VZCZCXYZ0021
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0761/01 0680816
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 090816Z MAR 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8975
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 4829
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6026

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000761 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC 
BARBORIAK 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. AND CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS 
 
 
¶1. Summary: As Taiwan'smajor Chinese-language dailies 
centered their reporting March 9 on the government's 
management of state-run property, Taiwan's foreign 
relations, and other local issues, coverage also focused on 
the aftermath of President Chen Shui-bian's announcement of 
the cessation of the National Unification Council (NUC) and 
National Unification Guidelines (NUG).  The pro-independence 
"Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, ran a news story on 
its page two that quoted TECRO Chief David Lee as saying 
Taiwan and the United States will soon reach a consensus 
over the NUC and NUG matter.  The pro-independence "Taiwan 
Daily" ran a banner headline on its front page that read: 
"[Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard] Armitage 
Says the Cessation of the NUC and NUG Will Not Affect Cross- 
Strait Relations."  The sub-headline added: "Former U.S. 
Deputy Secretary of State Visits Taiwan and Says Beijing's 
Reaction [Toward the NUC and NUG Matter] Is Within 
Expectations.  Supports Taiwan's Push for a New Constitution 
As Long As It Is in Line with [the Island's] Public 
Opinion."  The "Liberty Times" and "Taiwan Daily" ran in 
their inside pages an opinion survey released by Taiwan's 
Straits Exchange Foundation that reported: 33.1 percent of 
those polled said they support Taiwan independence; 26.9 
percent say they support maintaining the status quo; and 
21.8 percent say they support unification with China. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "Liberty 
Times" editorial reflected on the cross-Strait crisis in 
1996 and called on the government to pass the U.S. arms 
procurement package as early as possible.  A "Taiwan Daily" 
editorial urged Washington to pay attention to Taiwan's 
mainstream public opinion, saying that the cessation of the 
NUC and NUG is a road that Taiwan must follow.  An editorial 
in the limited-circulation, pro-independence, English- 
language "Taipei Times" strongly criticized Washington 
officials, saying that so along as they try to analyze 
Taiwan through the lens of what best serves the U.S. 
interests, their understanding of Taiwan will be wrong.  Lo 
Chih-cheng, executive director of the Institute for National 
Policy Research, also opined in the "Taipei Times" that with 
the conclusion of the NUC matter, "Taiwan has won the right 
to interpret the `status quo' and to interpret what 
constitutes a change to the `status quo.'"  Washington 
correspondent Norman Fu, writing for the pro-status-quo 
"China Times," described the Chen administration's current 
mood as "waiting for the other shoe to drop." End summary. 
 
A) "China Test-fired Missiles at Taiwan Ten Years Ago; What 
About Taiwan in the Future?" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000] 
editorialized (3/9): 
 
". Over the past ten years, China's national defense budget 
has increased at a two-digit rate; it now ranks the third 
highest in the world, next to that of the United States, and 
Russia.  Even the world's superpower, the United States, is 
very concerned that China's non-peaceful rise will seriously 
threaten the world's peace and stability.  In the face of 
China's military threat, Taiwan should pass the [U.S.] arms 
procurement package as early as possible so that Taiwan has 
the capabilities to safeguard the island's national security 
and protect the lives and property of the Taiwan people, as 
well as its democratic system.  It is a pity, however, that 
the opposition parties are blocking the arms procurement 
bill and they do not recognize Taiwan as an independent 
sovereign state. They refuse [to accept] the island's 
elected government and seek to block every proposal made by 
the government; it seems they are standing by China's side 
and have no concern for the Taiwan people.  Judged from all 
these [signals], it seems that even though it has been a 
decade since the cross-Strait crisis of 1996, the latent 
crisis in the Taiwan Strait has only become more serious. 
The 23 million people of Taiwan ., as a result, should unite 
together to be prepared for possible future perils and 
threats.  All the more, [we] should strengthen Taiwan's 
security and do our best to develop [Taiwan's] economy." 
 
B) "The United States Should Pay Attention to Taiwan's 
Public Opinion That Loves Peace and Opposes Aggression;  It 
Should Attach Great Importance to China's Intention to Use 
Force to Annex Taiwan and Its Aggressiveness" 
 
The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 100,000] 
wrote in an editorial (3/9): 
 
". It seems that the United States has deliberately used 
some diplomatic maneuvering to spin Taiwan's `cessation of 
the NUC and NUG.'  Even though this development was a result 
of Taiwan's opposition parties' malicious attempts to create 
trouble by [playing with the words] 'cease? abolish?', the 
international community seems to have failed to realize that 
the `cessation of the NUC and NUG' is a road that 
`democratic Taiwan' must follow.  This is because the Taiwan 
people want to protect their homeland from being annexed and 
turned into part of the territory of the `authoritarian 
China.'  When Washington showed its concern [over Taiwan's 
cessation of the NUC and NUG] and when [the Taiwan 
government] designated the `Anti-Aggression Day' as a 
national holiday, we should speak out loud to the 
international community to let the world know Taiwan's 
determination to pursue the universal values of democracy!" 
 
