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DE RUEHDG #0508/01 0441757
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P 131757Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO
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UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 000508 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/EPSC, INR/IAA; 
USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; TREASURY FOR OASIA-J LEVINE; 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION; 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS 2006 SERIES #1: LOOKING TOWARD 
THE MAY 16 ELECTIONS 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) This is the first cable in a series reporting on 
the upcoming elections in the Dominican Republic . 
 
Election Series #1:   Looking Toward the May 16 Elections 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
On May 16 Dominican voters will choose all 32 senators, 178 
representatives (up from the current 150 members of the lower 
house of congress), and 2228 municipal mayors and city 
council members to serve from 2006-2010.  The two major 
opposition parties will present a unified list in 25 of the 
32 provinces.  The three major political parties and 21 minor 
ones await distribution of 593 million pesos (17 million 
dollars) in public funding for their campaigns.  Only the 
ruling PLD has announced its candidates, but no matter - the 
Central Election Board (JCE) on January 26 declared the 
campaign open, and candidates' caravanas hit the streets 
almost immediately. 
 
Only a year and a half ago President Fernandez defeated 
incumbent Hipolito Mejia by 57 percent to 34 percent.  The 
Dominican Republic is again working up its pre-electoral 
emotions, though not to the fever pitch of that presidential 
contest. 
 
The Stakes 
- - - - - - - - 
 
For both the government and the opposition, the strategic 
objective will be to control congress and as many of the 151 
municipal governments as possible.  Twenty-six new 
municipalities have been created since 2002.  The opposition 
PRD now holds most senate seats, a plurality of the lower 
house, more than two-thirds of the mayoral positions, and 
many of the city council seats.  The partisan split between 
the executive and legislative branches since Fernandez took 
office has slowed approvals of needed fiscal reforms and 
DR-CAFTA ratification.  Relations between the National Palace 
and city halls have frayed over the past 18 months, leading 
to a testy confrontation in January over mayors' 
accountability for their use of funds provided by the central 
government.  Fernandez had similar trouble with cohabitation 
in his 1996-2000 term; his popularity sank and the PLD 
candidate to succeed him in the 2000 election placed third. 
 
A New Litmus Test: Pink vs. Purple 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
Pink.  The PRD and PRSC have decided they can best recover 
from their 2004 defeat by combining forces to protect their 
legislative and municipal turf.  The PRD anticipates some 
erosion, but expects to retain a majority in the Senate and a 
plurality in the House of Representatives and many local 
offices.  The PRSC, which sank to less than 9% of the 
national vote in 2004, simply hopes to survive as a political 
force.  Both suffer from divided leadership.  Both fear the 
PLD will use government resources to boost its candidates' 
appeal, as Mejia's PRD did in 2004.  The antidote is the 
"pink alliance" of the white PRD and red PRSC, a complex 
accord to run common candidates for most of the jobs up for 
election.  The unprecedented coalition of these historical 
adversaries will, they hope, enable them to shape the 
legislative agenda and compel more government cooperation 
with the opposition's city halls. 
 
PRD secretary general Orlando Jorge Mera and PRSC secretary 
general Vctor Gomez Casanova, younger politicos with a 
modern aura, have worn down entrenched local party chiefs and 
 
fended off misgivings of prominent elders including PRSC 
president Federico "Quique" Antun Batlle.  Leaders of both 
parties say the alliance is a fait accompli soon to be 
formalized and notified to the JCE by March 2, the deadline 
for registering party alliances.  PRD president Ramon 
Alburquerque and Jorge Mera have been consistently positive 
about the alliance.  The PRSC's favorable decision at an 
assembly January 29 is being viewed as a victory not only for 
Gomez Casanova but also for his political mentor, influential 
Dominican Municipal League boss Amable Aristy Castro ) 
reputed to be seeking a presidential candidacy in 2008. 
 
The alliance accord will include running common candidates 
for all elected positions in the National District and 26 of 
the 31 provinces, according to Aristy Castro and Gomez 
Casanova.  In three provinces, the parties will run their 
candidates independently; in one province, there will be 
common candidates only at the congressional level; in one 
more, only the municipal candidacies will be in common.  Both 
parties have to convince local cadres to abandon their 
preferred candidates ) many of them close friends or 
relatives -- and support former political adversaries. 
National leaders are betting that most of the disgruntled 
will jump on the train as the campaign gets underway and that 
the recalcitrant will forgo the elections rather than bolt to 
the PLD.  The alliance is to be signed February 10 and 
launched at a ceremony February 28. 
 
