VZCZCXRO8459
RR RUEHAST RUEHDBU
DE RUEHTA #1144/01 0900955
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 310955Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY ALMATY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4699
INFO RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT 6932
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 1653
RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT 7440
RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK 7471
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 1191
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1538
RUEHAST/USOFFICE ASTANA
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 2086

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ALMATY 001144 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN (JMUDGE), SCA/PPD (JBASEDOW), DRL/PHD 
(CKUCHTA-HELBLING) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KPAO KDEM KZ
SUBJ:  KAZAKHSTAN: UNUSUAL PUBLIC DEBATE ON SARSENBAIULY 
MURDER 
 
Ref:  Almaty 1018 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Over the past six weeks, as Kazakhstani 
politicians have grappled with the consequences of the 
murder of opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly in mid 
February, an unusually broad public debate has taken place 
among both independent and pro-government media.  The 
opposition unsurprisingly spoke out first to criticize the 
authorities for their handling of the investigation. 
President Nazarbayev's daughter and her husband followed 
suit and publicized similar criticisms of the investigation 
in their own popular newspaper and television station.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
Opposition Defines Issues of Public Debate 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Over the past six weeks, as Kazakhstani politicians 
have debated who killed opposition leader Altynbek 
Sarsenbaiuly and why, the opposition has largely framed the 
public debate.  When the crime was discovered February 13, 
official and pro-government newspapers published the 
president's condolences and started reporting factual 
developments in the case only on February 21, when President 
Nazarbayev taped a statement for official television, saying 
that those responsible would be punished, and that 
Kazakhstan was ready to cooperate with other countries 
interested in investigating the case.  (Note:  In a normal 
media environment, there would have been screaming headlines 
from day one.)  On February 14, the For a Just Kazakhstan 
(FJK) opposition movement held a press conference at which 
it demanded that Parliament convene a special session to 
discuss the investigation with law enforcement.  They also 
organized their own Public Investigation Commission to track 
the case. 
 
¶3. (U) On February 22, after the National Security 
Commmittee (KNB) issued a statement announcing the arrests 
of five members of the KNB special forces, the opposition 
Web site www.kub.kz reported that FJK's public commission 
had met and concluded that the "real killers" and 
masterminds were still free.  The commission called on law 
enforcement to ensure the safety of those arrested and asked 
the Interior Minister and General Procurator to question 
Sarsenbaiuly's political opponents, including Dariga 
Nazarbayeva, who is the president's daughter and also a 
Mazhilis deputy; her husband, Deputy Foreign Minister and 
former KNB deputy Rakhat Aliyev; presidential nephew and 
vice president of the national railroad company, Kairat 
Satybaldy; as well as Eurasia group oligarchs Aleksandr 
Mashkevich, Patokh Shodiyev, and Alidzhon Ibragimov.  The 
commission also made these demands in an open letter 
addressed to General Procurator Rashid Tusupbekov and 
Interior Minister Baurzhan Mukhamedzhanov in the February 23 
edition of FJK's weekly newspaper, Svoboda Slova. 
 
¶4. (U) On February 23, Senate administration head Yerzhan 
Utembayev was arrested and charged with ordering the 
murders.  The same day, the opposition convened a press 
conference, and FJK chairman Zharmakhan Tuyakbay demanded 
the resignation of Utembayev's boss, Senate speaker Nurtay 
Abykayev, "keeping in mind that he [Abykayev] is second in 
command, and has an opportunity to influence the 
investigation."  Tuyakbay also said Utembayev was not 
capable of planning such a "monstrous crime" alone.  FJK 
general secretary Tulegen Zhukeyev again urged law 
enforcement to ensure the safety of those arrested, saying 
their lives were in danger.  (Abykayev responded in a Senate 
press release published February 25 in pro-government and 
official media; he said he had no influence over law 
enforcement's conduct of the investigation.) 
 
