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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 12 TOKYO 001587 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST 
DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS 
OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY 
ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 03/27/06 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe proposes setting up panel for 
promotion of second chance for failed executives 
 
(2) Koizumi successor - Study of Shinzo Abe (Part 4): Making 
preparations for dispute on consumption tax, Yasukuni issue 
 
(3) Interview with 1st Joint Staff Chief Massaki: SDF ready for 
terrorist attacks, disasters 
 
(4) Roundtable: Where is Iraq going? 
 
(5) Deployment of X-Band Radar in Tsugaru: Residents fear that 
Shariki base will become target of enemy missiles; Defense Agency 
underscores difference from X-rays 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Chief Cabinet Secretary Abe proposes setting up panel for 
promotion of second chance for failed executives 
 
SANKEI (Page 5) (Excerpts) 
March 24, 3006 
 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe revealed in a press conference 
on March 23 a plan to set up a panel made up of bureau director- 
level officials from ministries and agencies to discuss the 
creation of a social framework in which failed entrepreneurs can 
try again to reenter the market. Abe would head the advisory 
panel. As a measure to respond to criticism that the Koizumi 
structural reform drive created social disparity and had its dark 
as well as light side, the government intends to incorporate the 
panel's suggestions in its "big-boned reform policy guidelines" 
to be worked out in June. Many in political circles think that 
Abe will make the ideas that come out into a part of his campaign 
pledges for the upcoming presidential election of the Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP). 
 
Asked by reporters about why he formed the panel, Abe responded 
firmly: 
 
"Fair competition can boost the economy and add to Japan's 
strength. Sometimes we win and sometimes we lose. It is not 
desirable for a permanent class of winners and losers to become 
entrenched. It is important to create a society in which people 
who fail can have another chance to try again." 
 
Creating a society that offers a second chance at success means 
placing more importance on an equal opportunity than on the 
equality of results. In turn, it means a "counterattack" against 
forces in the ruling camp that have been calling for correcting 
social disparity. 
 
Although there are many problems to tackle in order realize his 
goal, Abe intends to hold a first meeting of the panel as early 
as next week and come up with an interim report before the end of 
May. He proposed the plan to Prime Minister Koizumi on March 22. 
Koizumi reportedly said on approving it, "It's a good idea, so, I 
want you to do your best." 
 
Abe has been skeptical about postwar Japan's policies of 
democratic "equality" (i.e., equal results instead of equal 
 
TOKYO 00001587  002 OF 012 
 
 
opportunity).  He has, therefore, long cherished the idea of a 
"second chance" as part of his political belief since he was 
elected to the Diet. During his tenure as secretary general of 
the LDP, Abe worked hard to change the way of the LDP officially 
introducing candidates in national elections. At the time, he 
used the phrase: "We need to establish a system under which 
everybody can challenge politically again and again," as the 
keyword of a reform of the party. When he met last December with 
Carlos Ghosn, president and the CEO of Nissan Motor Co., he 
enthusiastically told him: "A society in which the effort pays 
off will enrich a country. It is the political responsibility to 
create a society in which those who have failed can have the 
chance to try again." 
 
Regarding the Team Japan's victory in the World Baseball Classic, 
Abe repeatedly said, "We should never give up. Team Japan showed 
us that as long as we refuse to give up, we will always have 
another chance." 
 
All the more because the idea seems to be a key notion in his 
forming an administration, it is now causing a stir in the LDP. A 
mid-level LDP lawmaker, who has close ties with Abe, commented: 
 
"The idea reflects Mr. Abe's political identity. But I did not 
think he would have revealed it so soon. He might be trying to 
erase the image of his being weak in economic and domestic 
affairs." 
 
A former cabinet minister said, "Since the next government will 
continue to focus on the "big-boned guidelines" policy, I assume 
that he wanted to place his own policy imprint in the 
guidelines." 
 
(2) Koizumi successor - Study of Shinzo Abe (Part 4): Making 
preparations for dispute on consumption tax, Yasukuni issue 
 
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Excerpts) 
March 23, 2006 
 
Shinzo Abe, who is known as a political hawk, also has been 
working hard as a member of the social welfare-policy clique in 
the Diet while serving as Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) Social 
Affairs Department head and other key posts. 
 
