VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0917/01 0792338
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 202338Z MAR 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9197
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 4917
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6110

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000917 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC BARBORIAK 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
 
 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU'S U.S. TRIP, 
WASHINGTON-BEIJING-TAIPEI RELATIONS 
 
 
¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their 
coverage March 18-20 on a railway accident in Pingtung; the freeway 
electronic toll collection system scandal; the DPP and PFP rallies 
in Taipei March 18 and March 19, respectively; and the year-end 
Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral race.  All major Chinese-language 
papers reported U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's interview 
with the Australian Broadcasting Company last Thursday.  The 
pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" carried Rice's interview by running 
a banner headline on its front page March 18 that read: "United 
States Reminds China Not to Aim Its Missiles at Taiwan."  The 
pro-status quo "China Times," on the other hand, ran the news story 
in its inside pages March 18 with a different headline: "Rice [Says] 
During an Interview with Australia Media: The United States Has the 
Responsibility to Urge Both Sides of the Taiwan Strait to Avoid 
Conflict."  The "Taiwan Daily" also ran a banner headline on its 
page two March 18 that quoted U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense 
Peter Rodman as saying: "United States Will Address the People's 
Liberation Army's Possible Showdown Actions Toward Taiwan." 
 
In addition, the "China Times" spent two-thirds of its page four 
March 20 carrying news stories and analyses on KMT Chairman Ma 
Ying-jeou's trip to the United States.  One of the news stories said 
Ma did not deny the rumors suggesting he will 'accidentally/by 
coincidence' meet with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert 
Zoellick in Washington. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "China Times" news 
analysis probed Taiwan-Washington relations over the past six years 
in terms of Washington's interactions with President Chen Shui-bian, 
and pointed out that Washington will use Ma to restrain Chen while 
Chen will use Taiwan independence as a countermeasure to restrain 
Washington.  A separate "China Times" news analysis called Ma's trip 
to the United States his first "interview" with Washington as the 
latter is very concerned about Ma's stance with regard to 
cross-Strait relations and U.S. arms procurements.  Hsu Yung-ming, 
Assistant Research Fellow at the Academia Sinica Institute of Social 
Science, opined in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" that 
Washington will put Ma under close scrutiny from the perspective of 
U.S. national interests.  An editorial in the limited-circulation, 
conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" said Ma 
is under pressure to explain to Washington why his party is still 
blocking the U.S. arms procurement bill.  An editorial in the 
limited-circulation, pro-independence, English-language "Taipei 
Times" discussed U.S. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley's 
remarks last Thursday on the cross-Strait situation by saying no one 
can blame Taiwan for trying to find out "how far it can go" without 
going too far in China's opinion, because "it cannot roll over and 
die and do nothing to maximize the scope of its freedom."  An 
editorial in the limited-circulation, pro-independence, 
English-language "Taiwan News" commented on Rice's remarks and said 
both Washington and Beijing must "accept the fact that the Taiwan 
people will continue to pursue democracy and peace, regardless of 
the PRC's suppression or enticements."  End summary. 
 
A) "Washington Uses Ma to Restrain Bian, and Bian Uses [Taiwan] 
Independence as a Countermeasure to Restrain [Washington]" 
 
Journalist Lin Shu-ling said in a news analysis in the pro-status 
quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] (3/20): 
 
"Taipei-Washington relations over the past six years since Chen 
Shui-bian has been in office [as the president] can be divided into 
two stages, with the year 2004 marking the dividing line.  Before 
2004, especially when Chen was first elected, whatever Washington 
said [to Taipei] counted; the Bian administration always took the 
initiative in preparing and handing every of Chen's draft speeches, 
be it his inaugural address or the Double Ten holiday speech, to the 
State Department for its review.  But such a situation took a sudden 
turn in 2003 when Chen disregarded Washington's warnings and 
insisted on pushing for [Taiwan's first-ever] referendum; [Chen's 
recent announcement of the] 'cessation of the National Unification 
Council (NUC) and National Unification Guidelines (NUG)' also was 
the result of a similar situation. 
 
"Bian no longer obeys whatever the United States says because he 
knows very clearly that Washington, fearing deeply that it might be 
dragged into a cross-Strait war, must act more proactively in 
mediating between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.  In addition, 
given the strategic conflicts between the United States and China, 
Washington is using Taiwan to restrain Beijing, so it cannot 
possibly tilt toward China too much.  The Bian administration thus 
believes that as long as Taiwan is able to move two steps forward, 
one step backward, and 'adjust a little,' it will be able to achieve 
some breakthroughs in the end. 
 
