VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHWL #0133/01 0522102
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 212102Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
TO RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
INFO RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2408
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000133 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/ANP 
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA LIZ PHU 
PACOM FOR J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NZ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF GENERAL ABIZAID TO NEW 
ZEALAND 
 
Classified By: William McCormick, Ambassador, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d 
) 
 
¶1.  (C) Mission New Zealand warmly welcomes your visit on 
23-25 January.  The Government has just returned from its 
lengthy Christmas and summer holiday period and has real 
anxiety that it is vulnerable to opposition attacks in a 
number of areas, including foreign and defense policies and 
the Government's less than optimal relations with Washington. 
 The officials you meet with will therefore be anxious to 
court you, and to assure you that there are more things that 
unite our countries than divide us.  You are arriving in New 
Zealand at a time when the government is attempting to set 
aside, rather than address, recent strains in the U.S.-New 
Zealand relationship in hopes of security and a bilateral 
free trade agreement (FTA).  NZ has stepped up cooperation in 
the global response to terrorism, with contributions to 
Operation Enduring Freedom, to Iraq reconstruction (while 
emphasizing that its contributions are based on a "principled 
position" in support of UN commitments), and to the 
Proliferation Security Initiative.  Although the government 
remains hopeful for an FTA, New Zealand appears to have begun 
to accept the message that the U.S. will not open 
negotiations anytime soon.  Nonetheless, a common belief 
among New Zealanders is that, because of New Zealand's stance 
on the Iraq war, or its anti-nuclear legislation, the U.S. is 
punishing the country by refusing to engage in FTA talks. 
 
¶2.  (C) The Labour Government appears to have recovered some 
public support since its near loss to the National Party in 
September's general elections.  PM Helen Clark remains an 
extremely effective manager, even appearing for the moment to 
have quashed Foreign Minister Peters' tendency to go off the 
foreign policy reservation.  But Labour's recovery may have 
less to do with its political prowess than with the fact that 
the National Party has so far failed to mount an effective 
opposition.  New Zealand, a former ally, desires much from 
the U.S. but is not willing or able to give much in return. 
Prime Minister Clark, in power since 1999, has criticized the 
President and U.S. policy many times.  Her political cohorts 
have done the same.  The periods leading to the U.S. 
elections in 2004 and the New Zealand elections in September 
2005 were filled with anti-U.S. rhetoric.  Helen Clark, as 
well as most of the politicians in New Zealand, seeks the 
coveted FTA with U.S., mainly because Australia got one, and 
believe that deploying troops to Afghanistan in support of 
Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) warrants it on strategic 
grounds. 
 
¶3.  (C) NZ Security Policy and Anti-Nuclear Legislation: New 
Zealand,s anti-nuclear legislation, and its effect on 
security issues, remains a key bilateral irritant.  The 
policy, which prohibits nuclear-armed or nuclear-powered 
vessels from entering NZ waters and ports, dates from 1985 
and was enshrined in legislation in 1987.  The legislation 
forced the United States to suspend its ANZUS defense 
alliance relationship with New Zealand, which was the intent 
of the Labour back-benchers pushing the legislation. After 
President Bush,s September 1991 announcement that tactical 
nuclear weapons would be removed from both surface vessels 
and submarines, New Zealand Prime Minister James Bolger 
appointed an independent commission to study the safety and 
environmental aspects of nuclear-powered ships.  The 
commission,s report, released in December 1994 confirmed the 
safety of these ships.  Despite this finding, many New 
Zealanders continue to support the anti-nuclear legislation, 
even while hoping for warmer relations with the United 
States.  In the last couple of years, the Embassy has been 
able to stimulate a welcome public discussion in the New 
Zealand media and some political sectors on the costs to New 
Zealand of this legislation. 
 
¶4.  (C) New Zealand Defense Force: The NZDF consists of 
approximately 8600 active duty personnel (4400 army, 2200 air 
force and 1800 navy).  The Chief of Defense is Air Marshal 
Bruce Ferguson, who finishes his four-year contract in 
February 2006.  He has been extended to 30 April 2006 to 
allow the new government to solicit for and review applicants 
for his position.  There are a total of 22 flag or general 
officers in the NZDF.  There are no minimum criteria for 
applying for the CDF position except that they stand in good 
favor of the government.  Ferguson himself was selected over 
more senior candidates and was promoted from one-star to 
three-star upon his appointment.  Most likely to be next CDF 
 
) current Air Force Chief, Air Vice-Marshal John Hamilton; 
current Army Chief, Major General Jerry Mateparae; or Joint 
Forces Commander, Major General Lou Gardiner. 
 