The LDP, the Social Democratic Party, and the New Party Sakigake 
inaugurated the Murayama administration in 1994. In this 
government, Abe was picked as a member of its social welfare 
project team. This gave Abe his start in social welfare-related 
activities. 
 
"You assume the post, Mr. Abe," said Junichiro Koizumi, who 
having already served as health and welfare minister, declined a 
turn at the lesser post and recommended that freshman lawmaker 
Abe get it instead. Abe's grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, started 
work on launching national healthcare and pension systems. The 
systems were introduced in 1961, but Kishi was forced to step 
down in 1960 in the aftermath of the struggle over the Japan-US 
Security Treaty. So Abe took the plunge and accepted the big role 
as team leader. 
 
In 1999, Abe engaged in negotiations with the Japan Medical 
Association over a revision of the nation's medical treatment fee 
system. These experiences were of great help for him to unify 
 
TOKYO 00001587  003 OF 012 
 
 
views in the government over a reform of the medical system late 
last year. He attends a weekly meeting of the "parliamentary 
group to work out a sustainable social security system" - 
composed of mid-ranking and junior lawmakers - almost every week. 
He has stressed the necessity of reforming the pension, medical, 
and nursing systems in a comprehensive way. 
 
Spending cuts first 
 
On the controversial issue of whether to raise the consumption 
tax rate, Abe's assertion is that cutting spending should come 
first before the consumption tax is hiked. He draws a line with 
Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, who proposed submitting bills 
to raise the consumption tax to the Diet in 2007. 
 
Abe also has backed administrative reforms, such as a second 
round of reforms of the central government offices and further 
strengthening of the functions of the Prime Minister's Office. He 
believes these tasks the next administration should tackle on a 
top priority basis, as part of an effort to form "small 
government." 
 
Abe never forgets to cite the plan to raise by fiscal 2009 the 
share of the burden on the national treasury of pensions from one 
third to half the total payment. Some observers speculate that 
Abe is considering the possibility of submitting related bills to 
the Diet in 2008, while carefully watching moves for spending 
cuts and economic trends. 
 
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) lifted its monetary-easing policy on 
March 9. Abe opposed the new policy to the last minute. Even 
after the BOJ came up with the policy-switch decision, Abe has 
continued his efforts to discourage the BOJ from immediately 
abandoning its zero interest-rate policy. Should the economy fall 
into a flat spin, the current administration will unavoidably be 
at a disadvantage. Economic stagnation could also block the way 
to his assumption of the prime minister's post. The wrangling 
between Abe and the BOJ is likely to continue for a while. 
 
Importance placed on results 
 
In revising the Constitution, Abe wants Japan to be allowed to 
use the right to collective self-defense. He also emphasizes the 
need to strengthen Japan's role in helping to stabilize the 
international community. Even while recognizing the difficulty of 
immediately placing the task of revising the Constitution on the 
political agenda, he thinks that if Japan and the US increase 
their interdependence under their security arrangements, it will 
become possible for Japan to offer its views on even ground with 
the US. 
 
The image of a state that Abe has envisioned for Japan is a 
"country that can be proud of its history and culture." Many 
lawmakers from the ruling and opposition camps look favorably on 
such a conservative stance. 
 
Abe has no intention to avoid disputes over Asia policy. China 
has sent a signal that "if Koizumi's successor refrains from 
visiting Yasukuni Shrine, Japan-China relations will head for 
normalization." Abe, however, instructed the Foreign Ministry to 
map out a strategy toward China on the premise that the prime 
minister will continue to visit the shrine. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001587  004 OF 012 
 
 
Abe said: "To pursue national interests, it is necessary to adopt 
a strategic approach. Politicians must be realists." Producing 
results is an essential matter for Abe. 
 
