even more important in the US 
military's global transformation intended to deal with newly 
emerging threats following the 9-11 terrorist attacks. 
 
Aside from how to interpret the scope of the Far East described 
in the Japan-US Security Treaty, the Japanese archipelago has 
capabilities to back up US military operations in the hemisphere 
ranging from Hawaii to the Cape of Good Hope on the southern 
extremity of Africa, and it forms a strategic base like the bases 
 
TOKYO 00001616  010 OF 016 
 
 
on the US mainland. The Japanese people currently shoulder an 
annual burden of approximately 600 billion yen for the stationing 
of US forces in Japan, including 240 billion yen from its 
omoiyari yosan or literally "sympathy budget" slot. This host 
nation support financially buttresses the US forces in Japan. 
 
However, there is an even more important factor for the United 
States. Japan is the only country that can provide strategic 
bases in this hemisphere. US forces deploying on a massive scale 
in this sphere are equipped with state-of-the-art weapons. Only a 
country with industrial, technological, and financial power at 
the same level with the United States can support their presence 
and can remain a strategic linchpin for them in the region. There 
can be no country but Japan to meet that requirement. 
 
In the event Japan calls off the alliance, the United States, 
which cannot expect to secure any alternatives for its strategic 
bases in Japan, would lose about 80% of its power projection 
capabilities. If so, the United States can no longer remain the 
only superpower. Russia and China wouldn't comply with the United 
States. Eventually, the United States will be just a lonely big 
power. 
 
Indeed, Japan has much to lose should it dissolve the alliance. 
In this case, Japan would need to make up for the US military 
presence with its own military capabilities. To do so, Japan will 
have to spend a huge amount of money. Furthermore, such an option 
is even likely to result in isolating Japan in the international 
community. However, the United States will lose much more and can 
no longer remain the world leader. Based on this objective 
perspective, Japan should display its diplomatic strength without 
flinching and should set forth its own standpoints. 
 
(6) Iwakuni and Okinawa plebiscites exhibited need for government 
to offer explanations fairly and squarely; Sources of distrust 
must not be expanded 
 
MAINICHI (Page 7) (Abridged slightly) 
March 22, 2006 
 
By Nakae Ueno, Mainichi Shimbun Western News Department 
 
Iwakuni City, Yamaguchi Prefecture, conducted a plebiscite on 
March 12 in which 87% of the voters, or 51% of all the eligible 
voters, said "no" to a plan to relocate US carrier-borne aircraft 
to the US Marine Corps' Iwakuni Air Station in the city. Seeing 
the results, I said to myself, "Will the local residents be let 
down for the third time?" I have covered Nago, Okinawa 
Prefecture, and Iwakuni since Tokyo and Washington adopted last 
October an interim report on the realignment of US forces in 
Japan. I strongly feel that if the government intends to push 
ahead with US force realignment believing that the Japan-US 
security system has entered a new age, it needs to spell out why 
such is necessary to the people openly and squarely. 
 
Prior to the Iwakuni poll, two local plebiscites took place in 
Japan: one in 1996 in Okinawa over the propriety to realign and 
downsize bases in the prefecture, and another one in 1997 in Nago 
over whether to approve the construction of an alternate heliport 
for Futenma Air Station. In both cases, residents said "no" to 
the US bases. But immediately after the prefectural referendum, 
then Okinawa Gov. Masahide Ota refused the prime minister's order 
to sign papers necessary to force landowners in the prefecture to 
 
TOKYO 00001616  011 OF 016 
 
 
continue to lease land to the US military. Then Nago Mayor 
Tetsuya Higa also announced shortly after the local poll that his 
city would accept the construction of the heliport. Their steps 
drew criticism as conflicting with the popular will. 
 
I got a hunch from then Iwakuni Mayor Katsusuke Ihara's four 
press conferences that the local residents would be "betrayed" 
for the third time. Ihara's statements lacked coherence. He 
described the plebiscite as a golden opportunity for Iwakuni to 
determine its future course, while indicating that the 
responsibility for national defense rested with the central 
government. Asked if Ihara would be able to negotiate with the 
central government during his term of office, he simply said, "I 
will convey local views to the central government." 
 
Ihara resigned from office on March 19, the day before Iwakuni's 
merger with seven neighboring municipalities. Whether to accept 
the carrier-borne unit has been a campaign issue for the April 23 
mayoral election for the new city. Until then, no one will be in 
charge of talks with the central government. Tokyo intends to 
produce a US force realignment final report by the end of this 
month. In other words, Iwakuni's popular will for a dialogue with 
the central government would be left up in the air. What was the 
Iwakuni plebiscite all about? 
 
