VZCZCXRO3697
OO RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHPB
DE RUEHEG #1492/01 0681530
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 091530Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6418
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PRIORITY
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 001492 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR NEA, NEA/ELA, NEA/RA 
FOR OES, OES/IHA 
NSC STAFF FOR SINGH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TBIO AMED CASC SENV EAGR EAID EG KFLU
SUBJECT: EGYPT: AVIAN INFLUENZA UPDATE 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 1100 
     ¶B. CAIRO 1007 
     ¶C. CAIRO 1006 
 
This message is sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) H5N1 avian influenza (AI) has spread to 17 Egyptian 
governorates, and new cases are being reported daily.  The 
GOE enforced drastic measures to contain the avian influenza 
(AI) outbreak, and has decided to vaccinate poultry, but the 
poultry industry has collapsed, and promised compensation has 
not appeared, fueling mistrust of the government.  End 
summary. 
 
------------------------ 
The Scope of the Problem 
------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Since the GOE announced the first confirmed case of 
H5N1 avian influenza (AI) on February 17, the outbreak has 
spread to 17 of Egypt's 26 governorates, Gharbia being the 
most recent addition.  New cases are being reported every day 
in Sharqia, Qalyubia, and Giza; poultry has now been almost 
completely eliminated from these areas.  There have been no 
reported cases of AI infection in humans to date. 
Conflicting reports on the numbers of cases, culled chickens, 
and locations make statistics difficult to verify.  While the 
GOE,s official website 
(http://birdflu.sis.gov.eg/html/flu01001.htm) reports 
approximately 320,000 birds have been culled, GOE sources 
tell us that the number is closer to 2.5 million. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Post has learned of a significant die-off of pigs 
in Qalyubia governorate, apparently tens of thousands of 
animals.  Post has also received reports of large numbers of 
pigs being thrown into canals.  The cause of the Qalyubia 
die-off has not been determined; none of the swine pulled 
from canals have tested positive for AI.  The pig killings 
may be a reaction to Egyptian press reports claiming that 
ducks and pigs carry AI and transmit it to chickens. 
 
---------------- 
The GOE Response 
---------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The GOE moved quickly to control the outbreak by 
culling sick birds and preventing the movement, as much as 
possible, of domesticated birds.  The Ministry of Health and 
Population (MOHP) reports that 30% of infected birds have 
been found in commercial operations, while 70% have been in 
found in household flocks.  The government measures include: 
a ban on the transport between governorates or districts of 
live poultry (the ban does not apply to frozen poultry or 
eggs); a prohibition on slaughter outside licensed 
slaughterhouses; closure of all poultry shops; and a 
prohibition on keeping poultry in backyards and rooftops or 
on unlicensed small farms.  These decrees were renewed for 
another 15-day period on March 6 (see 
http://birdflu.sis.gov.eg/html/flu010168.htm) .  The GOE also 
plans to strengthen regulation of the poultry industry and to 
bolster biosecurity measures in poultry farms. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Ministry of Defense chemical units are taking the 
lead in culling poultry.  GOE policy is to cull all birds 
within a three kilometer radius of a positive H5N1 sample and 
provide LE 5 (app. $0.87) per bird compensation to farmers. 
From three to six kilometers from a positive test, GOE policy 
is to provide LE 3 per bird for feed for healthy birds 
through their life cycle and an additional LE 2 per bird if 
at the end of that cycle the producer is unable to sell the 
birds to a slaughterhouse. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) It is proving difficult to clarify how compensation 
is being handled in practice.  Many farmers express certainty 
that others have received compensation while asserting that 
they have not received any themselves.  Post has also 
received anecdotal reports of compensation fraud on the part 
 
CAIRO 00001492  002 OF 003 
 
 
of some producers who, in order to sell healthy but now 
worthless chickens, have resorted to bribing officials to 
declare their area H5N1 positive so that they may qualify for 
the compensation scheme described above. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The GOE has reportedly decided to attempt to 
vaccinate its poultry industry, and has purchased 25 million 
doses of AI vaccine from China.  The MOHP has also 
distributed 74,000 doses of Tamiflu to hospitals around the 
country as a precautionary measure.  All fever hospitals have 
been instructed to submit samples to the MOHP from any 
patients showing flu symptoms. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) To limit rapid spread of infection in future AI 
outbreaks, MOHP has proposed transforming the poultry sector 
from small-scale farming and live-bird trade into large-scale 
commercial poultry farms and government-approved processing 
plants.  If this vision is implemented, it will be a dramatic 
change for an industry that, before the outbreak, was 
conducting 90 percent of its business as live-bird trade 
through an extensive country-wide network of small-scale 
retailers.  Industry sources estimate that some $320 million 
of investment would be needed to build a large-scale 
commercial industry able to meet pre-crisis poultry demand. 
 
------------------- 
The Economic Impact 
------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Before the crisis, Egypt's $3 billion poultry 
industry employed 1.5 million workers.  Poultry, which was 
one-third the price of beef, accounted for half of the 
protein in the Egyptian diet, even more in the case of poor 
Egyptians.  The industry has been decimated not only by the 
culling of birds and closure of poultry shops, but by 
widespread fear of eating any poultry.  The manager at a busy 
downtown KFC outlet told us that the restaurant now averages 
less than 50 customers a day, compared to almost a thousand 
daily customers before the AI outbreak.  Most restaurants 
have stopped serving chicken altogether.  The collapse in 
demand has created a poultry reserve of about 30 million 
birds and 100 million eggs.   However, frozen chickens, 
processed in Egypt, are once again available in the market. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) There are no precise figures available on the loss 
to the industry, but it is clear that poultry farmers are 
being hard hit.  The Ministry of Agriculture stated that the 
industry has been losing roughly $2 million per day for the 
last three months.   The farmers claim that government 
compensation is insufficient to cover their losses.  The 
government has promised further unspecified assistance in the 
form of debt and tax relief, but such aid will not address 
the immediate financial crisis. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The Egyptian poultry industry relies on imports 
for all of its inputs.  Before the crisis, yellow corn, 
soybean products, feather meal and corn gluten were largely 
imported from the U.S.  In addition, Egypt imports 
grandparent stock and chicks from the U.S.  Feed consumption 
has dropped by 50%, and although standing feed orders have 
not been cancelled, no new orders have been tendered; the 
Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates a loss of $200 
million to the U.S. as a result. 
 
--------------- 
Public Reaction 
--------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Despite GOE claims that all is calm, there has 
been widespread general concern about the government's 
handling of the AI outbreak and a number of protests.  The 
protests have largely been by poultry workers, including one 
outside parliament on February 26 denouncing the government's 
decision to close down street merchants selling poultry. 
More recently, about 600 poultry workers demonstrated in 
central Cairo on March 1, and another group demonstrated 
March 5 in Alexandria, demanding better compensation and the 
reopening of their businesses.  The Muslim Brotherhood has 
criticized the GOE,s response to AI and has announced its 
own awareness campaign, claiming the government information 
is false. 
 
 
CAIRO 00001492  003 OF 003 
 
 
--------------------- 
Assistance to the GOE 
--------------------- 
 
¶13.  (SBU) USAID has re-directed $1.5 million from its health 
assistance budget as a set-aside for assistance to the MOHP's 
AI response, with $500,000 earmarked for an MOHP emergency 
assistance proposal and the remaining $1 million to be made 
available for long-term preparedness.  Another $140,000 
allocated for joint USAID/GOE health projects has been 
channeled into the emergency response. 
RICCIARDONE