(3) Interview with 1st Joint Staff Chief Massaki: SDF ready for 
terrorist attacks, disasters 
 
NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full) 
March 25, 2006 
 
On March 27, the Self-Defense Forces will integrate its three 
branches under a joint chain of command. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun 
interviewed Joint Staff Council (JSC) Chairman Hajime Massaki, 
61, who will become the first chief of the Joint Staff Office 
(JSO) of the Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces (GSDF, 
MSDF, and ASDF) to hear his views on the aim of SDF integration 
and challenges. 
 
-- Why does the SDF need to integrate its three services? 
 
Massaki: In the event of major disasters, the GSDF, MSDF, and 
ASDF will have to respond immediately and effectively. In order 
for the three SDF services to do so, it's only natural to ready 
them. It will take time to respond if the GSDF, MSDF, and ASDF 
separately assist the Defense Agency director general in that 
event. And now, we must integrate their respective chains of 
command to be ready at any time for missile attacks and other 
newly emerging threats. 
 
-- At the time of the Hanshin (Osaka-Kobe) earthquake, the SDF 
services were out of step in their disaster relief operations. 
 
Massaki: Indeed, we could do more from the perspective of 
effective operations. Meanwhile, at the time of the 2004 Sumatra 
offing earthquake, we employed MSDF vessels to sealift GSDF 
members and used GSDF helicopters for rescue operations. That 
became a touchstone for the SDF integration. 
 
-- Will the SDF integration affect the SDF's partnership with US 
forces? 
 
Massaki: We'll also integrate out points of contact with US 
forces, so our bilateral alliance will be more credible. 
 
-- What's up ahead of the SDF integration? 
 
Massaki: For the time being, under the JSO's command, we need to 
facilitate the deployment of GSDF members in Iraq and the 
deployment of MSDF vessels in the Indian Ocean. Each of the three 
SDF services has a history of 50 years. In addition, they also 
have different cultures. We should not just mix them up but 
should make the most of what they have. In that image, we'd like 
to take time. It's also critical to team up with other government 
ministries and agencies. There's also something the Defense 
Agency alone cannot do. We'd like to ready ourselves for 
political decisions. 
 
(4) Roundtable: Where is Iraq going? 
 
ASAHI (Page 15) (Full) 
March 16, 2006 
 
On March 20, Iraq will be at three-year mark since the war 
 
TOKYO 00001587  005 OF 012 
 
 
started. Amid bloodshed and turmoil, Iraq somehow managed to 
elect state parliamentarians for its recovery and entry into the 
community of democratic nations. However, Iraq has now become a 
theater of intensifying conflicts involving Islamic sects. Such a 
situation prevents Iraq from launching a permanent government, 
with foreign security troops about to pull out. As it stands, the 
situation in Iraq is growing even murkier than before, with 
uncertainties looming ahead. The Asahi Shimbun held a roundtable 
of three experts on Iraq to discuss its future course: Keiko 
Sakai, a professor at the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies; 
Fumiaki Kubo, a professor at the University of Tokyo; and 
Kunihiko Miyake, representative of the AOI Institute of Foreign 
Policy Studies. 
 
Iraq now 
 
-- What's your view of Iraq now? 
 
Sakai: There are three points to note. First, there is now 
spreading armed clashes involving the Iraqi people themselves. In 
the past, local people resorted to violence to stir up religious 
conflict. However, this February's bombing of a mosque in Samala 
touched off a chain reaction of armed conflicts across that 
country. The clerics could no longer control the perpetrators, or 
their own control system didn't work in itself. So the situation 
is now serious. Second, Islamic groups are on the rise. Last 
year, in January and in December, Iraq held elections for its 
national assembly. But secular candidates couldn't get enough 
votes. In the meantime, Islamic groups have now come to stay with 
their overwhelming power. From now on, their emergence would 
become a focus along with situations in neighboring countries, 
such as the rise of Hamas in the Palestinian Authority. And 
third, I can't ignore Iran's intervention. 
 
Kubo: The US Bush administration wants to pull out some of those 
US troops in a visible way before this November's off-year 
election and leave security jobs in the hands of reinforced Iraqi 
forces and local police. But the Shiites and the Sunnis are 
intensifying the conflict. So I wonder if Iraqis can make it in 
such a situation when such things are happening. They face a new 
challenge. 
 