C) "Is the US Asleep at the Wheel?" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (3/9): 
 
"US politicians and military officers think that Taiwan 
exists solely for the benefit for - or as a detriment to - 
US-China relations.  This blissfully egocentric attitude has 
been the source of much confusion in cross-strait relations, 
and could lead Washington to make a major miscalculation 
jeopardizing its strategic position in the Western Pacific. 
The problem is that the US has demonstrated it has little 
understanding of the forces that drive domestic politics in 
Taiwan.  Taiwan's relationship with China is merely one part 
of the equation for local politicians, and they do not score 
points by keeping their mouths shut about it. . 
 
"So long as Washington's officials and think tanks try to 
analyze Taiwan through the lens of what best serves US 
interests, they are going to get it wrong.  At a Senate Arms 
Services Committee hearing on Tuesday, this mentality was on 
full display. .  From the senator's [i.e. Senator John 
Warner] perspective, Chen acted `inappropriately' because 
his decision complicated things for the US.  Taiwan may owe 
a lot to the US, but his certainly doesn't mean that 
Washington can expect to dictate the decisions made by 
Taiwan's elected officials. . 
 
"Clearly Chen believes that he and his party stand to gain 
from getting tough with China, and the council [i.e. NUC] 
decision was a part of this strategy.  Surely this is not 
beyond the understanding of those in the US Senate. . 
Unfortunately for the large number of officials in the US 
who would rather Taiwan just keep its mouth shut and sit 
dutifully in the corner, every indication is that local 
politicians will continue to shake things up.  So since some 
in Washington appear to need to have the situation spelled 
out kindergarten-style, here it is: Until (at least) the 
presidential election in 2008, expect cross-strait relations 
to be a headache.  There are going to be some bitter 
political battles fought here between the DPP and the 
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), and much of the fighting 
will be over issues that strike at the heart of Taiwan's 
relationship with China.  That will mean the US will have to 
be very proactive in dealing with Taiwan.  Is it prepared to 
be so?" 
 
D) "NUC Spat May Herald New Sense of Mission" 
 
Lo Chih-cheng, executive director of the Institute for 
National Policy Research, opined in the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] (3/9): 
 
"President Chen Shui-bian's announcement to `cease' the 
National Unification Council and its guidelines highlighted 
the US' passiveness in promoting cross-strait dialogue. . 
Clearly, Washington is the only one that can push Beijing to 
consider the restart of talks with Taipei.  However, 
although Washington regards itself to be a facilitator to 
cross-strait talks, if it only advises Beijing orally, the 
effectiveness has been proven limited.  From now on, 
Washington will need to take proactive moves to push Beijing 
into a dialogue with Taipei. 
 
"Chen's announcement has also underlined the necessity for 
the US to review its balancing role on the cross-strait 
issue.  Washington has always defined the `status quo' in 
the Strait as `no independence, no war' - based on the 
principle that no one shall change the `status quo' 
unilaterally.  But its concern over the `independence' part 
of the equation has far outweighed its concern for `no war.' 
.  US tolerance will only allow China to go further, pushing 
Taiwan toward being united by China or even annexed.  If 
Taiwan does not fight back, then the `status quo' is likely 
to drift toward a situation unfavorable to Taiwan. 
 
"Therefore, since Washington has only had a minimal response 
to Beijing's `no war' pronouncements, Taipei deserves the 
right to draw a red line between itself and Beijing.  . The 
cessation of the unification council and guidelines is 
Taiwan's declaration to the international society: We will 
never tolerate China's irrational threats.  In short, in 
order to secure peace and safety in the Strait, in addition 
to righting the military balance, we need to pursue 
political deterrence.  Taiwan must also strive for the right 
to define and judge the `status quo,' while making its 
bottom line clear and give itself an unassailable position. 
The NUC incident was finally ended by `one cessation, with 
each side making its own interpretation.'  Through this 
action, Taiwan has won the right to interpret the `status 
quo' and to interpret what constitutes a change to the 
`status quo.'  This may well be a turning point." 
 
E)  "[Chen Shui-bian] Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop" 
 
Washington correspondent Norman Fu said in the "Washington 
Outlook" column in the pro-status quo "China Times" 
[circulation: 400,000] (3/9): 
 
". Since the U.S. State Department dealt a heavy blow to the 
Bian administration last week, the latter has become smarter 
by laying low or even playing deaf and blind and not daring 
to say anything.  But still, [the Bian administration] is 
trying to deceive itself and others by spreading the news 
about how inconsistent various agencies inside the Bush 
administration have been in handling Taiwan's `cessation of 
the NUC and NUG.'  In reality, the U.S. government, ranging 
from the White House to the State Department and to the AIT 
Taipei Office, have been acting uniformly and undisputedly 
[regarding the NUC matter].  The Bian administration spread 
the news out of wishful thinking, mainly because it is 
trying to deceive those Taiwan people who have no clue of 
what's going on. .  [Let's] just hope that when `the other 
shoe drops,' it drops lightly and not heavily and that it 
`knocks Bian out.' ." 
 
KEEGAN