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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 14 TOKYO 001149 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST 
DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS 
OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY 
ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 03/03/06 
 
 
TOKYO 00001149  001.3 OF 014 
 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Spot poll on email fiasco 
 
(2) Tasks to clear before removing ban on US beef imports: 
Interview with Masahiko Yamada, agriculture minister in 
Minshuto's "next cabinet"; Japan's inspection, approval to be 
made precondition 
 
(3) Prefectural assembly to meet Mar. 24 on X-band radar 
installation at Shariki 
 
(4) Budget bill clears Lower House; What will become of remaining 
half of Diet session? Given breathing room, LDP already in mode 
for party presidential election; Three potential successors to 
Koizumi come up with original policies 
 
(5) Is paying homage at Yasukuni Shrine a matter of the heart? 
Examining the prime minister's constitutional view from 
perspective of separation of politics and religion 
 
(6) Self-destruction of Minshuto (Part 1): Immatureness exposed 
 
(7) Self-destruction of Minshuto (Part 2): President Maehara 
manages the party as if he is still in college 
 
(8) World Click column by Yoichi Kato: US alarmed by rising 
China, giving warning to strategy-less Japan 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Spot poll on email fiasco 
 
YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full) 
March 3, 2006 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage.) 
 
Q: Do you support the Koizumi cabinet? 
 
Yes                      54.8 
No                       35.0 
Other answers (O/A)       2.8 
No answer (N/A)           7.4 
 
Q: Which political party do you support now? Pick only one. 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)                    42.9 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto)       15.1 
New Komeito (NK)                                   3.6 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP)                     1.6 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto)          1.4 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto)         0.1 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon)            --- 
Other political parties                            0.1 
None                                              31.4 
N/A                                                3.6 
 
Q: The DPJ offered apologies for the recent email uproar, 
explaining that former Livedoor Co. President Horie's email 
allegedly directing his staff to send money to LDP Secretary 
General Takebe's son was a fake. Is this DPJ explanation 
 
TOKYO 00001149  002.3 OF 014 
 
 
convincing to you? 
 
Yes       10.9 
No        77.0 
N/A       12.0 
 
 
Q: The DPJ has decided on a half-year suspension of party 
membership for its House of Representatives member, Hisayasu 
Nagata, who took up this email issue in the Diet, and DPJ Diet 
Affairs Committee Chairman Noda has resigned from his party post. 
Is this way of taking responsibility over the email fiasco 
convincing to you? 
 
Yes       19.2 
No        70.4 
N/A       10.4 
 
Q: Do you think Nagata should resign from his Diet seat to take 
responsibility? 
 
Yes       60.1 
No        31.7 
N/A        8.3 
 
Q: DPJ President Maehara kept saying the email was highly 
credible. Do you think such a response was appropriate? 
 
Yes       11.1 
No        78.2 
N/A       10.7 
 
Q: Do you think DPJ President Maehara should resign as his 
party's head to take responsibility for the email uproar? 
 
Yes       45.2 
No        45.4 
N/A        9.4 
 
Q: Do you think the DPJ is competent enough to take office? 
 
Yes       15.5 
No        71.6 
N/A       13.0 
 
 
Q: Do you think the email uproar has increased the public 
distrust of politics? 
 
Yes       67.5 
No        25.5 
N/A        7.0 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted March 1-2 over the 
telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. A 
total of 1,662 households with one or more voters were sampled, 
and valid answers were obtained from 932 persons (56.1%). 
 
(2) Tasks to clear before removing ban on US beef imports: 
Interview with Masahiko Yamada, agriculture minister in 
Minshuto's "next cabinet"; Japan's inspection, approval to be 
made precondition 
 
 
TOKYO 00001149  003.2 OF 014 
 
 
ASAHI (Page 15) (Full) 
March 3, 2006 
 
I've visited the US many times since late 2003, when the first 
case of BSE was reported there, as a member of the inspection 
team of the Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) or of the House 
of Representatives Agriculture, and Fisheries Committee. I found, 
through investigations at slaughterhouses and reports from 
whistleblowers, how sloppy the US government's anti-BSE 
inspection system is. 
 