Miyake: In January last year, Iraq held an election for its 
national assembly. In that election, the turnout of voters was 
over 8 million. But in the next election that took place in 
December last year, a total of 12 million people-or nearly 80% of 
that country's voting population-went to the polls to cast their 
votes. The political elite of that country used to be a governing 
council of 25 members picked by the US-led occupation forces. But 
now, that country's poverty-stricken groups, including Sadr's 
supporters, are somehow taking part in the political process. 
This situation is a far cry from being a civil war, that is, 
armed insurgents try to secure the legitimacy of governance. In a 
civil war, the Sunni people will suffer the worst. In that case, 
(autonomy-minded) Kurds will enjoy themselves. However, Iraq has 
yet to have its own full-fledged security forces. So there may be 
no end to the rat race going on with the resistance forces. 
 
-- What's your view of the deployment of US troops in Iraq? Is 
Iraq recovering public security and making progress in the 
political process? 
 
Kubo: The present-day situation in Iraq is often compared with 
 
TOKYO 00001587  006 OF 012 
 
 
the Vietnam War. However, the government of South Vietnam, which 
the United States backed in those days, had almost no democratic 
legitimacy. Besides, people in South Vietnam distanced themselves 
from the then government. The Iraqi government now is of 
qualifying legitimacy in terms of average democracy in the world. 
 
Miyake: Iraq is now undergoing a historic experiment. From the 
start, that country's border is a man-made product. Kurdish 
people live in northern districts, Sunni people in the middle 
part, and Shiite people in southern districts. Iraq has more than 
20 million people, and the Iraqi people were under the rule of 
autocracy. This pattern of governing is now back to where it 
started. In the history of Iraq, the ruler threatened to kill 
political opponents. There are still many people being killed. 
However, Iraq has never held such talks to make political 
decisions. The United States' deployment of 160,000 troops in 
Iraq will not lead to the recovery of public security in that 
country. But if the United States discontinues its troop 
deployment there, the local situation will go from bad to worse. 
When I was in Iraq as a diplomat, the multinational force used to 
be the main target of attack. But now, the resistance forces 
target Iraqis. They have lost public support, so they're now 
being isolated and weakened. In such a situation, it would be 
better at this point to continue the deployment of US troops in 
Iraq. 
 
-- What made Shiite and Sunni peoples intensify their conflicts? 
 
Sakai: They long lived together in Iraq. But there is an Islamic 
political party that upholds the ideology of Shiite people. That 
political party's militia now controls the national security 
organization that should be neutral. Sunni people think the 
Islamic Shiite group is using force to control the Sunni people. 
So the Sunnis are going against the Shiites. In addition, the 
United States created the governing council after the war to help 
reconstruct Iraq. In that process, the United States created a 
political elite in the form of such-and-such persons from the 
Shiites and from the Sunnis. There's no denying that this also 
provoked the Sunnis. In Iraq, the Kurdish people have long 
desired autonomy. However, they've never had a political party of 
their own because the Shiites and the Sunnis have already had 
their own to govern within the framework of their regime. This is 
also a primary factor explaining their clashes. In such a 
situation, the United States does not want to be involved in any 
local political party. That's why US forces can do nothing about 
their conflict. In the meantime, Ayatolla Ali Shistani called for 
state-controlled security as a religious authority of the 
Shiites. But now, even Shistani has no choice but to have his own 
bodyguards. 
 
US and Mideast democratization 
 
-- How is the US reacting? 
 
Kubo: In the United States, Iraq policy has now become a major 
political issue. That's true. When the Iraq war started, an 
overwhelming majority of the Americans supported the Iraq war. In 
the spring of 2004, however, public opinion in the United States 
was split over that war, with the even proportions of those 
supporting the Iraq war and those thinking it was wrong. And now, 
their proportions have changed places. At the same time, 
President Bush's approval rating also went down, now hanging low 
at 34%. I can say the US is paying a big political cost for the 
 
TOKYO 00001587  007 OF 012 
 
 
Iraq war. Even so, the Democratic Party, now on the opposition 
bench, is also in a dilemma. They know it's not good enough to 
only target antiwar people in their campaigning for the 2008 
presidential election. For one thing, the United States is 
fighting against terrorism. Many of the Americans want the Bush 
administration to take an even stronger stand against terrorists. 
That's why. 
 
