VZCZCXRO6546
PP RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHTA #1018/01 0801305
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 211305Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY ALMATY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4561
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNFB/FBI WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1529

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ALMATY 001018 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (J. MUDGE), DRL/PHD (C. KUCHTA-HELBLING) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: POLITICAL FALLOUT FROM SARSENBAIULY 
MURDER 
 
REF: ALMATY 887 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The murder of Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly 
continues to cause political shockwaves in Kazakhstan. 
Allegations by the opposition of First Family involvement and 
charges of high-level cover-up (reftel) have prompted first 
daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva to go on the offensive by 
accusing former KNB head Dutbayev of involvement and calling 
for Senate Speaker Nurtay Abykayev's resignation. 
Nazarbayeva's husband, First Deputy Foreign Minister Rakhat 
Aliyev, has been the focus of much public speculation. 
Meanwhile, the opposition continues its united front in 
calling on the government to conduct a transparent and 
complete investigation.  End summary. 
 
----------------- 
Dariga Lashes Out 
----------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Most political leaders from President Nazarbayev on 
down are remaining silent as the investigation progresses. 
In a move that has surprised observers of the Kazakhstani 
political scene, however, first daughter, Asar party leader, 
and Mazhilis member Dariga Nazarbayeva has come out swinging 
in the press to defend her husband Rakhat Aliyev.   In a 
March 10 article in the "Karavan" newspaper (controlled by 
Aliyev), Dariga wrote that "something is wrong in our 
country" when a person can be killed by the security forces 
in broad daylight. She also cast doubt on the official 
conclusion that former Nazarbayev insider turned 
oppositionist Nurkadilov had committed suicide, thereby 
implicitly criticizing her father.  Dariga claimed that 
former KNB head Dutbayev had immediately told President 
Nazarbayev that either Rakhat Aliyev, Timur Kulibayev, or 
presidential nephew Kairat Satybaldiy were behind 
Sarsenbaiuly's murder.  She alleged that Dutbayev was in 
league with the opposition to destabilize the political 
situation by framing Nazarbayev's relatives.  Dariga also 
called on Abykayev to resign.  She compared recent events to 
the situation in November 2001 (when the President forced the 
departure of her husband for Vienna after fierce political 
infighting), claiming this was a "second attempt to stop the 
development of society and to stop political reforms." 
 
¶3. (SBU) In a March 17 Karavan interview, Dariga called for 
the investigation into the murders to be conducted in a 
transparent manner.  She said that transparency was the only 
guarantee that the truth would come out, putting an end to 
political speculation.  Dariga also commented that it was a 
shame that the Anglo-American jury model had been rejected. 
She called for the Sarsenbaiuly murder court hearings to be 
open to the press and public in order to allay distrust in 
the judicial system.  (Note:  After extended debate, 
Kazakhstan has just adopted the "continental model" for its 
jury system.  Jurors will determine guilt or innocence 
together with the participation of the judge, rather than 
separately as in the Anglo-American system.  End note.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Harsh Rhetoric at Rally in Memory of Sarsenbaiuly 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶4. (SBU) "For a Just Kazakhstan" (FJK) organized a rally in 
Almaty on March 18 to commemorate the 40-day anniversary 
(important in Muslim belief) of Sarsenbaiuly's death. 
Banners at the rally and remarks by the speakers listed 
several purported "victims of political terror," including 
Sarsenbaiuly; his associates Baurzhan Bekbosyn and Anatoliy 
Zhurablyov; Zamanbek Nurkadilov; Oksana Nikitina, the slain 
14-year old daughter of an FJK activist; and journalist 
Askhat Sharipzhanov, who was hit by a car and killed in July 
2004 after interviewing Sarsenbaiuly, and Nurkadilov. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The rally gathered all the leaders of the opposition 
movement except Bulat Abilov, still serving his sentence for 
participation in the February 26 Sarsenbaiuly memorial 
gathering, and Alikhan Baymenov (not a member of FJK).  FJK 
leader Zharmakhan Tuyakbay was the first speaker.  He accused 
the authorities of using fierce methods to oppress the 
opposition and smother freedom of speech, dismissed the 
possibility that Utembayev was responsible, and called for a 
complete investigation.  "It doesn't matter to us who is 
responsible," said Tuyakbay, "be it someone from the 
parliament, the government, or the president's family.  They 
must be brought to justice."  Zhakiyanov spoke next, and was 
greeted with extended applause.  (After the ceremony he had 
to struggle through a large crowd of admirers wanting to 
 