It is undeniable, however, that the two previous plebiscites 
prevented the base issue, as symbolized by the Futenma 
relocation, from moving forward. 
 
In that context, I find Ihara's strategy somewhat agreeable. 
Ihara, an opponent of the relocation plan, proposed the 
plebiscite to challenge business circles, which were eager to 
accept the relocation plan in anticipation of a hefty economic 
revitalization package from the government. Ihara continued to 
urge residents to go to the polls knowing that chances for 
rejecting the relocation would grow with voter turnout in excess 
of 50 percent. 
 
The Iwakuni Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ICCI) led by 
Tokumitsu Sasagawa adopted a resolution to entice some Atsugi 
base functions to the city conditioned on the construction of an 
additional runway and other factors last June when Iwakuni, the 
city assembly, and the seven neighboring municipalities were in 
agreement to block the relocation. 
 
An ICCI executive blamed then ICCI President Sasagawa's ambition. 
 
In his New Year statement last year, Sasagawa painted a rosy 
picture with Okinawa in mind, saying Iwakuni would benefit 
tremendously from its acceptance of carrier-borne jets. The 
government provided Nago and other municipalities in the northern 
part of Okinawa with economic stimulus measures in return for 
accepting the alternate facility for Futenma Air Station. But the 
efficacy of such measures is not clear. One local head noted, 
"The Okinawa Summit was held, and there were many other projects, 
but all those were short-lived, like a flash in the pan." 
 
Job-creating US bases can be helpful to revitalize local 
economies on one hand, and they could also dampen local 
communities' independent efforts to foster industries on the 
other. The US military's strict restrictions on the height of 
smokestacks and other facilities have driven major plants away 
from the Iwakuni area. A strong sense of lost earnings is looming 
 
TOKYO 00001616  012 OF 016 
 
 
over Iwakuni, where people do not get any military land rent in 
stark contrast to Okinawa. 
 
It is easy for the central government to dismiss the outcome of 
the Iwakuni poll as regional arrogance. But the government should 
give thought to the weight the 51% of the eligible voters 
carries. I believe many people feel uneasy about being embroiled 
in the realignment of US forces in Japan that is said to reflect 
qualitative change in the Japan-US security system. They also 
resent being exposed to greater noise levels. 
 
A man in his 60s who accepts the relocation plan commented, "The 
plebiscite has awakened those citizens who may have had doubts 
about the existence of the base." 
 
If the central government firmly believes that US force 
realignment is necessary for the future of Japan, it should 
explain its reasons sincerely without taking advantage of local 
expectations for economic packages. Otherwise, sources of 
distrust in the Japan-US security system would spread across 
Japan. 
 
(7) Beef imports from Mexico, China gradually increasing, though 
BSE risk remains unknown 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Excerpts) 
March 28, 2006 
 
Mexican and Chinese beef imports have gradually been increasing 
recently. In these countries, even a single case of BSE has not 
been discovered. Some experts, though, warn that the BSE risk of 
Mexican beef is as high as American beef. Japan has imported far 
smaller volumes of beef from Mexico and China than imports from 
Australia, but restaurant chains have begun to use beef imported 
from the two countries. Japan and the US are scheduled to hold 
their expert talks this week on the recent incident in which a 
specified risk material (SRM) was found in a US veal shipment to 
Japan. Isn't there any blind spot in the safety measures our 
nation has taken to prevent BSE at the water's edge? 
 
Japan imported about 460,000 tons of beef in 2005, of which 
410,000 tons came from Australia, accounting for 90% of all. 
Those from Australia and New Zealand make up 98%. 
 
In 2003, when the first case of BSE was found in the US, Japan 
imported 0.2 tons of beef from Mexico. As the ban on US beef 
imports has dragged on, however, the volume increased to 1,800 
tons in 2004 and 6,700 tons in 2005. This figure is 30,000 times 
larger than the 0.2 tons. The volume of imports from China also 
grew from 17 tons in 2003 to 27 tons in 2005. 
 
An industry source made the following analysis on the increase of 
Mexican beef imports: "there certainly is the aspect of covering 
the drops in imports from the US, but the taste of Mexican beef 
is similar to American beef." 
 
Japan has attached the condition of removing SRMs but no 
threshold age for importing beef from Mexico and China, taking 
into consideration the fact that no case of BSE has been reported 
there. 
 
But a prion panel member has begun to suggest: "Mexico and the US 
are connected by land, so the BSE risk of Mexican beef, like 
 
TOKYO 00001616  013 OF 016 
 
 
American and Canadian beef, should not be disregarded." 
 