-- When it comes to interventions from outside, Al Qaeda and Iran 
are reportedly pulling the wires behind the scenes. 
 
Miyake: In Iraq, there are diehard survivors from the former 
Baath party, swearing loyalty to former President Hussein, as 
well as fanatical militants. Moreover, in Iraq, there are also Al 
Qaeda members and other foreign insurgents. They would continue 
their activities in Iraq. But it looks like they're now wide 
apart from the Iraqi people and they're becoming weak. The 
political situation in Iraq now is close to the Liberal 
Democratic Party's one-time factional struggle. They at least 
understand that it's in their common interest to keep up the 
current political system. In the meantime, the biggest problem to 
Iraq is its nuclear development program. The United States is 
standing against Iran's nuclear program. Iraq is now being driven 
into a tight corner in the International Atomic Energy Agency 
(IAEA). They know the United States would next target their 
country after Iraq becomes stabilized, so I think they're 
maneuvering in Iraq. They probably want Iraq to remain in turmoil 
as far as they're not affected, and they want to be left alone. 
That's probably the best possible situation for them. 
 
-- What about other neighboring countries? 
 
Miyake: Sunnis form a majority in Arab countries along the Gulf. 
They have a very strong fear of Iraq that is ruled by Shiites. 
They also don't want Iran to gain power under the rule of 
Shiites. For the Gulf states, Iraq is a buffer and the present- 
day situation is best. 
 
-- President Bush used the words "Islamic radicalism" in his 
strategy to contain enemies. 
 
Kubo: He wouldn't compromise on Iran's nuclear development. 
People called "neoconservatives" were optimistic about the Iraq 
war. One of them said Iraqis would welcome American troops as 
liberators. So they've now lost their influence. But they have 
not completely disappeared from the administration. They would 
remain influential in the United States' foreign policy, for the 
United States is taking a hardline stance toward China and Syria. 
 
-- What about the Middle East's democratization? How do you think 
the secular government of Iraq will turn out? 
 
Sakai: It would be a centralized governance structure and Iraq 
would become an Islamic state. Otherwise, it would go for 
decentralization while remaining secular. At present, there are 
struggles between two political groups, one opting for secular 
decentralized governance and the other for Islamic centralized 
governance. In either case, the current secular centralized 
government would substantially change. 
 
Miyake: They say they have only to create a secular democracy. 
That's their postwar approach in Iraq. But it's no good to talk 
about secularism or democracy to people who devote their lives to 
 
TOKYO 00001587  008 OF 012 
 
 
their god. I think there's a hint in the idea of Christian 
democracy in Europe. Religious people must not be excluded. Iraqi 
people will have to acquire experience to establish their own 
Islamic democracy and govern in a realistic way, or the Middle 
East can't be democratized, I think. 
 
Sakai: Basically, I agree to that view. The more elections they 
have in Iraq, the more elections Islamic groups win. That's clear 
in the past two years. It's no use dreaming of a secular 
governance structure. There's no choice but to think of how well 
to get along with Islamic groups on the rise. When taking a look 
at Shiite political groups now, there's a pragmatic Islamic 
political party mainly consisting of elite people, and there's a 
group that has almost no pragmatism like Sadr's supporters but 
has strong clout on the masses. The two groups are fifty-fifty in 
their balance of seats. This situation is a factor of trouble in 
electing their prime minister. 
 
Kubo: Even in the Middle East, there's a country like Iran that 
restricts people's candidacy for elections. In the case of 
Palestinians, they don't have such restrictions. There are such 
important differences. Even after a democratic election, the 
governing party may change rules to remain in office. That's 
undeniable, indeed. However, the important thing is to maintain 
democratic rules. That's the starting point of mature democracy. 
 