These are the four essential measures to prevent BSE: Blanket 
testing; removal of specified risk materials (SRM); a 
computerized cattle-identification system; and restrictions on 
animal feed. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), however, 
has been negative about introducing these requirements. The 
department's negative stance probably results from its being 
under the strong influence of the National Cattlemen's Beef 
Association (NCBA), which is lobbying for leading cattle farmers 
giving priority to their own profits. It is also true that NCBA 
is an influential support group for the Republican Bush 
administration. 
 
Vertebral columns, a SRM, were discovered in a US beef shipment 
to Japan. This case showed the sloppiness of US safety 
procedures. Japan bans the use of BSE-prone meat-and-bone meal as 
animal feed. In contrast, the US has introduced insufficient 
regulations on animal feed. I heard this directly from an officer 
of the US General Accounting Office, but USDA does not send out a 
warning even if it finds farmers feed chicks, pigs, and cattle 
meat-and-bone meal from cows, so the possibility cannot be ruled 
out that the US has shipped meat-and-bone meal containing SRM to 
Japan and other countries. 
 
Senior American officers have said that in the US, there are 95 
million heads of cattle, 20 times more than Japan, but only two 
BSE-infected cows have been found. According to the US 
Administration Inspection Bureau, however, the US has not 
conducted satisfactory inspections on downer cows unable to walk 
and has taken even measures to exclude cattle suspected of being 
infected with BSE from those subject to inspection. As pointed 
out by Japan's Food Safety Commission, if the same inspection 
methods as Japan's were adopted in the US, about 200 BSE-positive 
cows would have been found. 
 
Despite such uncertain factors, the Japanese government, under 
pressure from the US, decided to resume US beef imports last 
December. This decision was apparently a mistake. The discovery 
of vertebral columns in a shipment could have been predicted, 
considering sloppy US safety processing. 
 
The government reimposed its ban on US beef imports immediately 
after the discovery of the Beef Export Verification violation, 
but it also should stop beef imports from Canada, because US beef 
could reach Japan through Canada. 
 
It is also suspected that US beef could flow into Japan via 
Mexico. Though the European Union (EU) gives that nation the same 
evaluation on the risk of BSE as that for the US, Japan's 
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Ministry deems Mexico a 
country free from BSE risk. Recently, it was learned that US beef 
was exported to South Korea via Mexico, so Seoul stopped beef 
imports from Mexico. The Food Safety Commission should urgently 
 
TOKYO 00001149  004 OF 014 
 
 
reassess the risk of BSE on beef from Mexico. 
 
The agreement reached between Japan and the US last December 
allows authorized meat-processing facilities to export products 
to Japan even without Japan's inspections. This agreement 
indisputably reflects Tokyo's concession to Washington's 
highhandedness. South Korea has imported products only from the 
facilities it authorized through its own inspections. Japan 
should make this measure a minimum condition for resuming 
imports. 
 
I do not mean, though, that all American beef should be shut out 
of Japan. There are sincere producers and meat packers, even 
while leading farmers and the US government are highhanded. 
 
There is the option of importing beef only from producer groups 
introducing the computerized cattle-identification system and 
packing plants ready to voluntarily carry out blanket testing. 
The Japanese government must keep in mind the fact that Japan's 
food safety cannot be protected if it is completely under the 
thumb of the US. 
 
(3) Prefectural assembly to meet Mar. 24 on X-band radar 
installation at Shariki 
 
TOO NIPPO (Page 2) (Full) 
February 28, 2006 
 
The Aomori prefectural assembly is expected to hold a plenary 
session March 24 to deliberate on the planed installation of a US 
military early warning radar system, called the X-band radar, at 
the Air Self-Defense Force's Shariki Detachment base in the city 
of Tsugaru, Aomori Prefecture, sources said yesterday. In March, 
after the prefectural assembly's plenary session, the Aomori 
prefectural government will brief local residents on the planned 
radar installation in the city of Tsugaru and other 
municipalities. 
 
In March, the Japanese and US governments will release a final 
report on the realignment of US forces in Japan. The report will 
incorporate the X-band radar installation. The government will 
presumably ask Aomori Prefecture in early March at the earliest 
to cooperate on the radar's location. The prefectural government 
will provide explanations to the prefectural assembly during its 
regular session. 
 
