This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN JOSE 000305 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CS
SUBJECT: VOTER DISAFFECTION WITH POLITICAL CLASS LEADS TO 
TIGHT PRESIDENTIAL RACE 
 
REF: A. SAN JOSE 283 
 
     ¶B. SAN JOSE 270 
 
Summary 
-------- 
¶1. (SBU) Although the two leading candidates for president 
have clearly defined and well known positions on CAFTA-DR -- 
Oscar Arias is for, and Otton Solis against -- treaty 
ratification was not the key issue in the election or the 
cause for Solis's higher-than-expected showing in the 
presidential vote.  Rather voters were moved in one direction 
or another depending on their attitude toward the traditional 
political class, which Arias epitomizes, and their feeling 
about Arias himself, whom many regard as imperious and far 
removed from the reality of most Costa Ricans.  In the end, 
these negatives for Arias nearly outweighed his stature, 
experience, ability, money, and strong party organization. 
End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Polls leading up to the February 5 election showed 
leftist candidate Otton Solis closing in on centrist 
frontrunner Oscar Arias, but with Arias maintaining a very 
comfortable lead of 11-19 percent (ref B).  The result, 
however, was quite different -- a virtual tie, with Arias 
perhaps edging out Solis by less than one half of one percent 
(ref A).  Political commentators are now trying to sort out 
the reasons why an upstart like Otton Solis with little money 
and not much of an organization did so well against the 
greatest political force in the country, the National 
Liberation Party (PLN), and its most illustrious 
representative, former president and Nobel laureate Oscar 
Arias. 
 
Solis -- Capitalizing on Disaffection 
------------------------------------- 
¶3. (SBU) Solis created his Citizens' Action Party (PAC) in 
2000 as an anti-corruption, anti-politics-as-usual, 
anti-traditional-party party and, in PAC's first electoral 
venture (in 2002), won 14 seats in the 57-member Legislative 
Assembly and 26 percent of the presidential vote.  This 
result for a newly minted party was nothing less than 
stunning.  Because neither the PLN presidential candidate nor 
the candidate of the Social Christian Unity Party (PUSC), the 
other traditional party in what until that moment had been 
essentially a two-party political system, won 40 percent of 
the vote, Solis, who came in third, forced the first-ever 
runoff election between the two traditional party candidates, 
with PUSC candidate Abel Pacheco ultimately winning. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Solis's strength then, as now, came from the urban, 
educated classes who felt that the PLN and the PUSC which had 
existed in one form or another for over 50 years, were closed 
clubs where favors were traded.  The traditional parties, 
Solis supporters believed, existed for the benefit of their 
own members, not for the benefit of the country as a whole. 
 
¶5. (SBU) This disaffection was greatly heightened during the 
four years of the Pacheco administration (2002-06).  In late 
2004, two former PUSC presidents -- Rafael Angel Calderon 
(1990-94) and Miguel Angel Rodriguez (1998-02) -- were 
arrested for taking alleged kickbacks from private companies 
which had been granted public concessions.  Former PLN 
president Jose Maria Figueres (1994-98) is also widely 
believed to have received a kickback, USD 900,000 from French 
telecom company Alcatel, though Figueres claims the money was 
a legitimate fee.  (Note:  Arias, who originally distanced 
himself from Figueres, inexplicably and unwisely seemed to 
defend him of late.)  President Pacheco, who had received 
illegal campaign contributions in 2002, is not suspected of 
having enriched himself illegally or of having committed any 
prosecutable corrupt acts; however, polls show that Costa 
Ricans believe him to be the worst president the country has 
had since Rodrigo Carazo (1978-82).  Because of the actions 
of Calderon, Rodriguez, and Pacheco, PUSC went into the 
election as an almost completely discredited party.  PLN was 
also tainted, and for many Costa Ricans who are not political 
insiders PUSC and PLN are flip sides of the same coin. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Solis ran for president in 2006, like in 2002, as 
the "anti" candidate.  He was against CAFTA-DR, against the 
opening of state monopolies, but, more than anything, against 
the closed, private clubs that were the traditional political 
parties.  His most attractive quality was being neither PUSC 
nor PLN.  Former PUSC officials as well as former PUSC 
voters, who recognized that PUSC had no chance in the 2006 
presidential election, naturally gravitated to PAC.  (Note: 
According to Arias, former president Calderon, still a PUSC 
boss, told his local party leaders throughout the country to 
urge followers to support PUSC legislative candidates but to 
vote for Solis for president.)  Moreover, Solis actively 
courted the PUSC supporters; Arias did not. 
 
Arias -- A Man Above The People 
------------------------------- 
¶7. (SBU) Arias wanted to be a candidate somehow above the 
fray.  Although Arias is a committed democrat, he certainly 
believed that in his case an election was a mere formality 
and inconvenient necessity.  He occasionally complained about 
attacks against him but did not deign to respond in kind. 
When challenged by Solis to a debate, Arias answered through 
the press that he was so far ahead of Solis in the polls that 
a debate was superfluous, i.e. it could not possibly affect 
the election result.  Arias did not enjoy appearing in public 
except when he could show off his powerful friends like 
former Spanish premier Felipe Gonzalez or John Kennedy's 
niece.  Arias appeared to be a man above the people. 
 
Lack of Debate on CAFTA-DR 
-------------------------- 
¶8. (SBU) The presidential election did not hinge on a 
differentiation with regard to economic and trade issues, but 
on a feeling of alienation from the political class 
represented by the traditional political parties and on 
voters' attitude towards Oscar Arias, whom people either like 
or hate.  Although both Arias and Solis have clearly defined 
and well known views on CAFTA-DR (Arias pro, and Solis con), 
the treaty was scarcely mentioned by either candidate during 
the campaign.  Arias talked mostly about the need to rebuild 
the country's infrastructure and invest in education.  Solis 
talked about honesty and transparency in government and 
consistently and aggressively attacked Arias. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The better measure of the country ideologically is 
the legislative election.  The ballot for Legislative 
Assembly contains long party lists, and voters make their 
decision based on party affiliations and ideological 
inclinations, not on personalities of the day.  So while 
Arias and Solis virtually tied for president at 40 percent 
each, PLN in the Assembly got 36.4 percent of the vote 
compared with PAC's 25.8 percent.  The Assembly, far more 
than the outcome in the presidential race, represents the 
panoply of political loyalties in Costa Rica and will thus 
have members from eight different parties and a majority in 
favor of free trade. 
LANGDALE