-  The Army combat forces include two infantry battalions, 
two logistics battalions, one artillery regiment, one 
engineering regiment and a Special Air Service (SAS-special 
forces) group.  The army has been the mainstay in the 
deployments to Afghanistan with a 100 plus personnel 
deployment to the Provincial Reconstruction Team in Bamyan 
and a 60 plus SAS personnel deployments to Bagram.  The 
current SAS deployment ended November 2005 and attrition and 
perstempo will prevent another SAS deployment for at least a 
year.  The PRT deployment is scheduled through to September 
2006, but most indications from MinDef Phil Goff are that the 
deployment will be extended. 
-  The Navy consists of two warships (Anzac class frigates), 
a support-supply ship and numerous patrol and small support 
vessels.  There is one navy base - located in Auckland.  The 
navy has under contract seven new vessels being built.  One 
multi-role vessel designed to carry troops and equipment into 
benign ports (its sister ship is a ferry in Europe).  The 
other six vessels under construction are a combination of 
offshore patrol vessels (2) and inshore patrol vessels (4) to 
monitor maritime activities in New Zealand's EEZ.  The two 
frigates have provided support to OEF. 
 
-  The Air Force consists of five C-130, six P-3, two B-757 
and 14 Iroquois helicopters.  The Clark-led government 
disestablished the combat air force in 2001 putting up their 
A-4 jets for sale and canceling their F-16 lease contract. 
The Air Force has been relegated to a transport and maritime 
patrol entity.  P-3 planes have been used with good results 
in Arabian waters, in support of OEF, for patrolling and EW 
intercepts. The C-130s have also provided support in the 
CENTCOM AOR.  In 2005, the Ministry of Defense announced the 
awarding of a contract to purchase NH-90 helicopters to 
replace the aging Iroquois fleet.  Delivery is not expected 
until 2009.  In addition, upgrades and life extensions are 
programmed for the C-130s, P-3s and B-757s. 
 
-  Prime Minister Clark instituted a defense policy that 
favors international peacekeeping, at the expense of 
interoperability with U.S. forces and the ability to 
contribute to regional security missions.  New Zealand has 
remained very active in international security and 
peacekeeping.  The NZDF participated in the first Gulf War 
and in Operation Enduring Freedom, and contributed 
peacekeepers in Cambodia, the former Yugoslavia, Somalia, and 
in East Timor.  More recently, New Zealand police and 
military participated in the Australian-led Regional 
Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands (RAMSI), as well as 
participating in reconstruction efforts in Iraq and 
Afghanistan. 
 
¶5.  (C) Iraq:  New Zealand opposed Operation Iraqi Freedom on 
the basis that it lacked UN sanction.  In fact, PM Clark 
stated there wouldn't have been an Iraq war if Al Gore had 
been elected president.  NZ did contribute to post-conflict 
reconstruction following the passage of UNSCR 1483, in the 
form of a 61-person NZDF engineering team deployed in Basra 
in southern Iraq under British command from September 2003 
until September 2004.  New Zealand has pledged assistance of 
NZ$10 million (approximately US$6.5 million), mainly through 
UN agencies and the red cross but including NZ$1 million in 
direct aid to help rehabilitate the Iraqi agriculture 
ministry building in Baghdad.  To this day, however, PM 
Clark, DM Goff and other politicians still criticize the U.S. 
involvement in Iraq. 
 
¶6.  (C) US-NZ Free Trade Agreement: GNZ Still Pushing: 
Despite increasing recognition among GNZ officials that 
negotiations with the U.S. on a free-trade deal are unlikely 
to occur in the near term, leaders have continued to put an 
unjustifiably positive spin on any remarks U.S. officials 
have made about the chances for an agreement.  The U.S. does 
not rule out eventual negotiations with New Zealand but it 
most likely won't be before the Trade Promotion Authority 
expires for the Bush administration in 2007.  An FTA would 
offer U.S. producers little opportunity to expand sales in 
this small market whereas New Zealand producers would have 
significant opportunity to expand sales, particularly in 
meat, dairy and wine.  New Zealand has also expressed concern 
over the US-Australia FTA disadvantaging New Zealand in that 
 
 
foreign investment might be diverted to Australia in 
preference over New Zealand.  We have suggested that New 
Zealand should look at its restrictive regulations, tax 
regime and hostile attitude as reasons for foreign investment 
being diverted elsewhere. 
 