The prefectural assembly is expected to ask Defense Agency, 
Defense Facilities Administration Agency, and other government 
officials to attend the plenary session. Meanwhile, the 
prefectural government has set up a panel of experts and has 
asked the panel to study the radar installation. The panel's 
members are also expected to be called on to attend the 
prefectural assembly's plenary session. 
 
The prefectural government is expected to judge on whether to 
accept the radar installation, based on the plenary session and 
local briefing. The Liberal Democratic Party is positive about 
accepting the radar deployment from the perspective of national 
defense. 
 
Local communities ask Tsugaru municipal assembly to send in 
petition to government against radar installation 
 
 
TOKYO 00001149  005 OF 014 
 
 
Japan and the United States are likely to install the X-band 
radar, an advanced mobile early warning radar system developed by 
US forces, at the ASDF's Shariki Detachment base in the city of 
Tsugaru. Concerning this issue, a local group of Tsugaru citizens 
 
SIPDIS 
and other neighboring municipal residents opposing the radar 
deployment petitioned the city's municipal assembly in written 
form yesterday to send in an anti-deployment statement to the 
government. 
 
In its petition, the group raises an objection to the radar 
deployment, reasoning that the deployment could intensify 
tensions in Northeast Asia, that the deployment conflicts with 
the constitutionally prohibited right of collective self-defense, 
that the radar site could be under attack, and that radiowaves 
could affect the environment. The group has asked the municipal 
assembly to send in an anti-deployment state to the Defense 
Agency and the Defense Facilities Administration Agency. 
 
More than ten local residents from Tsugaru, Goshogawara, 
Hirosaki, and other municipalities organized the group on Feb. 
¶18. "We'd like to continue working on other neighboring 
municipalities," says one of its secretariat's members. 
 
The Tsugaru municipal assembly will deliberate on the petition in 
a closed session on March 3. 
 
(4) Budget bill clears Lower House; What will become of remaining 
half of Diet session? Given breathing room, LDP already in mode 
for party presidential election; Three potential successors to 
Koizumi come up with original policies 
 
MAINICHI (Page 3) (Excerpts) 
March 3, 2006 
 
While the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ = Minshuto) remaining in 
chaos over the phony email scandal, the fiscal 2006 budget bill 
yesterday cleared the Lower House at the initiative of the ruling 
camp. The government and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) now 
look composed because of the passage of the budget bill and the 
self-destruction of the opposition DPJ. They are now shifting 
focus from Diet policies to the party presidential election in 
September. In the first half of the Diet session, cabinet 
ministers regarded as potential successors to Koizumi faced a 
barrage of questions, indicating growing anticipation for the 
LDP's presidential election. 
 
During a Lower House Budget Committee meeting on Mar. 2, LDP 
member Koji Omi questioned three LDP members who are regarded as 
potential post-Koizumi contenders about their views on measures 
to deal with the nation's declining birth rate. Budget Committee 
meetings, which are televised, are the best opportunity for the 
three to play up their policies. It is at the same time a double- 
edged sword, because their replies could raise doubts about their 
ability to handle Diet questions. Opposition party members are 
also asking questions in order to put them to the test. The 
current Diet session is taking on an aspect of being a 
preliminary skirmish for the LDP presidential election. 
 
Abe called for the continuation of Koizumi's structural reform 
policy when he replied during a Budget Committee meeting on Feb. 
6, "Our reform policy is correct." He, on the other hand, 
indicated a cautious stance to the proposed amendment to the 
Imperial House Law designed to allow females and their 
 
TOKYO 00001149  006 OF 014 
 
 
descendants to ascend the Imperial throne. He said, "We should be 
aware of the fact that males have ascended the Imperial throne 
and consider how best the Imperial succession system can be 
maintained, bearing the significance of that fact in mind." 
 
Referring to the criticism by China and South Korea of the prime 
minister's visits to Yasukuni Shrine, Aso at a Budget Committee 
meeting on Feb. 14 defended the prime minister, noting, "China 
and South Korea are the only countries in Asia with which Japan 
cannot hold summits." 
 
However when it comes to the question of whether he himself will 
visit Yasukuni, Aso on a TV program on Feb. 19 kept his distance 
from Koizumi, saying, "Priority should be given not to individual 
interests but to national interests." 
 
