VZCZCXRO4010
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #2124/01 0871055
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 281055Z MAR 06
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2919
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 002124 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR GM
SUBJECT: SPD Gains Majority in Rheinland-Pfalz; Baden- 
Wuerttemberg CDU/FDP Coalition Expands Lead 
 
REF: A) Frankfurt 1273; B) 2005 Frankfurt 8530 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: March 26 state elections strengthened both 
Rheinland-Pfalz (R-P) Minister-President Kurt Beck (SPD/Social 
Democrats) and Baden-Wuerttemberg (B-W) Minister-President 
Guenther Oettinger (CDU/Christian Democrats).  Beck's popularity 
gave the ruling SPD an absolute seat majority and handed 
conservatives their worst defeat ever in the state, prompting CDU 
standard-bearer Christoph Boehr to resign.  In B-W, Oettinger 
narrowly missed an absolute majority and both the CDU and FDP 
picked up seats, ensuring a comfortable majority in the new 
parliament.  The B-W SPD lost a quarter of its voters, casting in 
doubt the future of standard-bearer Ute Vogt.  The Greens polled 
strongly in B-W but missed the five-percent threshold in R-P. 
Observers expressed relief at the poor showing of far-right and 
far-left parties in both states.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------- 
Rheinland-Pfalz 
--------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Interim results for Rheinland-Pfalz (2001 for comparison): 
 
                2006     (2001) 
                ----      ---- 
          SPD:  45.6%    (44.7%) 
          CDU:  32.8%    (35.3%) 
          FDP:   8.0%     (7.8%) 
       Greens:   4.6%     (5.2%) 
         WASG:   2.5%       - 
 
¶3. (SBU) With 45.6% of the vote, M-P Beck and Social Democrats 
achieved the unthinkable -- an absolute majority of the seats (53 
seats out of 101) in historically conservative Rheinland-Pfalz 
(the home state of former Chancellor Helmut Kohl).  Beck's broad 
popularity and voter satisfaction with the governing SPD/FDP 
coalition were key to the SPD's strong showing.  The SPD can now 
rule alone, although Beck said he would talk with the FDP/Free 
Democrats about continuing their present coalition (in power 
since 1994).  Losers included R-P conservatives (who polled only 
32.8%, an all-time low) and Greens (who failed to cross the five 
percent hurdle after 18 years in parliament).  Accepting 
responsibility for what CDU activists called a "disastrous" 
showing, Christoph Boehr announced his resignation as CDU state 
chairman and caucus chief.  CDU Landtag members Christian Baldauf 
and Josef Rosenbauer are considered the most likely contenders to 
succeed Boehr as caucus chairman. 
 
------------------ 
Baden-Wuerttemberg 
------------------ 
 
¶4. (U) The CDU, Greens, and FDP all posted gains in Baden- 
Wuerttemberg (2001 for comparison): 
 
                2006     (2001) 
                ----      ---- 
         CDU:   44.2%    (44.8%) 
         SPD:   25.2%    (33.3%) 
      Greens:   11.7%    (7.7%) 
         FDP:   10.7%    (8.1%) 
        WASG:    3.1%       - 
Republikaner:    2.5%    (4.4%) 
 
¶5. (SBU) The B-W CDU narrowly missed an absolute majority (by one 
seat) and will hold 69 of the 139 seats in the new parliament. 
The election was a debacle for Social Democrats who lost a 
quarter of their voters.  SPD standard-bearer Ute Vogt faces an 
uncertain future.  The Greens edged out the FDP to become third 
strongest party.  M-P Oettinger announced that he would hold 
coalition negotiations with all parties in parliament.  Greens 
standard-bearer Winfried Kretschmann welcomed talks with 
Oettinger, arguing that a "Black/Green" coalition would be more 
attractive to voters than the current CDU/FDP administration. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) State political observers in both states viewed the 
election results as an endorsement of the status quo and the 
grand coalition in Berlin, with M-P Oettinger and especially M-P 
Beck as the clear winners.  Oettinger's strong showing will allow 
him to cast off the shadow of predecessor Erwin Teufel and bring 
order to a ruling party known for recent in-fighting.  While 
Oettinger has hinted over the years that he could work with the 
 
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Greens, the FDP/Liberals remain the CDU's most likely coalition 
partner. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The elections will mean far-reaching changes for state 
opposition parties.  The R-P Christian Democrats look set to re- 
organize themselves under a new leadership team (NOTE: on 
election night, conservative party insiders were scrambling to 
mobilize support for new leadership while young conservatives 
told us they welcomed the debacle as a clarion call for 
"revolution" within the party's ranks -- END NOTE).  In B-W, 
Social Democrats are likely to continue in-fighting given that 
standard-bearer Ute Vogt shows few signs of leaving the political 
scene.  Greens are struggling to come to terms with their 
divergent fortunes, having exited parliament in R-P versus a near 
record showing in neighboring B-W. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Representatives of all four major political parties 
expressed relief on election night that, despite low voter 
participation (below 60% in both states), the left-wing WASG 
(Labor and Social Justice Party) and far-right Republikaner 
remained weak, with minimal impact on election outcomes.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
PASI