¶7. (C) Ministers:  Helen Clark, Prime Minister since 1999 
sidles up to the U.S. when convenient, otherwise, her 
comments toward the U.S. are openly hostile in tone and 
substance.  The former activist university professor is the 
key architect to the 1980s anti-nuclear policy and subsequent 
anti-nuclear legislation.  Her position, however, was 
significantly weakened in the 2005 elections.  The PM should 
be told that a return to ANZUS is not necessarily a U.S. goal 
but a less ad hoc relationship might be of interest.  We do 
not want to bring nuclear-powered vessels into New Zealand 
but can't afford to concede policies to those who would 
restrict access by legislation.  We can work with an 
anti-nuclear policy but not with a law that discriminates 
directly against the U.S. 
 
-  Minister Goff:  Defense Minister Phil Goff is a Helen 
Clark loyalist and Labour Party stalwart.  He makes constant 
references to his two nephews serving as officers in the U.S. 
Army pretending to completely understand the American point 
of view but then, when convenient for political purposes, 
trashes U.S. policy or decision-making.  Mr. Goff is astute, 
savvy and politically experienced and is not easily rattled. 
Like the Prime Minister, he argues for an FTA and states that 
NZ can have a frank and open dialogue with the United 
States...as long as discussions don't involve the nuclear 
issue. 
Goff is likely to push for further relaxation of US military 
restrictions on New Zealand.  He will point to New Zealand's 
participation with US forces in Proliferation Security 
Initiative exercises as well as our joint work in Afghanistan 
as proof that the current restrictions are outdated and 
counterproductive.  You may want to explain to Goff why our 
interests elsewhere around the world prevent us from lifting 
the restrictions, and why New Zealand's policies hurt these 
interests.  Goff is also the Minister for Trade, hence his 
push for an FTA. 
 
-  Minister Peters:  Foreign Minister Winston Peters is a 
career politician who heads the New Zealand First Party. 
Because of Labour Party's recent very narrow win in the 
election, and strong gains by the National Party, Helen Clark 
had to form a piecemeal government with odd bedfellows. 
Winston Peters' assignment as Foreign Minister was one of the 
concessions made by Helen Clark to gain his party's support. 
He is Foreign Minister OUTSIDE of the Cabinet, however, which 
still has many people in, and out of, New Zealand scratching 
their heads.  It could be a way of scapegoating Mr. Peters 
should the government fail and a new election is required. 
During your meeting, Peters is not likely to follow Goff's 
attempts to gloss over US-NZ differences, and may emphasize 
that he wants to improve bilateral relations.  Although PM 
Clark (and to some extent Goff) hold the real power on 
foreign affairs issues, Peters is a master debater who should 
not be written off.  We recommend you tell him that U.S. 
officials would welcome hearing his ideas on how both sides 
can rebuild trust.  Additionally, Mr. Peters recently stated 
that he thought the U.S. didn't appreciate all the work NZ 
does in the Pacific region.  As Admiral Fallon noted to the 
Prime Minister and Defense Minister when he was here 
recently, the United States deeply appreciates the work that 
New Zealand does when it comes to critical security and 
stability issues in the region.  Mr. Peters, unfortunately, 
did not meet with ADM Fallon during the Admiral's recent 
visit. 
 
¶8.  (C)  Miscellaneous:  PM Clark announced to the press she 
was meeting you on Thursday and then her press secretary told 
the press gallery to keep it under wraps for a while. 
Wellington Newspaper Dominion Post published the remarks and 
also said the press secretary was trying to keep it from 
being published.  We have sent a copy of the article to your 
staff. 
-  The UN Report on the recommendation of closing the prisons 
in Guantanamo and the re-release of Abu Ghraib prison photos 
has been getting some press time in New Zealand.  You will 
most likely be asked about these at your media event. 
- Former President Clinton will be visiting Auckland (on a 
non-U.S. government trip) during your visit. 
 
McCormick