-- The US appears returning to multilateralism in its relations 
with Europe. 
 
Kubo: In terms of multilateralism, there are important criteria, 
such as the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the 
International Criminal Court (ICC), and the Kyoto Protocol. 
However, it's inconceivable that the United States will turn out 
to be a multilateralism-oriented country under the Bush 
administration. The United States may think over the deadlocked 
situation in Iraq. But Iraq and Iran are in quite different 
circumstances. It's not a fundamental change in the United 
States' foreign policy. We should take it as a limited move 
aiming in part to repair the United States' relations with 
Europe. For example, the United States recently agreed with India 
to extend technological cooperation to India in the area of 
atomic power generation. Such cooperation, however, could 
unilaterally undermine the nuclear nonproliferation regime. In 
the end, the United States factored in what's in its national 
interests. That's probably their judgment. I guess that the 
United States deemed it important to strengthen its economic ties 
with India or otherwise to check China and not to isolate India 
as a democratic country. 
 
SDF evaluation 
 
-- Then, what's your evaluation of Japan's deployment of Self- 
Defense Forces personnel in Iraq? 
 
Sakai: According to findings from public opinion surveys 
conducted in Samawah and other local districts around the SDF 
camp, there are no negative reactions to the SDF presence. At the 
same time, however, local people also don't think the SDF 
presence there has dramatically improved the livelihood of local 
people. Nevertheless, they want the SDF to stay on. They're 
probably aware that Japan's assistance with its deployment of SDF 
troops supports their daily lives. If that's the case, the SDF 
deployment there might have had little to do with the 
 
TOKYO 00001587  009 OF 012 
 
 
effectiveness of Japan's aid to that country. In other words, it 
might be better for Japan to only provide official development 
assistance (ODA) from the start. 
 
Miyake: Japan's deployment of SDF troops in Iraq and Japan's 
assistance to that country with ODA projects have nothing to do 
with the United States. Japan demonstrated its intention to 
support Iraq. It's wrong to separate ODA projects and SDF 
activities in this way or that way when talking about Japan's 
contribution to Iraq. The Japanese government decided to carry 
them out as one. There's an argument raising a question about 
continuing the SDF deployment. At this point, however, there's no 
information enough to decide to recall the SDF troops. Even Prime 
Minister Koizumi probably can't make such a decision. There's no 
choice but to wait and see the situation for a while. 
 
Kubo: There are various opinions among the Iraqi people, too. 
However, if their democratic and legitimate government asks the 
SDF to stay on or appreciates Japan's cooperation, then we should 
probably think in a positive way. We should not evaluate the SDF 
from the aspect of how many people the SDF hired or how many 
buildings the SDF created. Instead, we should evaluate the SDF 
from the perspective of the fact that Japan demonstrated its 
willingness to assist with Iraq's nation rebuilding. 
 
-- How do you think Japan should get along with Iraq from now on? 
 
Sakai: The local image of Japanese technology is probably high. 
That's what shows Iraqi people's expectations for Japan. Iraqi 
people are asking for economic aid, but only the political 
process is going ahead. So their frustration is growing stronger. 
The question is how to meet their expectations for Japan's aid in 
the areas of infrastructure construction and education. That's 
probably the point. 
 
Iran policy involved 
 
Daiji Sadamori, Asahi Shimbun 
 
How will future historians depict the Iraq war? Will they regard 
the Iraq war as a 'lost war' for the United States that further 
destabilized the Middle East although the United States, burning 
with vengeful thoughts for the 9-11 terrorist attacks, could not 
satisfy itself with the Afghan war alone and went so far as to 
topple even the Hussein regime, an enemy of long standing? Will 
they otherwise give high marks to the Iraq war as what paved the 
way to the Middle East's democratization and strengthened the 
United States' unipolar structure as the only superpower in the 
long run although the United States' prestige was called into 
question with its largest military strategy since the Vietnam 
War? 
 