Both Abe and Aso appear anxious to display their originality 
through Diet replies, while sharing, in principle, the Koizumi 
policy. Tanigaki during a Budget Committee meeting on Jan. 27 
indicated concern, "Income disparity could emerge in the process 
of free competition, but it is not desirable that this become 
permanent." Another potential candidate Yasuo Fukuda, former 
chief cabinet secretary, is still refraining from making any open 
comment on the presidential election. 
 
A senior New Komeito official noted that the DPJ's strength would 
affect the LDP presidential election, saying, "If the DPJ is 
strong, Mr. Abe would be appropriate for the election, because he 
is strong in elections, but if the DPJ is weak, the range of 
options for presidential candidates would widen." 
 
Prime Minister again bullish about maintaining his power base 
 
Now that the fiscal 2006 budget has cleared the Lower House, how 
Prime Minister Koizumi will maintain his power base through Sept. 
is another focus of attention. Though his administration was at 
one time a lame duck because of four setbacks, including the 
Livedoor incident, the prime minister has completely recovered. 
He told reporters on the evening of Mar. 2, "Potential post- 
Koizumi contenders must apply themselves to their own duties as 
cabinet ministers." He added: "Being a presidential candidate 
entails an enormous amount of tension. I think it is a good 
opportunity for them to learn discipline." 
 
The prime minister intends to have the basic policy guidelines on 
economic and fiscal management and structural reforms for fiscal 
2007, as well as the administrative reform promotion bill, 
adopted at cabinet meetings in June. A battle over a package 
reform of expenditures and revenues, including the issue of 
hiking the consumption tax, is expected to heat up. The issue is 
bound to become a major point of contention for post-Koizumi 
contenders. It is expected that the prime minister will try to 
maintain his power base by orchestrating the battle. 
 
Moves to collect as many faction members as possible intensifying 
 
Moves to collect as many faction members as possible are 
intensifying in the LDP. The 82 first-time lawmakers are the main 
targets of recruiting. Nearly half of them have already joined 
political factions despite Prime Minister Koizumi's call for them 
not to do so. Three factions affiliated with the former Miyazawa 
faction (Kochi group) are showing moves to reunite. The former 
Horiuchi faction, whose chairmanship had been vacant, has adopted 
 
TOKYO 00001149  007 OF 014 
 
 
a two-representative system. LDP factions are thus taking 
complicated movements, including moves to expand or defend their 
organizations. 
 
First-time lawmakers, once called Koizumi's "children," no longer 
have the sense of unity they showed shortly after the election. 
An increasing number of them are now joining factions. Alarmed 
about the trend, those who are determined to remain independent 
have formed a group for those who are not affiliated with 
factions. However, veteran lawmakers predicted that the battle to 
recruit faction members will become fierce, noting, "Such a group 
will disintegrate sooner or later." 
 
But with an aspect of a generational change in the presidential 
race among Abe, the most promising candidate, and the other three 
likely candidates, factions will not have the decisive power they 
enjoyed in the past. Various factions are trying to strengthen 
their unity, though it is expected that mid-ranking and junior 
members would cross faction lines to support Abe. There is no 
knowing how successful they will be at defending their 
organizations. 
 
(5) Is paying homage at Yasukuni Shrine a matter of the heart? 
Examining the prime minister's constitutional view from 
perspective of separation of politics and religion 
 
ASAHI (Page 15) (Abridged) 
March 2, 2006 
 
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has repeatedly defended his 
visits to Yasukuni Shrine by citing the freedom of thought and 
conscience guaranteed in Article 19 of the Constitution. Meeting 
with fierce criticism from China and South Korea, he also 
commented, "Is it proper for foreign governments to intervene in 
a matter of the heart?" How does he find the principle of 
separation of politics and religion? Is it proper for the 
country's chief executive officer to brush aside his 
controversial shrine visits as a matter of the heart? Koizumi's 
constitutional view raises questions. 
 
The government's view 
 
Although the government's view has been inconsistent, it has 
always made a distinction between official and private capacities 
regarding the prime minister's Yasukuni visits. The government's 
view is that the prime minister is entitled to his freedom of 
religion as an individual, but a visit to the shrine in his 
official capacity is subject to substantial constraints in 
accordance with the constitutional principle of separation of 
state and religion. 
 