"This approach adopted by Chen in dealing with the United States has 
succeeded at least twice over the past six years.  Rumors have it 
that U.S. President George W. Bush was quite upset with Chen's 
 
constant 'airing of an opposing view,' but no one can prove that. 
But it is absolutely sure that Chen has given Washington a severe 
headache, or Washington would not have so many follow-up moves in 
the wake of [Chen's announcement] to 'cease the NUC and NUG.'  After 
having been beaten so badly by the Bian administration, Washington 
is evidently planning new moves with Ma Ying-jeou's current visit to 
the United States.  ... What on earth will Washington discuss with 
Ma?  Bian actually knows the answer very clearly.  ... 
 
"The pan-Green camp, in an attempt to create an anti-U.S. and 
anti-Japan image for Ma, used to tell Washington that the pan-Blue 
camp was the one that has been blocking the [U.S.] arms procurement 
bill.  Ma's trip to Washington this time will be very conducive to 
improving his relations with the United States.  But given 
Washington's flexible and resourceful approach in managing 
international affairs, the pan-Blue camp should not indulge in the 
wishful thinking that it has won U.S. support.  The key in reality 
lies in how the United States will interact with the Blue and Green 
camps and use Ma to rein in Chen.  The U.S. approach is to make sure 
that the Bian administration understands that if it fails to work 
with Washington, chances are there that Washington will turn to 
[work with Ma] and form a new triangular relationship between 
Washington, Bian and Ma. ... 
 
"Over the next two years, Bian will still have to rely on the United 
States in many aspects, but he certainly will not play the 'good 
boy' obediently in front of Washington.  Washington wants 'to use Ma 
to rein in Bian,' and Bian will counter-balance it using '[Taiwan] 
independence' to see who will win the upper hand.  A senior 
pro-independence local activist who has close interactions with Bian 
was quoted as saying that Chen has a lot of things that he can do 
during his remaining two-year term, and that Washington will have a 
difficult time if Chen really gets upset and turns against the 
United States." 
 
B) "Ma's First 'Interview' [with Washington] Carries Subtle 
Significance" 
 
Journalist Hsiao Hsu-tseng commented in a news analysis in the 
pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] (3/20): 
 
"... Ma Ying-jeou's visit to the United States has several layers of 
great significance:  First, this is his first time to visit the 
United States since he took over the helm of the KMT.  He will 
engage in direct dialogue with high-ranking American officials in 
the capacity as Taiwan's major opposition leader.  Second, Ma is a 
potential candidate for [Taiwan's] next presidential election, and 
Washington is very concerned about whether Ma's position with regard 
to cross-Strait relations and U.S. arms procurements will affect the 
U.S. interests in the future.  Washington, without doubt, will have 
to deal with Ma. ... 
 
"Ma's trip to the United States this time is his first 'interview' 
[with Washington] as a candidate for the position of future Taiwan 
leader.  In addition, it may be a new strategy of the United States 
to try to explore another channel for contacting Taiwan's opposition 
party, in an attempt to grasp a leverage to 'balance' the 
'unpredictable' political situation in Taiwan.  Whether Ma will reap 
rich harvests this time may also generate a new and subtle impact on 
the Washington-Beijing-Taipei relations." 
 
C) "The Questions Ma Ying-jeou Will Have to Answer During His Trip 
to the United States" 
 
Hsu Yung-ming, Assistant Research Fellow at the Academia Sinica 
Institute of Social Science, opined in the mass-circulation "Apple 
Daily" [circulation: 500,000] (3/18): 
 
"... As a potential pan-Blue presidential candidate for 2008, the 
Americans will definitely put Ma under close scrutiny in an attempt 
to analyze this political figure from the perspective of U.S. 
national interests.  ...  As a result, there are probably three 
questions that the Americans want to ask Ma: the first one is about 
[the KMT's] concrete list of arms procurements [from the United 
States]. ...  The second one is that the Americans are concerned 
about Ma's reported 'anti-Japan and keeping a distance from the 
United States' stance ... The last question, which is also of major 
concern to the Taiwan people, is whether Ma will say something new 
about his stance regarding cross-Strait relations. ..." 
 