In the roundtable, the three experts were split in opinion about 
Iraq that still remains unable to find a way out of its bogged- 
down situation. That is because Iraq is at a risk for a civil war 
like the former Yugoslavia and Lebanon but the country's 
democratic political process has not died out. 
 
The international community's desired future image of Iraq is 
that Iraq will have a government of national unity that overcomes 
the barriers of religious sects and ethnic groups and will 
rebuild itself into a nation that is stabilized enough for the US- 
and UK-led multinational force to pull out. Iraq's national 
 
TOKYO 00001587  010 OF 012 
 
 
assembly will meet March 16 to establish a legitimate government. 
It is three months after its election held late last year. 
However, there would be struggles for the posts of oil, defense, 
and home affairs ministers and other key cabinet posts. It would 
not be easy for Iraq to inaugurate its new government. 
 
US President Bush, now hovering low in his approval ratings at 
home, and his administration are still optimistic about the Iraqi 
situation. However, how long can the Bush administration remain 
tough against Iran, which has influence on Iraq, over its nuclear 
development issue? 
 
The United States once attempted in vain to contain both Iran and 
Iraq. How will the United States settle its showdown with Iran? 
The Iraq war, in its settlement, will involve such a factor, too. 
 
(5) Deployment of X-Band Radar in Tsugaru: Residents fear that 
Shariki base will become target of enemy missiles; Defense Agency 
underscores difference from X-rays 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Pp.29-30) (Abridged) 
March 24, 2006 
 
Although Okinawa Prefecture seems to be stealing national 
attention due to the planned relocation of the US Marine Corps' 
Futenma Air Station, there is another essential site elsewhere in 
the country connected to the realignment of US forces in Japan. 
It is Tsugaru City, Aomori Prefecture. The US military has 
decided to deploy in Tsugaru an X-Band radar, designed to detect 
and track ballistic missiles, as part of the missile defense (MD) 
system. This article examines local reactions to MD, which has 
been likened to hitting a fired bullet with another fired bullet, 
according to experts. 
 
On the afternoon of March 22, the Tomiyachi community center in 
Tsugaru was packed with some 90 local business leaders. Before 
 
SIPDIS 
the local audience, officials from the Defense Agency and the 
Sendai District Defense Facilities Administration Bureau 
repeatedly said, "Obtaining your understanding is essential for 
Japan's national defense." Their explanation elicited questions 
from attendees, such as, "Why did you have to pick Shariki?" and, 
"Is it all right for fishermen to be showered with radio waves 
every day?" 
 
Located in Tsugaru in the northeastern Aomori Prefecture facing 
the Sea of Japan, the Shariki district is a quiet farming village 
known for its delicious melons and other products. Fishing is 
also a main industry. But since the Air Self-Defense Force's 
Shariki detachment base was established in 1980, national defense 
has been a matter of concern for the residents of Shariki. 
 
On March 3, the Defense Facilities Administration Agency unveiled 
a plan to deploy the X-Band Radar at the Shariki base. The 
announcement was followed by the Aomori prefectural government's 
decision not to conduct a plebiscite. Feeling uneasy, residents 
have launched a group opposing the X-Band Radar led by Shozo 
Narita, chairman of the Tomiyachi association. The group has 
repeatedly asked DFAA for a briefing session. 
 
What is the X-Band Radar? Newly developed by the US military, it 
is designed to detect and track ballistic missiles heading toward 
countries that are friends and allies of the United States. 
Composed of a container-like unit weighing 30 tons or so, the 
 
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radar is easily mobile and is capable of emitting radio waves to 
detect objects. 
 
The Defense Agency plans to deploy the unit at the Shariki base 
this summer or later against missiles from North Korea and China. 
 
Having heard rumors, local residents fear the radio waves' 
hazardous effects on humans and damage to agricultural and marine 
products. One resident said apprehensively, "Shariki may become a 
target of enemy missiles. Public security may be disturbed by US 
troops stationed here." 
 
To appease local concerns, a DFAA official explained: 
 
"Although it is called the X-Band, it is different from X-rays 
and is safe. The deployment will help increase Japan's deterrent 
capability against armed attacks. The agency will urge the US 
military to maintain high discipline. DFAA will station its 
officials on a regular basis as counselors." 
 