¶5. (U) Tuyakbay's and Zhukeyev's comments made the February 
23 primetime TV news on centrist, independently owned 
Channel 31, pro-government tabloid KTK TV, and the February 
24 edition of pro-government tabloid Karavan, Kazakhstan's 
highest circulation weekly (220,000).  This was the first 
time that comment from opposition press conferences was 
reported by any television stations since the murder. 
 
ALMATY 00001144  002 OF 004 
 
 
Coverage by KTK and Karavan was surprising, since both are 
reputedly owned by Nazarbayev son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev. 
 
¶6. (U) The same Channel 31 news program included a report 
about the difficulty of obtaining information about the case 
and journalists having to rely on information "leaked" to 
Internet sources.  In introducing the segment, the anchor 
said, "Kazakhstan's press finds itself in a strange 
situation.  These days, information about the investigation 
of the Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly case is being reported ahead of 
official reports, citing 'certain sources.'  Official 
sources only confirm what comes out unofficially."  The 
video showed unidentified opposition members crowded at the 
entrance to the studios of the official broadcaster Khabar, 
with the narrator commenting:  "It's not clear what's going 
on, whether this is a demonstration, a petition, or handing 
a letter to management.  Some opposition members are here 
trying to get full and complete coverage with all the 
details of the murder."  The segment concluded with the 
comment, "Today journalists are not fulfilling their 
professional obligations and are instead becoming political 
tools." 
 
Sarsenbaiuly Murder First Salvo in "War of Succession"? 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶7. (U) In a February 24 article published in the opposition 
weekly Prava. Ekonomika. Politika. Kul'tura. (formerly 
Respublika), political analyst Yerlan Karin said that 
Sarsenbaiuly's murder was the beginning of a struggle 
between political forces vying to succeed President 
Nazarbayev.  On February 28, kub.kz posted several articles 
from Russian newspapers on the theme, including Vremya 
Novostey.  The Vremya Novostey article claimed that Rakhat 
Aliyev was behind the murder, and wanted to discredit the 
KNB in order to oust his rival Abykayev and thus "clear his 
way to the top."  The February 23 issue of FJK's weekly Aina 
Plus (formerly Zhuma Times) carried an interview with a 
retired KNB colonel, who cited sources close to the 
investigation and claimed Aliyev actually witnessed the 
shooting. 
 
Communist Party Leader Calls for State Commission 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶8. (U) On March 3, kub.kz published an open letter from 
Communist Party leader Serikbolsyn Abdildin to President 
Nazarbayev in which he called for a national commission 
comprised of representatives from the KNB, the General 
Procuracy, the Interior Ministry, Parliament, and FJK's 
Public Investigation Commission "to ensure an open 
investigative process."  He also said independent observers, 
doctors, and media representatives should be allowed to 
speak with Utembayev. 
 
Nazarbayeva Takes Up Opposition's Causes in Husband's Media 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) In an unprecedented move, parliamentarian and first 
daughter Nazarbayeva took up many of the same points made by 
the opposition in the official news agency Kazakhstan Today, 
as well as her husband's tabloid outlets KTK TV and the 
Karavan newspaper.  In a statement to Kazakhstan Today on 
February 23, she expressed doubt that Utembayev was solely 
responsible.  In the next day's Karavan, she claimed the 
murder was an attempt to discredit the president and to show 
he was incapable of maintaining stability.  In the March 3 
issue of Karavan, she threatened legal action against anyone 
who tried to implicate "close relatives of the president" in 
the murder.  In her March 10 Karavan article, she called for 
Abykayev's resignation - repeating FJK's February 23 appeal 
- and questioned whether oppositionist Zamanbek Nurkadilov 
committed suicide.  In yet another article on March 17, she 
called for an open and transparent investigation into the 
murders.  (Abykayev responded during a pull aside March 23 
with journalists at the Parliament, at which he called 
Nazarbayeva's statements "emotional," and said he had no 
intention of stepping down while the head of state still had 
confidence in him.) 
 