ALMATY 00001018  002 OF 002 
 
 
shake his hand, kiss his cheek, or get his autograph.) 
Zhakiyanov criticized Nazarbayev for not speaking out and for 
not allowing Parliament to examine the issue, and called on 
the president to explain himself to the people.  He said that 
Nurkadilov and Sarsenbaiuly had both paid the ultimate price 
for speaking out, and called on the public "not just to talk 
and to think, but to act and to demand that the guilty be 
brought to justice." 
 
¶6. (SBU) Other speakers included Sarsenbauily's brother 
Rysbek Sarsenbayev, Irina Sovostina of the "Pokoleniye" 
pensioners' movement, Oraz Zhandosov (True Ak Zhol and FJK), 
Asylbek Kozhakhmetov (Alga), Tulen Tokhtasynov (Communist 
Party), Petr Svoik (FJK), Tulegen Zhukeyev (True Ak Zhol and 
FJK), and Amirzhan Kosanov (FJK and the former RNPK).  They 
all echoed Tuyakbay's and Zhakiyanov's calls for a complete 
investigation, demanded that Nazarbayev answer the public's 
many questions about the murder, referred to the European 
Parliament's March 16 resolution on the murders, and spoke of 
the need to work toward freedom and democracy in order to 
honor Sarsenbaiuly's memory. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Zhandosov told the crowd that he had been part of 
the February 2003 delegation to Moscow when Utembayev had 
missed a meeting at the Kremlin.  He reported that the 
following morning, Nazarbayev had surmised that Utembayev had 
gone "back to his bad habits," i.e. drinking.  Zhandosov 
denied that the incident had had any impact on Utembayev's 
career, as he had remained at the Presidential Administration 
until his boss Abykayev was replaced by Imangali 
Tasmagambetov and transferred to the Senate.  As is usually 
the case, Kozhakhmetov's remarks were the most provocative; 
he claimed that Nazarbayev had fired Dutbayev for daring to 
implicate members of the First Family in the murder.  He also 
asked why the police had not yet interrogated Aliyev. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The rally took place behind the Saryarka movie 
theater on the western outskirts of Almaty.  Organizers had 
asked to hold the event at the centrally-located Academy of 
Sciences, but the akimat instead issued the permit for the 
more remote location.  POEC chief and POL FSN estimated the 
crowd at about 2,000.  Organizers claim that 5000-6000 people 
attended.  Police were present in large numbers but did not 
appear to discourage participation or disrupt the 
proceedings.  Riot police were also present but remained in 
their buses.  (Note:  It is politically significant that 
Almaty akim Tasmagambetov, an influential political figure 
with his own aspirations to higher office, allowed the rally 
to take place unimpeded.  End note.) 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Comment:  The upheaval caused by Sarsenbaiuly's 
murder has pushed elite political infighting into the bright 
light of day.  Contacts in the opposition describe Dariga 
Nazarbayeva as 'unnerved' at the moment as the result of the 
public scrutiny and accusations.  Her unprecedented press 
statements indicate a sense of desperation, raising the 
question of whether President Nazarbayev is for the time 
being not taking sides among the various camps.  Meanwhile, 
the opposition movement has a new sense of purpose and 
energy, and increasing public visibility.  Whereas most 
observers expected For a Just Kazakhstan to fade away after 
the elections, its staff and press operation have cranked 
back up to call not only for justice for Altynbek 
Sarsenbaiuly, but also for real political reform.  One has to 
wonder if the mastermind of the murder could have foreseen 
all the results.  End comment. 
ORDWAY