Immediately after the first case of BSE was announced in the US, 
the US Department of Agriculture set up a team of experts from 
Britain, Switzerland, New Zealand, and other countries to examine 
its safeguard measures. The international survey team issued a 
report with unexpectedly severe comments: "It is impossible to 
draw a line between contaminated districts and clean districts in 
the North American area. It is necessary to work out measures 
that cover all the member countries of the North America Free 
Trade Agreement (NAFTA), including Mexico." A survey team of 
Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) members also noted in its 
report: "About 900,000 head of cattle, beef, and animal feed have 
been traded annually between the US and Mexico." 
 
As if to prove this, beef with the label bearing the mark 
"produced in America" was found in a shipment from Mexico to 
South Korea in July 2004. Following this, South Korea banned beef 
imports from Mexico. 
 
Regarding Chinese beef, as well, there are many uncertain 
factors. According to the international survey team, meat-and- 
bone meal that had been produced in large quantities in the US 
until the first case of BSE was confirmed was exported to China, 
Southeast Asia, and Latin America. Another expert commented: "A 
BSE-infected case could be discovered anytime in China." 
 
Japan requires all cows for human consumption to be tested. The 
US has increased the number of cattle subject to inspection to 
670,000 since June 2004. The number of inspected cows was about 
3,500 in Mexico and about 3,500 in China both in 2004. A virus 
expert said: "(The two countries) are negative about disclosing 
information on infection diseases. The countries are black 
boxes." 
 
The Cabinet Office's Food Safety Commission (FSC) will launch a 
country-specific BSE risk survey. Some give a warning 
particularly about Mexico and China, a member remarking: "No case 
of BSE has been reported, but there may be cattle infected with 
the diseased." Reflecting such a view, a prion panel - chaired by 
Yasuhiro Yoshikawa - will collect data related to production, 
inspection, and distribution, and will examine to see the safety 
of Mexican and Chinese beef. 
 
Since each nation has a different inspection system, it is 
difficult to compare the BSE risk of their beef in an objective 
way. 
 
When Japan resumed US beef imports, Japan attached the conditions 
of importing only beef from cattle 20 months of age or younger 
and removing all SMRs. For Mexican beef, Japan attaches only the 
SMR-removal condition. A survey team member said: "The risk of 
Mexican beef is higher than American beef." Restaurant chains 
have begun to use Mexican or Chinese beef, keeping in mind the 
risk of BSE infection of US beef. Focusing on this recent trend, 
Chairman Yoshikawa said: "We must not ignore BSE risk on humans." 
 
In assessing BSE risk, the FSC needs to obtain data from the 
countries concerned, but it is uncertain whether Mexico and China 
will respond to its call, although the US and Canada positively 
responded in hopes of resuming exports. 
 
An expert panel member was overheard saying: "It would be 
 
TOKYO 00001616  014 OF 016 
 
 
impossible to make assessments due to a lack of data. Whether to 
continue imports (from Mexico and China) even under such a 
situation will be decided not by scientists but by the government 
in charge of risk management." Another member, though, called for 
caution, remarking: "If the risk of BSE remains unknown, it is 
rational to suspend imports." 
 
An Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Ministry source said: "It 
is difficult to ban imports under international rules only for 
the reason of there being suspicions." 
 
Given this, the government has required meat-processing plants in 
Mexico to submit the certificates of origin and has conducted 
sampling tests on more than 5% of imported beef from cattle grown 
in Mexico and carrying rough records. 
 
Restaurant chains that use Mexican and Chinese beef are calling 
on the government to strengthen its quarantine system. A member 
of the Japan Food Service Association commented: "It will be 
impossible to assess BSE risk because (Mexico and China) are 
unlikely to provide data. It is essential for the government to 
thoroughly manage bilateral trade." 
 
A restaurant industry source familiar with meat-eating habits in 
North America assailed: 
 
"US has invested capital and technology in the Mexican cattle 
industry, but the money and technology have not necessarily 
reached the processes of production, processing, and 
distribution. ... It is more important for the government to 
strengthen coastal examinations, instead of adding fuel to public 
concern and distrust by making a fuss, only out of scientists' 
curiosity and without confirming if such assertions are true or 
not." 
 
(8) BSE risk: Structural defects found in US inspection system; 
Safety procedures must be observed to reduce BSE risk 
 
SANKEI (Page 7) (Slightly abridged) 
March 26, 2006 
 
Question by a female reader in Kanagawa Prefecture: 
 
Case after case of BSE infection among Japanese cattle has been 
discovered here. If Japan resumes US beef imports again, is the 
BSE risk higher in the US product than that in Japanese beef? 
Should a person eat beef from a BSE-infected cow contract the 
Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD), who will assume the 
responsibility? 
 