Mitsuo Narumi, 76, a Tomiyachi association executive, commented 
in a strong tone: 
 
"Until recently, we were left in the dark about the plan, on 
which the government must have decided a long time ago. The 
government is trying to steamroll the plan by ignoring local 
residents." 
 
A cabinet decision was made in late March 2003 to introduce the 
US-led MD system. The government plans to begin deploying the X- 
Band Radar in late fiscal 2006 in the hope it will play an 
important role in missile defense. 
 
But why was Aomori Prefecture picked? 
 
Military analyst Motoaki Kamiura takes this view: 
 
"In 1998, a North Korean ballistic missile flew over the Tohoku 
region and splashed into waters off Sanriku. If North Korea is to 
launch a ballistic missile at a direction of the United States, 
it has only the technology to fire it eastward. For this reason, 
the Defense Agency seems to have picked Aomori to prepare against 
another missile from North Korea." 
 
It is also greatly significant to deploy the X-Band Radar at an 
ASDF base instead of a US military facility. 
 
Military affairs commentator Osamu Inagaki noted: 
 
"Until now, cooperative relations existed in the form of the SDF 
providing the US military with intelligence on submarines 
collected by P-3Cs. The future image is that SDF personnel will 
work side by side with US military personnel. It will be part of 
the transformation for the efficient integrated operations of the 
SDF and US forces in Japan." 
 
But the integrated operations of Japanese and US forces run the 
risk of integrating some residents into the US military, as well. 
Inagaki explained the fear of residents, saying, "Missile defense 
requires both ballistic missiles and a radar, and an enemy is 
expected to take aim at the radar." 
 
Missile defense may rock Japan's basic security principles. Under 
 
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the SDF Law, Japan is allowed to intercept incoming ballistic and 
other missiles only. It is extremely difficult to determine if a 
missile is headed for Japan. Shooting down a missile with an 
unpredictable destination may constitute the exercise of the 
right of collective self-defense, which is prohibited under the 
Constitution. 
 
Kamiura raised questions, saying: 
 
"A launched missile changes its direction to the east after the 
boost phase. It's possible to determine where it is headed from 
its altitude and its angle. But it takes only about 10 minutes 
for a North Korean missile to land in Japan. It's actually 
impossible to selectively determine to intercept a Japan-bound 
missile and stay away from one headed for Guam." 
 
A lack of discussion on the right of collective self-defense 
 
Aomori prefectural assemblyman Hidehiko Watanabe of the Social 
Democratic Party noted in an angry tone: 
 
"Residents fear the radar's possible adverse effects on humans 
and the environment. The US military and the Japanese government 
are trying to deploy the radar without making sufficient efforts 
to dispel their concerns. The residents are becoming distrustful 
of such an approach." 
 
Kamiura also expressed apprehensions about the government's 
approach of pushing ahead with the plan without resolving 
problems: 
 
"The government is trying to move on to the deployment of the X- 
Band Radar and the operation of MD without discussing at the Diet 
what to do with the question of exercising the right of 
collective self-defense under the Constitution. Japan would end 
up as a strategic stronghold for the US military." 
 
Last October, Tokyo and Washington produced an interim report on 
US force realignment requiring Japan to complete local 
coordination by the end of this month. 
 
"The government underestimated Aomori because unlike Okinawa and 
Iwakuni, we didn't voice our opposition to the X-Band Radar," 
Watanabe said angrily. 
 
The Defense Agency is scheduled to brief the Aomori prefectural 
assembly today and Tsugaru residents tomorrow to seek their 
understanding. Chairman Narita of the group opposing the X-Band 
Radar commented: "Explanations have been insufficient. We will 
file a petition and take other actions." 
 
Tsugaru city assemblyman Katsuhide Shirato from the Shariki 
 
SIPDIS 
district said: 
 
"We will boil down conditions, such as regular health checkups. A 
signature-collecting campaign may follow the government's refusal 
of our requests." 
 
SCHIEFFER