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INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
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RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
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RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL//J5/J2/POLAD//

UNCLAS PANAMA 000540 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA: INTERNAL RULING-PARTY DYNAMICS AS JOSTLING 
FOR 2009 ELECTIONS BEGINS -- PART III: THE VEEPS 
 
REF: A. PANAMA 0502 
     ¶B. PANAMA 0525 
 
¶1.  (U) "The Veeps" is Part III in a three-part series on 
Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) inner dynamics. 
Part I: The Front Runners (reftel A). 
Part II: The Unwanted One (reftel B). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶2.  (SBU) The PRD's vice presidential candidate in 2009 is 
likely to be Balbina Herrera or Hector Aleman, both of them 
cabinet members, founding members of the Democratic 
Revolutionary party (PRD), locally-educated, self-made but 
experienced politicians with populist, anti-USG backgrounds. 
Herrera (Minister of Housing) and Aleman (Minister of 
Government and Justice) are discretely but aggressively 
positioning themselves for winning an invitation from the 
PRD's presidential candidate invitation to join him on the 
ticket.  A former three-term legislator, Balbina Herrera (52) 
is a former anti-U.S. firebrand who was directly involved in 
the riot that spoiled President George Bush's visit to Panama 
in 1992.  These days, Herrera is a "moderate," admits past 
mistakes and says she has "grown up" politically.  Hector 
Aleman (48) was a public employee union activist who led 
anti-U.S. demonstrations under the military regime.  Both 
Herrera and Aleman are good Embassy contacts.  End summary. 
 
The Minister of Housing 
----------------------- 
¶3.  (SBU) In addition to being Minister of Housing, Balbina 
Herrera is the PRD's deputy secretary general (number-two in 
the party to President Torrijos).  A legislator for fifteen 
years (since 1990), Herrera became Panama,s first female 
National Assembly president in 1995.  Herrera held the 
largely ceremonial PRD presidency during 1999-2002.  Well 
known for her fiery rhetoric and combative style (and for her 
former anti-U.S. activism), Herrera decided not to run for 
re-election to the National Assembly in 2004 and diligently 
supported President Torrijos's successful campaign.  A PRD 
member since 1978 and once closely associated with Manuel 
Noriega, Herrera held numerous PRD leadership positions 
before serving in the legislature, as mayor of San Miguelito 
(1984-89) and president of the Mayors' Association (1985-88). 
 
Most Popular 
------------ 
¶4.  (SBU) Local polls show Herrera as Panama,s most popular 
cabinet member.  (Comment: We have watched people stop, call 
her name, even scream when they see her in the street.  End 
comment.)  Since taking office as housing minister in 
September 2004, Herrera has fully dedicated herself to 
housing poor Panamanians.  PRD legislators have confided to 
Emboff that Herrera discretely meets regularly with three 
other traditional and influential PRDers to analyze current 
situations and evaluate President Torrijos's performance. 
 
Charisma and Clout 
------------------ 
¶5.  (SBU) Herrera's vice presidential aspirations are widely 
known. Herrera has expanded her traditional base of 
supporters in San Miguelito, an impoverished over-crowded 
district within Panama City, through her work on national 
housing projects and through internal work as a PRD leader. 
Likewise, Herrera appears in the media constantly as a 
charismatic politician with strong convictions.  During the 
2004 campaign Herrera's was the principal voice on radio and 
TV shows defending the PRD and Torrijos from opposition 
attacks.  Many believe that Herrera will use all of her 
influence and political clout to persuade the PRD 
presidential candidate to nominate her as his vice president. 
 If Torrijos maintains control of the PRD after the 2007 
internal elections, Herrera will need Torrijos's blessing for 
her aspirations.  One major obstacle could be her rocky 
relationship with the First Lady Vivian Torrijos, who is 
known to strongly influence her husband. 
 
The Minister of Government and Justice 
 
-------------------------------------- 
¶6.  (SBU) Hector Aleman is an up-and-coming politician who 
emphasizes the importance of continuing democratization 
within his party and the country as a whole.  Like Balbina 
Herrera, Aleman's aspirations to become a vice presidential 
candidate under the PRD ticket are no secret.  Although 
he is an elected official (legislator), Aleman's poker-face 
air and lack of charisma may not make him an appealing 
national candidate, especially among younger voters, who make 
up the majority of the electorate.  There are rumors that 
Aleman may eventually replace VP/Foreign Minister Lewis.  The 
rumors are somewhat odd, considering Aleman's lack of 
international experience.  Also, Aleman does not speak 
English.  If he did become foreign minister, travel demands 
might prevent him from internal campaigning. 
 
Up-And-Coming Politico 
---------------------- 
¶7.  (SBU) Aleman has served as Minister of Government and 
Justice since September 1, 2004.  In addition to his cabinet 
post, Aleman is the PRD's Second Deputy Secretary General and 
served as Torrijos campaign coordinator for the May 2004 
presidential race.  He was a driving force behind the 
National Assembly's approval of the PRD-sponsored 
constitutional reform package passed in 2004 and ratified in 
¶2005.  Although re-elected as legislator representing a 
district in Panama City, Aleman is on leave while he serves 
as minister and rumors are that he will not return to the 
Assembly unless he loses his cabinet post. 
 
Good Contacts With Embassy, China 
--------------------------------- 
¶8.  (SBU) A member of Martin Torrijos's &new8 PRD, Aleman 
has worked closely with Embassy officials since taking office 
but in the past he was known for taking anti-American 
positions.  On the other hand, in FY 2002 and again in FY 
2003, Aleman declined to participate in several International 
Visitor (IV) programs, alleging National Assembly and Party 
obligations.  As  Minister of Government and Justice, Aleman 
has cooperated with the Embassy.  Aleman supports 
establishing full diplomatic relations with the People's 
Republic of China (PRC) and withdrawing the GOP's recognition 
of Taiwan.  Aleman has visited the PRC, has close ties to the 
PRC's local Commercial Development Office and even boycotted 
the visit of Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian to the National 
Assembly a few years ago when the PRD controlled it during 
the Moscoso administration. 
Dubious Reputation As A Political "Fixer" 
----------------------------------------- 
¶9.  (SBU) President Torrijos has relied on Aleman for 
political damage control for social security reforms and for 
his help in charting a political strategy to guide the 
conclusion of an FTA with the United States.  Many PRDers 
blame Aleman for the GOP's mishandling of the social security 
reform bill in 2005 and the subsequent five-week street 
demonstrations and strike by construction workers, public 
physicians, nurses and public teachers. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶10.  (SBU) Herrera is probably better placed within the party 
than Aleman for the vice presidential nomination.  She is 
charismatic; he is not.  She is charming; he is not.  She is 
more at ease with the media than Aleman.  Most important, 
PRDers are not blaming her for the government's political 
mistakes.  Potential presidential candidate (Panama City 
mayor) Juan Carlos Navarro would not hesitate to name Herrera 
his vice president.  On the other hand, Aleman is closer to 
potential candidate (VP/Foreign Minister) Samuel Lewis.  At 
the moment, Lewis looks like a better bet for the nomination 
than Navarro, mainly because he is closer Torrijos.  So, in 
the end, Aleman may have better chances than Herrera to get 
President Torrijos, blessing to become the PRD's vice 
presidential candidate. 
 
EATON