This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN JOSE 000331 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/CEN 
WHA FOR WMIELE 
WHA/EPSC FOR KURS, LGUMBINER 
STATE PASS TO USTR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD ELAB PGOV PREL CS
SUBJECT: ELECTION RESULTS EMBOLDEN ANTI-CAFTA-DR FORCES 
 
REF: SAN JOSE 305 
 
Summary 
-------- 
¶1. (U) Public sector labor unions and other opponents of 
CAFTA-DR are trying to capitalize on the February 5 election 
results to stop treaty ratification in Costa Rica.  They 
claim that the better-than-expected showing for presidential 
candidate Otton Solis, a treaty critic, nullifies the 
Legislative Assembly's "political legitimacy" to continue 
deliberations on CAFTA-DR.  The Assembly's International 
Relations Committee chairman decided to suspend action on the 
treaty until after the winner of the presidential election is 
officially announced, possibly as late as March 17.  End 
summary. 
 
Spin Zone 
--------- 
¶2. (U) Anti-CAFTA-DR forces in Costa Rica are choosing to 
read the results of the presidential election as a victory. 
Their candidate, Otton Solis, did much better than anyone had 
expected and virtually tied Oscar Arias, a treaty advocate, 
with 40 percent of the vote.  Solis's vice presidential 
candidate Epsy Campbell said after the election:  "The future 
of CAFTA-DR will never be the same.  This will give impetus 
to a process of dialogue involving all sectors seeking 
renegotiation (of the treaty)."  Labor union leader Albino 
Vargas crowed that the election was "a deafening defeat of 
the neoliberal oligarchy supporting CAFTA-DR." 
 
Threats of Street Demonstrations 
-------------------------------- 
¶3. (U) On February 8, an anti-CAFTA-DR coalition of public 
sector labor union leaders, led by Vargas, plus rice growers 
and small farmers (representing a small minority of the 
agricultural sector) wrote a letter to the members of the 
Legislative Assembly saying that the Assembly had "lost 
political legitimacy to continue with the ratification 
process of CAFTA-DR."  They also warned that if the Assembly 
were to continue to hold hearings on CAFTA-DR, "it would be 
an extremely dangerous provocation destabilizing the country 
through a street confrontation that will be more than fiery." 
 
Skittish Reaction 
----------------- 
¶4. (U) Rolando Lacle, chairman of the Legislative Assembly's 
International Affairs and Trade committee, where CAFTA-DR 
hearings were scheduled to recommence this week, announced on 
February 9:  "We have to wait for an electoral result to know 
how the president-elect wants to handle this matter."  It is 
therefore possible that the committee will suspend action on 
CAFTA-DR until March 17.  Lacle was supported in his decision 
by the anti-CAFTA-DR members of the committee and by 
President Pacheco who intimated that treaty ratification is 
best left to the incoming Assembly, which takes office on May 
¶1. 
 
PAC-Labor Union Pact 
-------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) Meanwhile, Otton Solis is holding a series of 
meetings with some of the 200 "leaders of social and 
productive organizations" with whom he and his Citizens' 
Action Party (PAC) entered into a "Social Pact for the Mother 
Country" on the eve of the election.  The pact commits the 
signatories to "negotiate a new free trade agreement with the 
United States," to "defend the Costa Rican Electricity 
Institute (ICE)," whose monopoly status would be affected by 
CAFTA-DR, and to "strengthen our food sovereignty" (read 
restrict rice imports), among other things.  Solis told the 
press, whether as president or as leader of the opposition, 
he will cooperate closely with "civil society" (read public 
sector labor unions). 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶6. (SBU) CAFTA-DR was not debated in any significant way 
during the election campaign and was not the reason for the 
close vote between Arias and Solis (see reftel).  Further, to 
say that the 40 percent of voters who supported Solis are 
against CAFTA-DR is not supported by polling data.  According 
to a University of Costa Rica poll conducted in late 
November, more Solis supporters think CAFTA-DR is good for 
Costa Rica (43.7 percent) than think it is bad (34.5 
percent).  (Note:  For Arias supporters, the percentages are 
71.3 and 11.2, respectively.) 
 
¶7. (SBU) Time and again during the Pacheco administration the 
public sector labor unions have threatened, and Pacheco and 
his party members (like Rolando Lacle) have backed down. 
Nearly two thirds of the current Legislative Assembly and 
about the same number in the newly elected Legislative 
Assembly support CAFTA-DR.  Opponents of the treaty know that 
a vote would not go their way, so their strategy is to delay 
any legislative action on the treaty as long as possible, 
until, finally, the clock runs out.  If CAFTA-DR is killed in 
Costa Rica, it will not be a climactic event but a death from 
an endless succession of delays. 
LANGDALE