VZCZCXRO5938
PP RUEHCN
DE RUEHIN #0918/01 0792341
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 202341Z MAR 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9201
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 4921
RUESLE/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 8511
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1126
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5072
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 9120
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6114

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000918 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
DEPT FOR EAP/TC, INR/EAP 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT:  Loss in Chiayi Supplemental Legislative Election Shows 
Support Eroding for DPP 
 
REF: A) 2006 TAIPEI 0490, B) 2006 TAIPEI 0567 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  In Chiayi City's March 11, 2006, supplemental 
Legislative election (reftels A and B), the KMT candidate Chiang 
Yi-hsiung won by 3,038 votes over DPP candidate Chen Li-chen.  In 
the December 2005, 3-in-1 election, Chen Li-chen had already lost 
her re-election bid for mayor.  This second loss for Chen in 
consecutive elections in a deep green, anti-KMT, stronghold has lent 
further credence to the belief that southern Taiwan's support for 
the ruling Democratic Progress Party (DPP) is eroding.  The effect 
of the Chiayi loss on the upcoming Kaohsiung mayoral election has 
DPP party officials worried. End summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) A contact in Chiayi told AIT/K that in this election, DPP 
candidate Chen Li-chen's supporters did not want President Chen in 
the local vicinity campaigning for Chen.  On the other hand, the 
Chiayi KMT headquarters called on the strength of KMT Chairman Ma 
Ying-jeou, bringing him down for at least five campaign events.  A 
businessman in Tainan City told AIT/K that the election is a big 
setback for DPP because the KMT candidate, although a very weak one 
in terms of background and image, still won the race.  These 
phenomena fully indicated to this businessman that the DPP is 
continuing to lose the battle for key swing votes in southern 
Taiwan. 
 
¶3.  (U) The winning KMT candidate Chiang Yi-hsiung, who had lost 
twice in his previous bids during 1993 and 1994 mayoral elections, 
attributed his victory to KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's charisma.  Ma 
Ying-jeou, on the other hand, cautioned supporters to remain humble 
and not to be too ebullient over one win.  Ma said although the Pan 
Blue has secured its fragile majority in the Legislative Yuan (LY), 
it will continue to play its role as a modest, rational and 
responsible opposition. (Note: Pan Blue now has 113 of 221 
legislators, and KMT is now tied with DPP at 88 as the two largest 
parties.  End Note.) 
 
¶4.  (U) DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun attributed the defeat to the 
overall environment in Taiwan, the Electronic Toll Collector (ETC) 
scandal and low voter turnout (only 42.5 percent).  Yu rebutted 
media analysis that indicated the National Unification Council (NUC) 
was a major factor in the DPP defeat, arguing the issue has helped 
boost the Pan Green's morale.  Yu said that compared to Chiayi's 
mayoral election in December last year, in which the DPP candidate 
lost to the KMT candidate by 10 percent of the votes, the 
discrepancy lessened to only 3.6 percent in this election.  Yu said 
that DPP will continue consolidating the party's strength at local 
levels. 
 
¶5. (SBU) After seeing the DPP lose this supplemental election in a 
nearby district, DPP officials in Kaohsiung told AIT/K that the loss 
to the KMT in the 3-in-1 election combined with this leaves them 
feeling even greater pressure to win the upcoming December 2006 
Kaohsiung mayoral election.  While they strongly believe that 
Kaohsiung remains solidly green turf, they noted that the bad 
economy, the KRTC scandal and the losses in Chiayi, make them wonder 
what it will take to pull the swing voters to the DPP side in 
Kaohsiung.  They are now, however, worried about the deep green 
voters who, they claim, will hold their noses and vote DPP in any 
case.  These DPP officials said unequivocally that right now support 
from former Premier Hsieh and Chen Chi-nan, although both have been 
implicated in the KRTC scandal, are key to which DPP candidate will 
run in the December Kaohsiung mayoral election. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Comment.  There is no question that green supporters in 
southern Taiwan are still reeling from these losses in Chiayi and 
the DPP scandals of 2005.  For the second time this winter, the KMT 
has managed to "cross the Chuoshui River," the highly emotional 
dividing line between Green South and Blue North, giving substance 
to Chairman Ma's pledge in December to lead the KMT south across the 
Chuoshui.  From any shade of green or blue, the Kaohsiung mayoral 
election is lining up to provide excellent insight into what to 
expect from southern Taiwan swing voters in Taiwan's 2008 
presidential election.  End comment. 
 
THIELE 
 
YOUNG 
 
 
 
TAIPEI 00000918  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
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