In 1975, Takeo Miki paid homage at Yasukuni on August 15, the 
anniversary of Japan's World War II surrender. He was the first 
post-World War II prime minister to do so. The government 
explained that Miki visited there in his private capacity 
because: (1) he did not use his official car; (2) he made an 
offering from his pocket money; (3) he did not put his official 
title when signing the book; and (4) he did not take any public 
figures with him. 
 
Three years later in 1978, Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda visited 
the shrine. Fukuda also made an offering from his pocket money, 
but he used an official vehicle and was accompanied by official 
 
TOKYO 00001149  008 OF 014 
 
 
aides. In October that year, the government revealed the 
following view at an Upper House Cabinet Committee meeting: 
 
"As individuals, the prime minister and other state ministers are 
entitled to the freedom of religion under the Constitution. They 
are free to visit shrines and temples in their private capacity. 
Their visits should be regarded as activities in private capacity 
unless they are designated as government events or offerings are 
made from the state coffers." 
 
Before the Upper House Rules and Administration Committee in 
November 1980, the government took the following view, which was 
more direct than before: 
 
"Questions remain about the constitutionality of visits to 
Yasukuni Shrine by the prime minister and other state ministers 
in their official capacity. They should refrain from visiting the 
shrine as state ministers." 
 
In 1985, an advisory panel to the chief cabinet secretary called 
Council on Visits to Yasukuni Shrine by the Cabinet Ministers 
produced a report urging the government to search for ways 
allowing state ministers to visit the shrine without violating 
the principle of separation of politics and religion. The report 
essentially urged the government to turn around its view, posing 
questions on the constitutionality of official visits. Based on 
the report, Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone officially visited 
the controversial shrine on Aug. 15 that year. 
 
The government unveiled the following view at a Lower House 
Cabinet Committee meeting in October 1985: 
 
"Making a bow at the inner shrine or in front of shrine pavilions 
during a visit to Yasukuni Shrine by the prime minister for the 
purpose of offering condolences to the war dead does not 
contravene the principle of separation of state and religion." 
 
This serves as the foundation of the government's view today. 
 
Court decisions 
 
The prime minister's visits to the shrine have often found their 
way to court, but the Supreme Court has yet to make any decision 
on their constitutionality. Lower courts' decisions have been 
split, however. 
 
In September 2005, the Osaka District Court ruled Koizumi's 
shrine visits unconstitutional. The court also said: 
 
"The separation of state and religion resulted from the fact that 
some religious organizations had suffered severe persecution when 
State Shinto was regarded as de facto state religion (up to the 
end of WWII)." 
 
The court ruled that Koizumi's visits to the inner shrine's 
religious activities gave the public the impression that the 
state supported Yasukuni Shrine. 
 
The Fukuoka District Court, which also ruled Koizumi's shrine 
visits unconstitutional, said in April 2004: 
 
"It is not proper for the prime minister to visit Yasukuni 
Shrine, which honors the war dead of World War II." 
 
TOKYO 00001149  009 OF 014 
 
 
 
The court took seriously the fact that Koizumi visited Yasukuni 
knowing that his action would draw domestic and international 
criticism. 
 
The Tokyo High Court, though, ruled in September 2005 that 
Koizumi's visits to the shrine were religious activities to pay 
tribute to the spirits of the war dead based on his personal 
belief, while indicating that official visits might be 
unconstitutional. The court took the view that Koizumi was 
allowed to visit the shrine in line with freedom of religion. 
 
Men in power constrained by Constitution; Private and public 
matters must not be mixed up 
 
By Yoichi Higuchi, constitutional scholar 
 
Visiting Yasukuni Shrine was a campaign pledge for Prime Minister 
Koizumi, and he has made it a political issue. It is improper for 
the prime minister to link his shrine visits to the freedom of 
conscience guaranteed in Article 19 of the Constitution. 
 
Needless to say, the Constitution is intended to put constraints 
on words and actions by men in power in order to protect private 
citizens. 
 
