VZCZCXRO9385
RR RUEHGI RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNJ #0443/01 0821423
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 231423Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3386
INFO RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 0989
RUEHGI/AMEMBASSY BANGUI 1125
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0075
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1228
RUEHNM/AMEMBASSY NIAMEY 2508
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1616
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 0986
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0622
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0640
RUEHTRO/USLO TRIPOLI 0219

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000443 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICAWATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREF PREL CD SU
SUBJECT: CHAD: GOVERNMENT TROOPS TAKE ON REBELS 
 
REF: PARIS 1843 
 
 ¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY. Chadian armed forces, led by President 
Deby, moved against a Zaghawa rebel group on Chad's eastern 
border on March 20-21.  Both sides claimed victory and it is 
doubtful that Government of Chad (GOC) action dealt a death 
blow to the rebels.  Deby has bolstered his image -- but his 
gains may be shortlived.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The Chadian army moved against a rebel group on the 
border with Sudan on March 20-21 in an extensively publicized 
and widely anticipated offensive.  President Deby himself was 
flown into Abeche and Farchana by the French during the 
earlier part of the week. A clash north of Adre in Hadjer 
Marfain (Hyena Mountains) has been reported by the 
government.  UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) 
sources informed Misoff that they believed there had been a 
second clash south of Adre in Kongo Haraze.  The press has 
also reported that GOC attackers either transited or used 
Sudanese territory. UNHCR confirmed government reports that 
SCUD (Zaghawa rebel group) wounded were being taken to the 
Sudanese town of El-Geneina.  Some ten wounded Chadian 
soldiers had been taken to Abeche, and then flown to 
N'djamena for further treatment.  Although UN officials in 
Adre reported to headquarters that they had seen no wounded 
in Adre itself, Air-Serv crew told EconOff that they had seen 
wounded being brought to Adre.  UNHCR told Misoff that SCUD 
commander Raqi Ramadan was being reported as killed. On the 
GOC side, we learned through military sources that four U.S. 
Pan-Sahel Initiative (PSI)-trained soldiers were killed in 
the action. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) With both sides claiming victory, it may still be 
too early to say whether the government action decisively 
took SCUD troops based at Hadjer Marfain out of action.  The 
GOC organized a trip for journalists to Farchana to show the 
spoils of victory (similar to a trip organized after the GOC 
counter-assault in Adre in December).  However, UNHCR sources 
believed that significant numbers of Chadian rebel forces 
still remain across the border in the Suleq Arafa area of 
Sudan. 
 
¶4.  (U) UNHCR reported that throughout the week all was calm 
in the refugee camps on the eastern front. The UN security 
posture remains unchanged.  In Adre, the town closest to the 
reported action, citizens were aware of activities taking 
place some 40 kilometers north, but the town itself was not 
affected and no shooting was heard.  French soldiers were 
reported to be on standby in Farchana. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) UNHCR also informed Missoff that recruitment of 
Sudanese refugee youths appears to be taking place inside 
refugee camps, most likely by Government of Chad forces. 
They believe that some 400 were recruited from Gaga camp, 
based on reports from NGO's that are missing staff and from 
family members.  The fact that gendarmes and local officials 
are claiming ignorance would seem to validate that the 
recruitment was by the GOC rather than by Sudanese liberation 
movements. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Comment: Deby's offensive is no doubt meant to be a 
show of strength aimed at boosting his position in the run-up 
to the May 3 elections and convincing wavering supporters 
that he is still in command.  Others here are not convinced 
that will be the result.  They believe, even if Deby did come 
out on top in this battle, it will be a pyrrhic victory, 
leaving him weakened in the contest to come with forces 
grouped under Mahamat Nur and his other enemies.  His move 
against the SCUD, the rebel group drawn predominantly from 
his own Zaghawa clan, threatens to unleash the long-feared 
blood feud with the family.  Moreover, the non-Zaghawas 
fighting with him appear to be doing so as a way of getting 
back at other Zaghawa.  The more Zaghawa they can take out 
now, their thinking seems to be, the stronger their hand will 
be when it comes time to settle scores in the post-Deby era. 
Thus, contrary to what the French seem to believe (reftel), 
we side with the view that, whatever the short-term 
appearances, Deby is more likely to emerge weaker, not 
stronger, from this latest clash in eastern Chad. 
 
 
NDJAMENA 00000443  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶7.  (U) Tripoli minimize considered. 
WALL