VZCZCXRO3856
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ
DE RUEHMD #0596 0681707
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091707Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MADRID
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9093
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS MADRID 000596 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER SP
SUBJECT: ETA VIOLENCE AMID RUMORS OF IMPENDING TRUCE 
 
 
¶1. ETA carried out its second series of bombings in the last 
two days with two attacks the morning of of March 9, the 
latest in a string of 14 ETA attacks since the beginning of 
the year. The attacks, one along a highway in the Cantabria 
Region in the north of Spain near the Basque Region and a 
second along another roadway, were timed to draw attention to 
a "general strike" in the Basque Region called by ETA 
front-group Batasuna to protest the recent deaths of ETA 
members in Spanish prisons (one by apparent suicide, the 
second from natural causes).  Basque nationalist extremists 
also organized roadblocks and burned tires in their 
stronghold towns in Guipuzcoa Province, engaged in acts of 
vandalism, and called for rallies in Bilbao, San Sebastian, 
and the Regional capital of Vitoria.  This is the first 
strike called by Basque nationlist groups in nearly four 
years and the first since April 2001 organized for explicitly 
political reasons.  Interior Minister Juan Jose Alonso termed 
the strike "illegal" and vowed to maintain a climate of 
normalcy in the region.  It appears that few people joined 
the strike, with the Basque government reporting that less 
than 5 percent of the workforce took part and other observers 
reporting generally routine activity. 
 
//ETA POSTURING BEFORE PEACE TALKS?// 
 
¶2. Since the beginning of the year, the Zapatero government 
has devoted increased attention to the situation in the 
Basque Region, with an eye to initiating a viable peace 
process.  Zapatero views ETA's current weakness as providing 
a historic opportunity to end the conflict and has declared a 
willingness to engage the terrorist group, if it renounces 
the armed struggle.  ETA has not made the government's job 
easy; rumors of an impending ETA announcement of a truce have 
competed with weekly news of ETA bombings, street violence, 
and increased extortion from Basque businesses (the so-called 
"revolutionary tax").  Some observers speculate that ETA is 
making a show of force before announcing a truce, noting that 
ETA has not carried out a deadly attack in more than two 
years.  However, the opposition Popular Party (PP) has joined 
victims of terrorism organizations in roundly attacking the 
government's disposition to negotiate with ETA, pointing to 
ETA's use of previous negotiations and truces to reorganize 
and rearm itself.  The Association of Victims of Terrorism 
(AVT) and the PP organized a mass demonstration in Madrid on 
February 26 to protest rumors that the government was 
considering liberating or providing other benefits some ETA 
prisoners as a sign of goodwill. 
 
¶3. Still, rumors of a possible truce continue to swirl, 
focusing on Easter Week as the most likely opportunity. More 
recently, Spanish media have suggested an ETA announcement 
could come during March.  It would be the fourth significant 
ETA truce since 1988.  High level Socialist and moderate 
Basque nationalist leaders have hinted approvingly at the 
existence of ongoing ETA-government talks, probably in a 
third country.  Radical Basque labor leader Diez Usabiaga, 
believed to be close to ETA, indicated that such discussions 
are underway.  The PP has lambasted the Zapatero government 
for allegedly conducting talks while ETA continues to carry 
out bombings.  The PP has also criticized indications that 
the Zapatero government might be willing to relocate ETA 
prisoners closer to their families in the Basque Region, as 
part of the negotiations.  The government has flatly denied 
having any official contacts or negotiations with ETA, but 
has also fired back by noting that the Aznar administration 
conducted talks with ETA during the 1998-1999 truce that ETA 
ultimately abrogated. 
 
//LITTLE HOPE FOR A QUICK DEAL// 
 
¶4. It appears that the Zapatero government hopes to engage 
ETA and convince the group to essentially abandon the armed 
struggle and cede control to its political wing.  But despite 
ETA's failure to achieve any of its military or political 
objectives and its weakening by coordinated Spanish-French 
police action, the organization has managed to remain a 
relevant force.  More importantly, ETA has not been 
repudiated by the 150,000-strong core of the radical Basque 
nationalist movement.  Under these circumstances, ETA would 
reportedly stick to its demand of self-determination for the 
Basque Region, a political non-starter for Zapatero in light 
of strong public sentiment against granting concessions to 
ETA.  The terrorist group would also likely press for amnesty 
for ETA members and supporters, another emotionally-charged 
issue difficult for any Spanish government to confront. 
 
AGUIRRE