As prime minister, Koizumi represents power himself, so it is 
illogical to buttress his argument on shrine visits with the 
Constitution. Questions also remain if he is really aware of why 
separation of politics and religion was incorporated in the 
Constitution of Japan. The concept was originally born in the 
Christian world. In the case of Japan, the government used State 
Shinto to raise national morale, a secular purpose, during the 
war, and the regret for that led to the stipulation of separation 
of religion and state in the Constitution. 
 
In view of the fact that the principle of separation of 
government and religion resulted from state Shintoism, the prime 
minister's visit to Yasukuni Shrine that played a major role in 
Japan's militaristic past would cause a problem naturally in 
regard to the Constitution. 
 
The prime minister is responsible to serve in the best interests 
of the country. Koizumi, who has repeatedly dismissed domestic 
and international criticism of his shrine visits as a matter of 
the heart, is clearly mixing up personal matters and official 
duties as person in such a position. 
 
(6) Self-destruction of Minshuto (Part 1): Immatureness exposed 
 
YOMIURI (Page 1) (Slightly abridged) 
March 2, 2006 
 
The Weblogs opened up by Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) 
members have been deluged with floods of protests recently. The 
following two messages are among those posted on the blog opened 
by House of Representatives member Akihisa Nagashima: "You should 
not be playing games, wasting our tax money." "You should look at 
this problem not from the standpoint of a lawmaker but as a 
Japanese citizen." 
 
Minshuto has had to admit that its member's accusation of a cash 
link between Livedoor Co. and a Liberal Democratic Party member's 
 
TOKYO 00001149  010 OF 014 
 
 
son was groundless. In this uproar, questions have been raised 
about the qualification of Minshuto lawmakers. 
 
Lower House member Hisayasu Nagata, who took up the e-mail issue, 
was hospitalized in Tokyo on the night of Feb. 23 for being in 
poor physical condition and was discharged at noon of Feb. 28. He 
held a press conference the same day, but he did not attend the 
Lower House plenary session held on the afternoon of Feb. 20, 
prior to the press conference. 
 
New Komeito Diet Policy Committee Chairman Junji Higashi 
criticized Nagata for lacking the awareness of being a 
politician, saying: 
 
"H finally appeared in public again after having being in hiding 
for a long time and having thrown the Diet into confusion, but he 
did not show up in the plenary session. This shows how lightly he 
has treated Diet affairs and what a highhanded posture he has 
usually taken." 
 
Though Nagata offered an apology in the press conference, he had 
not yet apologized directly to Liberal Democratic Party Secretary 
General Tsutomu Takebe. 
 
In a joint plenary meeting of Minshuto members of both houses of 
the Diet on Feb. 28, Lower House member Tetsundo Iwakuni 
criticized Nagata: "Did he take proper action toward Mr. Takebe 
prior to the press conference, for instance, by making a phone 
call to offer an apology?" 
 
Not only Nagata has come under fire. The e-mail furor exposed the 
immatureness and carelessness of party leader Maehara and other 
executive members. Maehara was tapped to lead the opposition 
party, following its crushing defeat in the Lower House election 
last September. 
 
In a special executive meeting on the morning of Feb. 28, House 
of Councillors member Satsuki Eda rapped Maehara, saying: "The 
current executive is childish. It is impossible to set aside the 
problem with makeshift measures." 
 
Eda was disgusted at the "irresponsibility" of leader Maehara and 
Secretary General Hatoyama. Maehara and Hatoyama had said on the 
 
SIPDIS 
morning of Feb. 28 that they would step down over the e-mail 
problem, but they did not. Instead, Diet Affairs Committee 
Chairman Noda offered to quit his post. A secretary to a Minshuto 
lawmaker was appalled: "This party has no parent. When junior 
members are about to head the wrong way, the party veterans don't 
even try to stop them." 
 
Until the Lower House election last year, Minshuto had steadily 
increased the number of its seats. Observers analyzed the boost 
was thanks to increased support from unaffiliated voters in urban 
areas.  There were cases in which young persons with little 
experience in life got Diet member badges. 
 
Minshuto once introduced a tutor system for the first-term 
lawmakers elected in the 2003 Lower House election. The aim of 
the organized education system was to overcome their "spiritual 
weakness." But the system is now in limbo. 
 