D) "Leadership Needed on Arms Package" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] commented in an editorial (3/19): 
 
"As he prepares to begin a weeklong trip to the United States widely 
as a prelude to his campaign for president in 2008, Kuomintang (KMT) 
Chairman Ma Ying-jeou is already under pressure to explain why his 
 
party is still blocking a major arms deal involving U.S. supplies. 
... While he has yet to reveal exactly what the KMT will propose and 
how it will differ from the government-proposed arms package blocked 
by the KMT and its allies, it is widely believed that Ma will 
prioritize the importation of some weapons, while proposing to 
consider other items in separate, future budget reviews. 
 
"We hope that Ma can propose a level-headed compromise on the arms 
issue so that the modernization of our armed forces will not be 
permanently harmed. ...However, we hope that Ma can tell our 
American friends that while we understand their frustration with the 
seemingly endless delays, they should not oversimplify our situation 
and interpret it as defeatism, either. ...  While it is true that 
some of our 'pan-blue' politicians have downplayed the military 
threat posed by communist China, at the same time Ma needs to tell 
his American hosts that military budgets in Taiwan are subject to 
the same kinds of political give-and-take that they face in the U.S. 
Congress. ... 
 
"If Ma can be forthcoming and reasonable on this issue, American 
confidence in our system of government will increase and Washington 
will have no reason to fear a change of power in the next 
presidential election.  But the KMT and its 'pan-blue' allies will 
have to make sure that any proposals made by Ma are taken seriously 
and efforts are made to resolve the arms budget conflict in spite of 
President Chen's political antics." 
 
E) "Everybody Loses in a War" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (3/19): 
 
"Last week, US President George W. Bush's national security adviser 
Stephen Hadley hit the bull's-eye by commenting that 'everybody 
loses' in the event of a clash in the Taiwan Strait.  The 'everyone' 
referred to not only Taiwan and China, but also the US and the 
entire region. ...  Everyone in Taiwan knows that China has 
threatened to use force if Taiwan unilaterally declares 
independence.  Without a doubt, that is a step that the Taiwanese 
government will not carelessly make, regardless of who holds the 
presidency.  Add in the fact that the majority of the people in 
Taiwan are not ready at this point to directly provoke Beijing this 
way. 
 
"Instead, the more pressing question for Taiwan at this moment is 
how far can it go without raising the 'independence' red flag for 
the Chinese government?  Can Taiwan participate in international 
organizations such as the UN and the WHO?  Can Taiwan draft a new 
constitution that meets its current practical needs?  No one really 
knows.  That is why the Taiwanese government has to find out in an 
incremental fashion and through trial and error - a process which 
has sparked tensions and concerns from Beijing and the US.  However, 
one can hardly blame the Taiwanese government; it cannot roll over 
and die and do nothing to maximize the scope of its freedom. ... 
 
"The truth of the matter is 'everybody wins' if Beijing continues to 
thrive economically and, even more importantly, becomes fully 
democratized.  The people of Taiwan may just choose unification 
voluntarily then.  Beijing would not have to get into a war with 
Taiwan and the risk becoming an enemy of the entire world - the US 
in particular.  So while Bush's call for the democratization of 
China in his 'National Security Strategy' report last week is 
nothing new, it reflects the truth." 
 
F) "U.S. Security Policy Merits Serious Look" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] wrote in an editorial (3/20): 
 
"... As Rice pointed out, Washington's gravest concern lies not only 
in Beijing's continued double-digit increase of the military budget 
but also in the PRC's grave lack of transparency in decision-making 
process. ... Since Washington and the Chen administration have 
reached a consensus on how to interpret the 'cessation' of the NUC 
and NUG, both sides should face up to the reality that Beijing's 
military ambitions constitute a 'clear and present danger' to the 
Asia Pacific region. ... 
 
"The publication of the U.S. National Security Strategy Report for 
2006 is a timely reminder to those, such as KMT Chairman Ma 
Ying-jeou, who have depicted a fanciful vista of an ultimate 
unification between Taiwan and China. ... Most importantly, Beijing, 
and Washington as well, must accept the fact that the Taiwan people 
will continue to pursue democracy and peace, regardless of the PRC's 
suppression or enticements.  Bush should press Hu to face this 
reality and sincerely engage Taiwan's democratically-elected 
government in dialogue without preconditions. ..." 
 
YOUNG