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RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL//J5/J2/POLAD//

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000502 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA: INTERNAL RULING-PARTY DYNAMICS AS JOSTLING 
FOR 2009 ELECTIONS BEGINS -- PART I: THE FRONT RUNNERS 
 
 
Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION LUIS ARREAGA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) 
 AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (U) This is part one in a three-part series. 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶2.  (C) With over three years to go before the May 2009 
presidential elections, the ruling Democratic Revolutionary 
Party (PRD) is already full of ferment and rumors as 
potential candidates joust for position.  The U.S.-educated 
current front runners are cousins -- Vice President/Foreign 
Minister Samuel Lewis and Panama City Mayor Juan Carlos 
Navarro.  Given his ambition, political skills, and deep 
pockets -- and despite his long list of negatives -- former 
President Ernesto Perez Balladares (PB) should not be 
underestimated in his bid for the largely ceremonial PRD 
presidency, which many assume he will use as a stepping stone 
for higher office (See Part II).  Former anti-U.S. firebrands 
Balbina Herrera (now Housing Minister) and Hector Aleman 
(Minister of Government and Justice) are likely competitors 
for the single vice presidential slot in 2009, although most 
observers give Herrera the upper hand (See Part III).  With 
the Panamanian opposition parties in complete disarray, the 
PRD -- Panama,s biggest and best organized party -- appears 
well placed to gain back-to-back presidential terms.  But in 
Panama, as elsewhere, it ain't over till it's over.  End 
summary. 
 
Vice President/Foreign Minister Lewis 
------------------------------------- 
¶3.  (SBU) On March 14 VP/Foreign Minister Samuel Lewis went 
out of his way with reporters to deny rumors that he is about 
to step down to launch his 2009 presidential campaign.  This 
time the rumors may not be true, but Lewis will have to 
contemplate leaving his posts to pursue Panama's presidency, 
which he covets.  President Torrijos allegedly chose Lewis as 
his first VP running mate due to the financial power he could 
bring to the campaign contributions and his international 
connections in Washington and abroad.  (Comment: No sonner 
did the rumor about Lewis's resignation hit than MOGJ Hector 
Aleman's name floated up as Lewis's purported replacement, 
improbably, given that Aleman does not speak English.  End 
Comment.)  Other observers claim that Lewis would like Panama 
to open relations with China, at the expense of Taiwan, with 
which Panama has maintained a diplomatic relationship for 
many years. 
 
Wanted: Wealthy Candidate With Good Connections 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶4.  (SBU) A wealthy 48-year-old international businessman 
with a distinguished pedigree of Panamanian forebears, Lewis 
is a former Canal board member and strongly supports free 
markets and Canal expansion.  Lewis would be an appealing 
presidential candidate for local businessmen who see him as 
an ally.  Many GOP insiders claim that Lewis is President 
Torrijos,s choice for presidential candidate.  A Lewis 
presidency would continue the "technocratic" trend begun by 
Torrijos.  A Georgetown University graduate, Lewis is 
pro-American, pro-free market and has been a close contact 
and friend of the U.S. Government. 
 
The Outsider 
------------ 
¶5.  (C) Lewis has plenty of political experience but he lacks 
a broad-based constituency.  Also, whatever political clout 
he may have within the PRD he mostly owes to Torrijos.  Many 
PRDistas see him as an outsider.  In fact, according to 
highly placed PRD sources, Lewis has not yet joined the PRD. 
Lewis was most recently (until February 2003) vice president 
of the Solidarity Party founded by his uncle, Samuel Lewis 
Galindo.  (Note: Lewis worked on his uncle's presidential 
campaign and that of his relative Alberto Vallarino in 1999. 
Interestingly, banker Vallarino's name pops up most often 
among opposition presidential possibilities for 2009.  End 
note.)  Lewis probably would win strong support from PRD 
heavyweights such as presidential advisor Jorge Eduardo 
Ritter and foreign ministry advisor Adolfo Ahumada.  Also, 
the PRD,s youngest board member, Samuel Buitrago, has 
 
signaled his willingness to attract youth support for Lewis. 
 
Panama City Mayor Navarro 
------------------------- 
¶6.  (U) Lewis's most likely opponent for the 2009 
presidential nomination is Panama City's highly popular, 
photogenic mayor, Juan Carlos Navarro (45).  Navarro was 
re-elected in May 2004 by a broad margin to serve a second 
five-year term.  Harvard and Dartmouth educated, Navarro is 
pro-American and pro-free markets.  Navarro once was 
considered Torrijos,s most likely rival for the PRD,s 2004 
presidential nomination but after internal party conflicts, 
Navarro decided to pursue re-election as mayor instead.  This 
time around, Navarro is not being discreet about his 2009 
presidential ambitions and is carefully but vigorously 
campaigning for the nomination. 
 
Who Will Torrijos Back? 
----------------------- 
¶7.  (SBU) Navarro,s first move was to get himself elected as 
head of the National Mayors, Association.  The Association 
holds frequent meetings all over the country, giving Navarro 
wide political exposure outside Panama City.  Navarro does 
not waste any opportunity to appear before the media and 
constantly appears on TV/radio talk shows and live interviews 
to discuss his mayoral projects.  That exposure gives him a 
leg up over Lewis, but the all important issue is who 
Torrijos will back, and most observers give the edge to 
Lewis.  Still, the PRD is Panama's only party which uses a 
democratic primary process to choose its leaders and 
nominees, so support from Torrijos, while important, might 
not be enough. 
 
Open Warfare with PB 
-------------------- 
¶8.  (SBU) Navarro's comments on a March 15 talk show -- 
attributing rising energy prices to PB's mid-1990s 
privatizations -- sparked a stinging exchange of accusations 
and counter accusations with Perez Balladares, who basically 
said that Navarro didn't know what he was talking about, 
while reminding the media of a fawning letter that Navarro 
once wrote to former Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega.  In 
return, Navarro lashed out at what he called PB's "egoism and 
uncontrolable arrogance, his excessive fortune and his barely 
concealed and unhealthy obsession to regain the presidency." 
Navarro also did not fail to remind his audience that PB had 
lost his U.S. visa -- "to the shame of all Panamanians." 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Despite some reluctance Navarro publicly defended 
Torrijos,s unpopular fiscal and social security reforms to 
gain Torrijos,s blessing for a potential 2009 presidential 
run.  Navarro,s political strategist, Ivan Gonzalez, told 
Emboff that &Torrijos is not supporting us yet, but he is 
not against us either, so we need to be careful.8  Not only 
is Navarro looking over his shoulder at first cousin Samuel 
Lewis, he also is concerned about the potential candidacy 
former President Perez Balladares.  There is a story that a 
year or so ago, Navarro walked into PB's office just to tell 
him that he planned to run for president. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Navarro is an environmental pioneer in Panama.  He 
founded the National Association for Nature Conservation 
(ANCON) in 1985, and served as its Executive Director. 
Panama,s foremost environmental advocacy group, under 
Navarro ANCON succeeded in preserving a large tract of Darien 
province as a wilderness area and wildlife santuary. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶11.  (C) It is far too soon to place bets, but either Lewis 
or Navarro are well-placed to become the PRD,s presidential 
candidate.  In addition to their party connections, they meet 
several of the &traditional8 presidential requirements -- 
they both are upper class, white, good looking, influential, 
and locally and internationally well-connected Panamanians. 
Former President Perez Balladares (See part II) would be a 
hard sell for the party -- he lost a 1998 referendum to allow 
him to run for a second term, he is not well-liked and his 
U.S. visa was revoked. 
 
 
EATON