In the Feb. 28 joint plenary meeting of Minshuto members of both 
houses of the Diet, House of Councillors member Toshio Ogawa 
 
TOKYO 00001149  011 OF 014 
 
 
stressed the necessity of the party's self-reproaching, saying: 
"The recent (e-mail fiasco) might have made the public think that 
it is undesirable to hand over political power to Minshuto." A 
sense of alarm is gradually sweeping across the party. Members 
fear that there may be no bright future for Minshuto, which is 
being seen as a perennial opposition party with no capability to 
assume the reins of government.. 
 
(7) Self-destruction of Minshuto (Part 2): President Maehara 
manages the party as if he is still in college 
 
YOMIURI (Page 1) (Full) 
March 3, 2006 
 
On the night of February 28 when Minshuto (Democratic Party of 
Japan) President Seiji Maehara was forced to step down from his 
post to take responsibility for the e-mail fiasco, seven members, 
including Mitsuo Mitani and Keiro Kitagami, got together at a 
Tokyo restaurant. The seven were elected for the first time to 
the Diet in last year's House of Representatives election. They 
were all concerned about the future of their party. 
 
One lawmaker said: 
 
"The current executive is a party of good friends or a group of 
persons who have similar characteristics. They have no one who 
can work behind-the-scenes. I wonder if the party can survive as 
is." 
 
Some junior lawmakers supporting Maehara even began to question 
the party leadership, which is now exposed as incompetent, 
witnessing party leaders' slapdash handling of the e-mail issue. 
 
Maehara has managed the party along with his close friends, 
including Yoshihiko Noda, who resigned as chairman of the Diet 
Affairs Committee, Acting Secretary General Koichiro Genba, and 
Goshi Hosono, his junior in Kyoto University. Maehara, Noda and 
Genba are graduates of the Matsushita Institute of Government and 
Management. A lawmaker affiliated with the now defunct Democratic 
Socialist Party commented: "(Maehara) conducts politics just like 
college students carrying out activities." 
 
Maehara, who aims to fulfill strong leadership, tried to reach 
internal consensuses on such basic policies as security and 
constitutional amendment through his top-down management. For 
example, without getting approval of the party, he stated in a 
speech last December that China was a threat to Japan. He then 
tried to make his view the party's. 
 
Maehara's political methods are similar to those of Prime 
Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who got postal privatization bills 
through the Diet, refusing harmony and cooperation with anti- 
postal reform forces in the LDP. Since Maehara has often left 
Secretary General Hatoyama out of the loop, some party members 
 
SIPDIS 
dub him the "mini Koizumi." By calling anti-Koizumi lawmakers as 
the forces of resistance, Koizumi won public support. One of the 
reasons why Maehara cannot unify the party is that he does not 
have a strategy, something that politicians who have managed to 
clear a number of obstacles usually have developed. 
 
Minshuto's local organizations and support groups of its 
lawmakers are weak. Although Minshuto is regarded as a party that 
might form a two-party system with the LDP, the main opposition 
 
TOKYO 00001149  012 OF 014 
 
 
party has only 35 local government assembly members, which means 
that it is difficult for the party to observe views of voters and 
local governments, lacking a sense of balance to give 
consideration to a variety of views in the party. 
 
Hiroshi Yamada, the head of Suginami Ward, dined with Maehara, 
Noda and Genba on Feb. 7. Yamada, the three lawmakers' senior of 
the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management, gave them 
advice, saying, "You have to widen personal network as 
politicians. I'm worried about your political activities. You 
must have intelligent agents to establish information networks." 
 
Maehara, however, only replied, "You can say that again." 
 
The e-mail fiasco came about ten days later. Taking the 
information obtained by lawmaker Hisayasu Nagata on faith, a few 
members in the party executive decided to take it up at the Diet 
-- a decision that led the party to self-destruction. 
 
Bunmei Ibuki, a former labor minister, said in a meeting of his 
faction on March 2: 
 
"Senior lawmakers elected to the Diet a number of times have a 
political sense of balance and guardedness. But Minshuto has 
excluded such thinking in its management." 
 
Ibuki's analysis is that this structural problem in Minshuto led 
to the e-mail uproar. 
 
Yesterday the executive was finally able to pick former Lower 
House Vice Speaker Kozo Watanabe as chairman of its Diet Affairs 
Committee. The appointment of Watanabe is probably their 
afterthought to downplaying of "behind-the-scenes maneuvering" in 
the party. Maehara's term as president will expire in September. 
Minshuto members have to work hard against time to unite. 
 
