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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001750 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
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E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Iraq - Third Anniversary of 
War Iran 
PARIS - Monday, March 20, 2006 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
Iraq - Third Anniversary of War 
Iran 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
A few words echoing in today's headlines, "Crisis," 
"Ultimatum," "Tug of War" and finally the much-dreaded 
"General Strike" give the tone of today's lead story after 
Saturday's demonstrations aimed to force the government to 
"withdraw" its youth employment legislation (CPE). While 
President Chirac reiterates his support for his Prime Minister 
and his policy, commentators wonder whether "the unions have 
made too strong a demand from the government: withdraw the CPE 
or nothing." Political analysts review the legal aspects and 
note that constitutionally, the PM does not have the leeway to 
withdraw a law, which has already been voted. Hence the 
questions about Villepin's margin of maneuver and "what the 
demonstrators can reasonably expect." 
 
Sunday's Le Journal du Dimanche carries the latest popularity 
poll showing that Chirac gains 2 percentage points, up to 39%, 
while his PM Villepin loses 6, down to 37%. 
 
The lead international story is Iraq and the third anniversary 
of the beginning of the war. For Liberation "Iraq is plunging 
into a civil war, while President Bush tries to find an 
honorable way out." In his article, Pascal Riche wonders 
"whether Iraq will be Bush's downfall," while Le Monde carries 
an article about "impeachment making its way in Washington." 
For Le Figaro "it is a sad third anniversary. while in the 
U.S. support for President Bush is at its lowest." France Soir 
asks on its front page: "Three Years of War in Iraq, What 
For?" An op-ed in Le Journal du Dimanche is entitled "Honest 
Bush Has Turned Incompetent."  In Les Echos, an op-ed entitled 
"Iraq, Iran and the Stubbornness of Events" is in fact a 
commentary on Washington's National Security Strategy. (See 
Part C) Saturday's Le Monde interviews U.S. Ambassador Zalmay 
Khalizad: "I do not believe civil war is inevitable, although 
I acknowledge security is an issue. We came here and we 
toppled Saddam's regime. Yes we are responsible for lots of 
what is happening. I am not ashamed to admit it. But if we 
leave now, chances of a war between religious communities will 
increase and spill over outside Iraq. What is at stake is the 
fate of the region." 
 
Today's second international story is the re-election of 
Belarus "dictator" Loukashenko, while on Saturday Le Figaro's 
editorial focused on Iran's "first step." (See Part C) 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
Iraq - Third Anniversary of War 
 
"A `Phony' Civil War" 
Gerard Dupuy in left-of-center Liberation (03/20): "Three 
years later, a country that was supposed to be entering 
democracy, is tittering on the brink of civil war. Yet Iraqi 
leaders will not concede to this terminology. It is a fact 
that the words `civil war' are misleading. This `war' is led 
exclusively by the Sunni Arabs. The majority of Iraqis are 
still resisting getting into the fray. But this half war is a 
dirty war. with civilian deaths. We must criticize America's 
imperial power for having triggered this madness. But we must 
also acknowledge that Muslim Arabs are interminably murdering 
other Muslim Arabs. Under the guise of wanting to resist U.S. 
forces, it is the little people who are being slaughtered. The 
brutality of Zarkawi's followers gives an inkling of the type 
of regime that would follow if they ever prevailed. While 
nothing proves this will happen, nothing in the allied 
operations or the newborn government can predict an impeding 
end to this atrocious `phony' civil war." 
 
"Three Years Later, Bush a Prisoner of the Iraqi Quagmire" 
Philippe Gelie in right-of-center Le Figaro (03/20): 
"President Bush has two battles to deal with, one against 
terrorism and what appears to be an inexhaustible guerilla in 
Iraq, and the other his declining popularity in American 
public opinion polls.  In this slow downward spiral Bush 
appears to have mastery only over one thing: his propaganda 
which is unchanged. The problem is that after the initial 
generalized docility of the American people with regard to 
Iraq, today they are no longer on board. According to the 
findings of the Pew Center, until recently the word most 
associated with the President was `honest' and today it is 
`incompetent.'" 
 
