VZCZCXRO3465
PP RUEHAO
DE RUEHCV #0723/01 0761729
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 171729Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3611
RUEANHA/FAA WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 6165
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 1791
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 9999
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 1864
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 3352
RUEHAO/AMCONSUL CURACAO 0677
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 0372
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAYVF/FAA MIAMI FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000723 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PLS PASS TO DEPT OF TRANSPORTATION 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAIR VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA CIVAIR UPDATE 
 
REF: A. STATE 38908 
 
     ¶B. CARACAS 00573 
     ¶C. STATE 32811 
     ¶D. STATE 30776 
     ¶E. POST/DEPT E-MAILS 
     ¶F. BOWEN/DEPT E-MAIL 3/15 
 
This message is sensitive but unclassified, please treat 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU)  On March 15, EconCouns met with INAC General 
Manager for Air Transport, who stood firm on the March 30 
deadline to cancel U.S. carrier flights if the FAA hadn't 
sent an IASA team by then, despite an informal agreement with 
FAA for an April 17 visit.  Blanco also pushed for a meeting 
between FAA Administrator Blakey and INAC Director Paz on the 
margins of the ICAO Montreal Conference March 21-23 in order 
to provide an opportunity for "open dialogue."  Vice Foreign 
Minister Hernandez called the Ambassador later to voice her 
concern about possible reciprocal cancellation of 
Venezuelan-carrier flights, and indicated she wished to avoid 
confrontation.  EconCouns informed INAC that FAA was 
considering the BRV's request to send an FAA team to begin an 
assessment before March 30, but that it was only a 
possibility at this point.  Meanwhile, Delta Airlines is 
refunding tickets, and American Airlines is seeing a surge in 
ticket sales for its Miami route.  As it stands, INAC is 
holding firm on the March 30 deadline, and plans proceed with 
cancellations unless the FAA visit takes place before that 
date.  End Summary. 
 
---------------------- 
MIXED SIGNALS FROM BRV 
---------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  On March 15, EconCouns and EconOff met with David 
Blanco, INAC's General Manager for Air Transport (Air 
Transport authorizes routes and frequencies as well as 
negotiates market access).  Post had originally requested a 
meeting with INAC Chief Paz Fleitas, but he passed the 
meeting down to Blanco without notification (read: for 
clearly tactical reasons).  EconCouns delivered talking 
points (Ref A), explaining IASA procedures (which seemed to 
encourage Blanco about the process) and requested 
clarification of INAC's position.  Blanco replied that there 
was a "transcendental" opportunity at the March 21 Montreal 
ICAO Directors General of Civil Aviation Conference, and 
pressed for a side meeting for Paz with FAA Administrator 
Blakey in order to have an "open dialogue." 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Blanco said he could offer no clarification on 
where things stood beyond his guidance that they requested an 
FAA IASA inspection take place before March 30 or they would 
proceed with flight cancellations as announced.  EconCouns 
told Blanco that the USG had gotten very mixed signals to 
date from the BRV and that it was not in either party's 
interest to create a crisis out of what was fundamentally a 
technical issue.  EconCouns noted that Washington would 
consider the BRV's request to begin an assessment before 
March 30 (letter from INAC to Amb. Brownfield dated March 13, 
2006), but that in any event, it would be impossible to 
conclude the assessment process and make a determination by 
March 30.  (Comment: Despite the nature of the discussion, 
Blanco was very cordial, friendly, and optimistic that a 
solution would be reached, even echoing back our words that 
this was a matter that should be viewed purely from a 
technical standpoint and not a political one.  End Comment.) 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Following EconOffs' INAC meeting, Ambassador 
Brownfield received a call from Vice Foreign Minister Mari 
Pili Hernandez asking for an update on the aviation issue. 
Ambassador noted there were options Washington was reviewing, 
including the possibility of offering at least an initial FAA 
visit before March 30, but that was a pending decision.  He 
also gave her a readout of EconOffs' meeting earlier in the 
day with INAC.  Hernandez was very pleased at the possibility 
 
CARACAS 00000723  002 OF 002 
 
 
of a visit before March 30.  The Ambassador told Hernandez 
that the USG needed to hear clearly and soon from the BRV 
what their position would be with regard to the suspension, 
because the clock was ticking.  She said she wanted to avoid 
another confrontation, adding she thought the Ambassador's 
warning regarding reciprocal suspension was strong. 
Ambassador replied that it was better for everyone that we 
understood what could happen. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) On March 9, Regional Vice-President of American 
Airlines, Peter Dolara, met with Vice-President Rangel on the 
issue.  Dolara told the Ambassador he sensed a harder 
position on the part of Rangel, who wanted INAC to be taken 
seriously.  However, Rangel also said that a formal 
notification of the FAA visit would "make his life easier," 
since he was receiving pressure from Venezuelan carriers, 
implying very clearly that officially setting a date by the 
end of March would be sufficient to postpone any suspension. 
(Note: Though prior conversations between FAA and INAC had 
led to informal agreement on an April 17 inspection date, it 
is clear that INAC, and perhaps others in the BRV, have tried 
to game this politically.  End Note.) 
 
------------------------ 
CONSEQUENCES OF MARCH 30 
------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Airlines and the general public are nervous about 
the March 30 deadline, given the BRV's adamant positions on 
flight cancellations if FAA doesn't inspect by that date. 
Some U.S. carriers, such as Delta Airlines, have begun 
refunding tickets for travel after March, while American 
Airlines has seen a surge of reservations on its 
Caracas-Miami flights (the only route that would remain 
unaffected by the cuts).  If BRV and reciprocal USG route 
restrictions proceed, Venezuela-U.S. traffic would grind down 
to four daily Miami flights (3 American, 1 Aeropostal) and 
one weekly Dallas flight (American) -- a 70 percent reduction 
in bilateral air traffic. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  INAC is confident that Venezuela will reach 
Category 1 IASA classification, and has offered copies of the 
March 2005 ICAO audit report to Post and has repeatedly 
publicly stated that it should move up.  Venezuelan airlines 
are enthusiastic about the possibility of expanding their 
services to the United States with their own aircraft -- 
airlines that don't presently have routes, such as Conviasa 
(the state-owned airline) or Aserca, have publicly stated 
they'll tap into the U.S. market.  The head of ALAV, the 
Venezuelan Airline Association (which Aeropostal and Santa 
Barbara left in Jan 2006), told EconOff that economic 
constraints made the expansions wishful thinking.  (Comment: 
the airlines most likely to expand, if at all, would be the 
two with existing U.S. routes, Aeropostal and Santa Barbara. 
End Comment). 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶8. (SBU)  The BRV has given mixed signals regarding the 
firmness of the March 30 deadline -- FAA/INAC agreeing to an 
April 17 date, but later insisting the IASA visit take place 
before March 30, or else it would suspend some U.S. flights 
on that same date.  So far the BRV has played this matter 
through brinksmanship, creating a crisis and gaming the U.S. 
carriers to bring about an expedited FAA visit.  From Post's 
perspective, a possible Blakey-Paz meeting could be helpful 
as a signal, and, again from our perspective, has no obvious 
downsides.  The Bolivarians confrontational and maximalist 
negotiating style could end up with them snatching defeat 
from the jaws of victory. 
BROWNFIELD