ALMATY 00001144  003 OF 004 
 
 
 
Aliyev Threatens Legal Action Against Detractors 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶10. (U) Aliyev, in response to those speculating about his 
role in Sarsenbaiuly's murder, posted a statement on March 1 
on the progressive news Web site www.mizinov.net, in which 
he said that lately several print and Internet media outlets 
had "staged a whisper campaign" accusing him and other well 
known people of having been allegedly involved in 
Sarsenbaiuly's assassination.  Aliyev said his lawyers were 
working on lawsuits against the author of the libel and 
that, "In any civilized country, false accusations of 
committing serious crimes are prosecuted by law." 
 
Otan Parliamentarian Doubts Official Versions 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (U) In a series of statements published in the 
progressive news Web site mizinov.net and the progressive 
weekly Vremya newspaper (circulation 180,000), Serik 
Abdrakhmanov, a member of the president's Otan party and 
head of the Mazhilis International Affairs, Defense, and 
Security Committee, expressed his doubts about Nurkadilov's 
suicide and Utembayev's role and motive in the Sarsenbaiuly 
murder.  On March 2, Mizinov.net posted excerpts from a 
statement Abdrakhmanov addressed to the president, in which 
he called for the president "to be closer to the people and 
closer to the truth because no one believes the official 
versions [of Nurkadilov's suicide and Sarsenbaiuly's 
murder].  The trouble is, if we do not find the truth, 
bloody crimes will continue to take place in the future." 
In an interview with Vremya March 9, Abdrakhmanov stepped 
back from a total denunciation of the Sarsenbaiuly 
investigation and said vaguely that after "very serious 
meetings" March 6 with officials involved in the 
Sarsenbaiuly murder investigation, he accepted "some facts 
supporting the official version" without specifying which 
ones.  He said he still had doubts about Utembayev and 
Nurkadilov. 
 
¶12. (SBU) In a conversation with the Ambassador on March 30, 
Abdrakhmanov said that his main reason for speaking out was 
the unconvincing and non-transparent manner in which the 
authorities were making announcements about the 
investigation.  He expressed gratitude for the FBI's 
involvement, but said it was regrettable that the 
Kazakhstani public had greater confidence in the FBI than 
their own law enforcement.  He said he had spoken to the 
President about his concerns, and was not about to back 
down.  In the meantime, he confirmed that the procuracy is 
trying to interrogate him, an approach he finds outrageous 
and not legally justified. 
 
Patriots Party Leader:  One Man Has Too Much Power 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶13. (U) In his March 9 interview with Vremya, Patriots Party 
chairman Gani Kasymov said Sarsenbaiuly's murder was 
possible because of a "lack of checks and balances" and "a 
super concentration of power in one person's hands."  In an 
apparent reference to Utembayev's confession, Kasymov said 
the investigation reminded him of 1937, when "confession was 
the queen of proof."  In rambling, angry, rhetorical 
questions, he asked, "Why does the state kill its own 
CITIZENS?  Why are special forces urged to protect 
Kazakhstan from Al Qaeda and other terrorists, while killing 
Kazakhstanis?  Why are state funds being spent to constantly 
shadow opposition leaders if it is against the law?  When 
will it [the National Democratization Commission] finally 
start working?"  (Note:  the first meeting of the National 
Democratization Commission took place on March 24, and was 
chaired by President Nazarbayev.) 
 
¶14. (SBU) COMMENT:  In the weeks since the Sarsenbaiuly 
murder, Kazakhstanis have had the chance - unusual in 
Kazakhstan, if commonplace elsewhere - to watch a heated 
political struggle play itself out in the media.  As one 
informed observer of the local political scene commented to 
 
ALMATY 00001144  004 OF 004 
 
 
us recently, "It's as if the iceberg has flipped over, and 
all the battles that usually take place out of sight are now 
in public view."  If this debate serves to increase public 
demand for independent reporting and open debate, then there 
will be at least one positive result from the death of an 
outspoken advocate for media freedom.  END COMMENT. 
 
Ordway