"Honest Bush Has Become Incompetent" 
Gilles Delafon in right-of-center Le Journal du Dimanche 
(03/19): "To understand President Bush's policy today, it is 
best to read the polls. The presidential boat is sinking, and 
it is best to salvage what can still be salvaged: the mid-term 
elections. The National Strategy policy and the `threat 
presented by Iran' are mere posturing. Great Britain and the 
international community would never follow strikes by 
Washington against Iran. And Tehran would make reprisals in 
Baghdad. Operation Swarmer is part of the same communications 
campaign. The truth is Bush is mired in Iraq, even if some 
democratic inroads have been made. And the irony to end all 
ironies is that it is Iran which is offering to help in Iraq. 
While it is imperative to stop Iran, this must be done through 
consensus, not provocation. And this is where we cannot help 
but observe that three years into the war in Iraq, Bush has 
learned absolutely nothing." 
 
"The Iraqi Fiasco" 
Thomas de Rochechouart in right-of-center France Soir (03/20): 
"Three years into the war, Washington's strategy is shaken. 
Instead of marching towards democracy, Iraq is marching 
towards civil war, to Washington's horror. Slowly the nature 
of the conflict in Iraq changed and has placed the American 
Army face to face with a civil war that could well put into 
question its strategy. And this climate where chaos is 
predominant is all the more worrisome that tension between 
Washington and Tehran is growing. Iran has kept Iraq's Shiite 
majority in check, which has helped Washington. Now Washington 
is threatening Iran over the nuclear crisis. But it is clear 
that the U.S. no longer has the means to engage in a new wide 
scale war." 
 
"Will Iraq Be Bush's Downfall?" 
Pascal Riche in left-of-center Liberation (03/20): "No one in 
Washington talks about re-enforcing the troops in Iraq if 
violence were to increase. Bush no longer has the means of 
implement his policy: he has no choice but to control the 
fallout. His popularity ratings are at their lowest with half 
of all Americans asking for a return of the troops, ASAP." 
 
"Iraq, Iran and the Stubbornness of Events" 
Right-of-center Les Echos in its editorial board commentary 
(03/20): "America's new realism is nothing more than an 
admission that unity in Iraq cannot exist and that Iran is 
threatening to spread its influence. A truth that good Old 
Europe's diplomats have known for a long time. Even if the 
White House remains an `idealist' when it comes to its 
objectives, it has nevertheless learned that democracy cannot 
easily be exported to countries which do not meet the basic 
necessary conditions. Among them the existence of a middle 
class, an adequate level of education, a basic consensus about 
living together and a healthy distinction between the State 
and religion. This is unfortunately how this utopian and 
bloody episode will end. The realists are sad to see to what 
extent events have proven them right." 
 
Iran 
 
"Iran's First Step" 
Pierre Rousselin in right-of-center Le Figaro (03/18): "The 
nuclear question will not be resolved without direct contact 
with the U.S. One must, therefore, be pleased that a primary 
obstacle has been lifted and that contacts are possible, even 
if they are limited to Iraq. The subject is sufficiently vast 
and sufficiently serious to not minimize the implications. 
Among the topics to take up: the formation of the Iraqi 
government and the refusal of the Kurds of Sunnis to support 
the Shiite Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, accused of 
wanting to forge a strategic alliance with Teheran. Another 
worry -- from Washington, this time -- is the support the 
Iranians are giving to radical Shiites and the explosives that 
they are apparently obtaining from the other side of the 
border. In a broader context, Iraq cannot truly be stabilized 
unless a regional equilibrium is re-established, guaranteeing 
neighboring countries against the threat of rising Shiite 
power in the Gulf.  For that, it is necessary to speak to 
Iran. The announcement of first contact is only a first step. 
Each side must avoid the dialogue of the deaf and truly try 
and find common understanding. The Americans are right to 
remain prudent and skeptical." STAPLETON