VZCZCXRO6809
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #1927/01 0801615
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 211615Z MAR 06
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2669
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 001927 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR GM
SUBJECT: March 26 Elections in Rheinland-Pfalz/Baden-Wuerttemberg 
 
REF: A) Frankfurt 1273; B) 2005 Frankfurt 8530 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  In the days leading up to March 26 state 
elections, Rheinland-Pfalz (R-P) Minister-President Kurt Beck 
(SPD/Social Democrats) and Baden-Wuerttemberg (B-W) Minister- 
President Guenther Oettinger (CDU/Christian Democrats) appear to 
be leading in their efforts to win re-election.  The FDP (Free 
Democratic Party) has indicated its desire to remain in coalition 
in both states.  The leftist WASG continues to poll below the 
five-percent threshold needed to enter parliament in both states, 
but could play spoiler (particularly in Rheinland-Pfalz).  The 
large number of undecided voters could mean election-day 
surprises.  Opposition leaders (R-P Christian Democrats and B-W 
Social Democrats) insist that the elections will be decided 
during this final week.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------- 
Rheinland-Pfalz 
--------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Below are polling results as of March 15: 
 
     SWR Broadcasting      Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 
     ----------------      ----------------------- 
     SPD:  43% (+ 1)              SPD:  43% 
     CDU:  35% (+ 0)              CDU:  36% 
     FDP:   9% (+ 1)              FDP:   8% 
  Greens:   6% (+ 0)           Greens:   6% 
    WASG:   3% (- 1)             WASG:   3% 
 
¶3. (SBU) M-P Beck and the SPD remain confident that they will 
gain re-election.  The ruling SPD/FDP coalition enjoys favorable 
job satisfaction numbers (56% of R-P voters support a 
continuation of the current coalition) and has maintained a 
steady lead over the CDU in polls over recent months.  The SPD is 
banking on Beck's personal popularity to carry them to victory 
(even 35% of CDU members favor him over CDU standard-bearer 
Christoph Boehr).  The CDU leadership has conceded nothing, 
promising to "fight, fight, fight" for every vote.  Pointing to 
last year's results in Schleswig-Holstein (where a CDU candidate 
defeated a popular and long-standing SPD minister-president), 
they claim the election will be decided in the final days.  As 
evidence of their determination to give Boehr every chance to 
win, the CDU is planning a blowout campaign finale in Mainz March 
23 that will include all eleven CDU/CSU minister-presidents. 
COMMENT: Despite their aggressive and high-profile campaign, 
conservatives face an uphill battle to unseat Beck.  Some party 
insiders say privately that Boehr lacks the ability to connect 
with voters in the rural state, an art that Beck has mastered. 
In a press interview, CDU Secretary General Friedrich 
Schlumberger indirectly acknowledged that Boehr's lack of 
charisma is a burden on the party, a statement he had to withdraw 
the following day.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Left Party (Linke.WASG) continues to poll below the 
five percent threshold, but a number of CDU representatives told 
us they believe the Left Party could cross the five percent 
threshold to enter parliament (which would benefit the CDU by 
siphoning votes and seats from the SPD).  A full third of the 
state electorate remains undecided. 
 
------------------ 
Baden-Wuerttemberg 
------------------ 
 
¶5. (U) The CDU/FDP coalition in Baden-Wuerttemberg leads by a 
solid margin in polls: 
                               Forschungsgruppe 
            SWR Broadcasting        Wahlen 
            ----------------        ------ 
         CDU:     46% (+ 0)          45% 
         SPD:     28% (- 1)          30% 
      Greens:     10% (+ 0)          10% 
         FDP:      9% (+ 1)           8% 
        WASG:      2% (- 1)           3% 
Republikaner:      3% (+ 1)           3% 
 
¶6. (U) The CDU has polled consistently over 40% but has declined 
slightly in recent weeks.  Some political observers still predict 
that the CDU could still gain an absolute majority in the state 
parliament.  The B-W FDP is now campaigning against its coalition 
partner, hoping to thwart a CDU absolute majority which would 
force the Free Democrats into opposition.  Social Democrats 
remain optimistic that they will pick up additional votes during 
the final days of the campaign.  A result under 30% would be a 
disaster for SPD standard-bearer Ute Vogt.  Polls indicate that 
many voters (between 30% and 46%) in B-W are still undecided, 
 
FRANKFURT 00001927  002 OF 002 
 
 
suggesting that sizable voter swings are still possible. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The March 26 state elections represent the first 
electoral test for the grand coalition in Berlin and the most 
important hurdle so far for new Baden-Wuerttemberg M-P Guenther 
Oettinger.  Attendance at election rallies so far has been weak. 
If weak voter interest results in low turnout, it could 
disadvantage the larger mainstream parties (CDU and SPD) and give 
a boost to the FDP, Greens, and smaller groups like the left-wing 
WASG and far-right Republikaner (whose supporters tend to be more 
committed).  While media observers predict a continuation of the 
present coalitions in R-P and B-W, the large number of undecided 
and weak-preference voters in both states introduces an element 
of doubt as to the final results.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶8. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
PASI