That said, the alliance is likely to fail in a few localities 
and lose some influential dropouts.  For example, followers 
of a PRD mayor in the capital suburb of Boca Chica have 
protested vocally and visibly at national party meetings.  We 
have been told that even where both parties support a popular 
mayor as the alliance candidate, for example in Santo Domingo 
North, we have been told that PRD members will refuse to vote 
for PRSC candidates for the House of Representatives. 
Prominent Reformistas Hector Rodriguez Pimentel and Angel 
Lockward have publicly opposed the alliance and say they and 
five other PRSC leaders will ally with the PLD.  These 
dissidents could link up with senior PRSC figures in the 
Fernandez administration, led by Foreign Minister Carlos 
Morales Troncoso. 
 
To its detractors, the alliance is an undignified scheme to 
hand out opportunities for power and graft, in disregard of 
public interest.  The secretaries general have insisted to us 
that it is about more than patronage and personal ambition; 
their parties are preparing a "national agenda."  Drafters 
include PRD intellectuals ex-labor minister Milton Ray 
Guevara, ex-education minister Yvelisse Prats de Perez, and 
ex-director Tirso Mejia Ricart; for the PRSC, Amable Aristy 
Castro, representative Licelott Marte de Barrios, and 
ex-Central Bank governor Luis Toral. 
 
Purple: The Government,s Opening Shots. 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
In a speech before PLD party members on February 5, President 
Fernandez shifted from his accustomed professorial discourse 
into impassioned, raised-fist rhetoric; he denounced the 
alliance for promoting "ungovernability" and "instability" 
and trying to impose "the tyranny of the majority" in 
congress.   "He's running scared," clucked the media and the 
opposition.  Some predicted that the president's undeniably 
high poll ratings might not translate into votes for PLD 
candidates.  But others have advised us not to underestimate 
the PLD's doctrine of discipline, a holdover from its leftist 
past. 
 
In a campaign ad February 9, the PLD requested voters' 
support to prevent the return of "the shameless ones" who 
were fingered as responsible for high unemployment, 
inflation, devaluation, ruin of small businesses, 
international debt, and bank failures during the past 
administration; whose U.S. visas have been revoked for 
suspected corruption; and who spent more than 20 billion 
pesos (570 million dollars) in municipal funds "without 
accomplishing anything."  Indeed, the PRD's biggest liability 
this election season is public discontent with the lingering 
effects of the nation,s 2003-04 financial crisis. 
 
Races to Watch 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
Two noteworthy races may reveal the strengths and weaknesses 
on both sides.  In the mayor's race in Santo Domingo National 
District (capital city center), effective and popular PLD 
mayor Roberto Salcedo is being challenged for his job by 
politically skillful and well-regarded speaker of the House 
of Representatives Alfredo Pacheco (PRD).  Salcedo has the 
advantage of an incumbent with high approval ratings, but 
Pacheco grew up in Santo Domingo's barrios, has 
Afro-Dominican ancestry, and is viewed as a "man of the 
pueblo" in contrast to the middle-class mayor.  Thanks to his 
congressional leadership, Pacheco has good relations with the 
government and the major parties.  He conducted his first 
campaign activity virtually devoid of PRD flags or symbols, 
to dissociate himself from the Mejia debacle.  In fact, 
Pacheco was never close to Mejia and opposed his wishes on 
several occasions.  If Pacheco wins, he would boost his 
potential as a possible future presidential candidate. 
 
The other bellwether campaign is the senate race in Santiago, 
the northern regional capital.  Attorney General Dominguez 
Brito, the PLD's candidate for senator from this politically 
important province, is trying for this seat a second time ) 
having been deprived of victory in 2002 by PRD-engineered 
shenanigans, say many of our contacts.  One of Fernandez's 
most effective ministers, Dominguez Brito credibly aspires to 
become a future presidential candidate.  The self-proclaimed 
opposition alliance candidate (to be confirmed) is PRD elder 
Jose Rafael Abinader, a university rector, businessman, and 
unsuccessful pre-candidate for president in 2004.  With his 
wealth, PRD following, and expected support of the locally 
strong PRSC, he would be a credible contender. 
 
¶2.  (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell 
 
¶3.  (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted 
at our SIPRNET web site 
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo)  along with 
extensive other material. 
HERTELL