(8) World Click column by Yoichi Kato: US alarmed by rising 
China, giving warning to strategy-less Japan 
 
ASAHI (Page 15) (Full) 
March 2, 2006 
 
By Yoichi Kato, chief of the Asahi Shimbun America Bureau 
 
Last week I was invited to a conference that discussed China's 
growing influence, hosted by National Defense University (NDU) in 
the United States. I was expected to speak about how Japan looks 
at a rising China and what role Japan wants the US to play in 
this context. 
 
Foreigners invited to the conference besides me were scholars 
from the Philippines and Thailand and a Mongolian ambassador to 
the US. 
 
The meeting was the last round of a serial seminar on China the 
NDU had hosted over the past one year in cooperation with a 
Washington-based think tank. 
 
Recently a rising China has been a major topic in seminars as 
well as books published here in the US 
 
But political leaders in the US, unlike those in Japan, do not 
openly describe China as a threat. Their general tendency is to 
 
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try to look as closely as possible into in what direction China 
will move in the future, for instance, how its economy will 
develop. They also wonder what China is aiming to achieve in the 
Asia-Pacific region and whether there is any possibility of 
America's national interests being eroded by China. 
 
Looking back on the situation in the US immediately after the 
9/11 terrorist attacks (in 2001) five years ago, I really feel I 
am now living in a different age. 
 
At that time I was a guest researcher at NDU. Until Sept. 9 of 
that year, major research courses and classes there had dealt 
with China as the theoretical enemy the US would next have to 
fight. But everything changed after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. 
With America's concern shifting to terrorism, China has turned 
into a partner to fight terrorism together. 
 
But America is again shifting its attitude toward China. Some in 
the US have since mid-last year begun arguing that the US-China 
honeymoon is over. This argument is leading to Americans being 
alarmed by China. 
 
There are a couple of conceivable reasons. First, the US is 
becoming increasingly concerned about China's military buildup 
now that the European Union (EU) is moving to lift the embargo on 
arms exports there. Second, the US is becoming skeptical whether 
China is serious about nuclear non-proliferation, given little 
progress in the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear 
ambitions. In addition, China has been steadily expanding its 
influence in Southeast Asia and Latin America. This move, too, is 
irritating the US. 
 
America's recent sense of alarm against China comes mainly from 
China's long-term regional strategy rather than the immediate 
task of how to deal with a possible Taiwan Strait crisis. 
 
"China will eat America's lunch." This expression is often used 
to describe China's erosion of America's influence in Southeast 
Asia. 
 
Is America's lunch actually being eaten by China? This question 
has been the topic for discussions among experts (in the US). 
 
"The US is losing," Professor Otto at the National War College 
said. 
 
"While China has an elaborated (regional) strategy under which it 
is achieving good results, the US has no strategy and seems 
unaware that the race has already started," the professor added, 
criticizing the US. 
 
In contrast, Georgetown University Professor Sutter takes an 
opposite position. In January, he asserted at another meeting, 
"China's influence in Asia is limited," dismissing the argument 
that the US influence is fading away. 
 
Although that argument has yet to be concluded, it is certain 
that the US and China are in the midst of mega-competition. 
 
The Navy-affiliated think tank CNA Corporation will shortly 
release a book dealing with that argument. According to the 
author, China's growing influence in Southeast Asia is likely to 
have a more significant spillover on Japan and Taiwan than the 
 
TOKYO 00001149  014 OF 014 
 
 
US. The author concludes that Japan's lunch has been really eaten 
up. An evidence of this, the author cited Japan's failed bid for 
a permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council, 
adding that some policy-planning officials of the nations in the 
region are of the opinion that Japan is lacking a comprehensive 
approach needed to deal with China's expanded influence. 
 
In the NDU conference, I was asked about Japan: "How much 
influence does Japan have in Asia?" "What is Japan's regional 
strategy?" 
 
I answered: "Japan has no regional strategy, although Japan's 
Foreign Ministry does not agree with me." Following me, a scholar 
from Thailand said: "We cannot expect much from Japan for it has 
yet to become a normal country yet." 
 
SCHIEFFER