Answer: 
 
Both humans and animals can be infected with BSE. Should a person 
eat specified risk materials (SRM), such as the brain and spinal 
cord, from infected cattle, that person will die of vCJD after 
showing typical clinical symptoms, such as the spongy appearance 
of the brain tissue, disturbance in perception, and walking 
difficulty. As of now, 169 cases of vCJD have been reported 
across the world. Of them, 154 cases occurred in Britain. In 
Japan, the first patient of this disease was confirmed in 2005. 
It was learned that the patient (who died in 2004) had been in 
Britain for about one month around 1989. He is considered to have 
contacted the disease in that country. 
 
TOKYO 00001616  015 OF 016 
 
 
 
Though vCJD is a dreadful disease, it might not be necessary to 
become excessively concerned about catching that disease. The 
Cabinet Office's Food Safety Commission (FSC) estimates that vCJD 
is extremely rare, and a simulation predicts that one person or 
less in Japan might have picked up the disease from eating 
domestic beef. 
 
Scientific assessment difficult 
 
Is there any difference in the level of BSE risk between American 
and Japanese beef? 
 
The Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries Ministry (MAFF) and the 
Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry (MHLW) asked the FSC in May 
2005 to make equivalence assessments of the BSE risk of US and 
Japanese beef. As a result, the government set the following 
conditions for Japan to resume US beef imports: (1) only beef 
from calves 20 months of age or younger should be imported; (2) 
Japan's SRM standards should be adopted, although the US has 
different standards. 
 
The prion expert study group (chaired by Yasuhiro Yoshikawa) has 
finalized a report of recommendations. The report noted that 
since much remains unknown about the quality and volume of data 
on US beef, "it is difficult to make scientific equivalent 
assessments." But it concluded that as long as the conditions 
were met, "the difference in the levels of BSE risk of Japanese 
and US beef is small." 
 
The panel gives this explanation: Even if a cow younger than 20 
months of age is infected with BSE, only a small amount of agents 
causing the disease are accumulated in it; so under the current 
inspection method, the cow will test negative. There is also no 
possibility of the disease being contracted even if one eats 
meat. It concluded that as long as SRM are properly removed in 
the slaughtering process; imported beef will have little BSE risk 
on humans. 
 
This means the risk of US beef imported to Japan based on severe 
import conditions is far smaller than that of beef consumed in 
the US, and the risk of imported beef is almost the same level as 
that of domestic beef. 
 
Based on this view, Chairman Yoshikawa stated: "Should a person 
who has never left Japan ate American beef and then developed the 
disease, the responsibility would rest with those who assessed 
the risk of US beef." He thus referred to the responsibility of 
the expert panel if the case of vCJD is found in Japan. 
Yoshikawa, though, added: "It is inconceivable that such a case 
will happen." 
 
Separated process necessary 
 
Japan reinstated its ban on US beef imports, following the 
discovery of vertebral columns in a US veal shipment to Japan 
this January. Bones were also found in a shipment to Hong Kong in 
March. 
 
The meat-processing facility that shipped the banned material to 
Hong Kong had cleared Japanese government inspection. This 
incident posed questions on not only the US management system but 
also Japan's inspection system. 
 
TOKYO 00001616  016 OF 016 
 
 
 
In response to the US violations in its beef shipments, Chairman 
Yoshikawa commented coldly: "These incidents are apparently the 
United States' unilateral violations of our contract that are on 
a different level from risk assessments by scientists. I am 
dumbfounded by such incidents, rather than feeling outrage." 
 
Some point out that behind the United States' ineligible 
shipments, there are faults in its processing system. In 
exporting beef to Japan, American plants have to carry out meat 
processing based on both Japanese and American. Cattle 30 months 
of age or younger are separated from other cattle first. Later, 
cattle 20 months of age bound for Japan are separated from them. 
In addition, Japan and the US have adopted different SRM 
standards. 
 
Based on the view that many mistakes will unavoidably be made 
under such a processing system, Yoshikawa has proposed these 
preventive measures to be taken by the US: (1) The process of 
cattle bound for Japan and that for the US should be separated; 
and (2) Japan should reopen its market only to beef produced at 
facilities authorized by Japanese inspectors. 
 
Yoshikawa added: "Exercising the right to choose beef upon seeing 
country-of-origin markings is also one of the risk assessments." 
 
SCHIEFFER